--- title: "Valuation Lens — October 1, 2026" type: "valuation_lens" date: "2026-10-01" data_cutoff: "2026-10-02T12:00:00Z" status: "final" schema_version: "3.4.0" methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4" run_id: "cxpw_valuation_lens_20261001_001" canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-10-01/" publisher: "CXProWealth" --- # Valuation Lens — October 1, 2026 > Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts. **Data cutoff:** Oct 2, 2026, 8:00 AM EDT **One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.58% (TREASURY_1Y) **Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4 ## Overall **A 4.58% one-year Treasury is the hurdle every asset must clear: US equities carry a near-zero forward equity risk premium against a 5.26% ten-year yield and record corporate profit share, while Chinese equities, REITs and investment-grade bonds price in materially more compensation.** One-year Treasuries pay 4.58% on an investment basis with a 2.91% ten-year real yield behind them, so every risk asset is competing against an unusually well-paid, low-uncertainty alternative. ## Asset classes, cheap to expensive | Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | | China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +1.7 | Cheap | 113.4 | 101.4–125.7 | +13.4% | +9.5% | +4.9% | | Real Estate | VNQ | +1.1 | Somewhat cheap | 105.6 | 97.6–113.8 | +5.6% | +7.5% | +2.9% | | Fixed Income | BND | +0.7 | Somewhat cheap | 101.8 | 97.8–105.9 | +1.8% | +5.6% | +1.0% | | Crypto | BTC-USD | -0.1 | Fair | 99.1 | 79.1–119.6 | -0.9% | +2.0% | -2.6% | | Japan Equities | EWJ | -1.0 | Somewhat expensive | 94.6 | 86.6–102.8 | -5.4% | +6.5% | +1.9% | | Energy | USO | -1.1 | Somewhat expensive | 91.4 | 79.4–103.7 | -8.6% | +1.5% | -3.1% | | Europe Equities | VGK | -1.2 | Somewhat expensive | 93.6 | 85.6–101.8 | -6.4% | +7.0% | +2.4% | | Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | -1.5 | Expensive | 89.5 | 79.5–99.8 | -10.5% | +5.5% | +0.9% | | Metals | GLD | -1.6 | Expensive | 86.4 | 74.4–98.7 | -13.6% | +1.0% | -3.6% | | US Equities | SPY | -2.1 | Expensive | 87.6 | 79.6–95.8 | -12.4% | +5.0% | +0.4% | | Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -2.1 | Expensive | 87.6 | 79.6–95.8 | -12.4% | +4.0% | -0.6% | ### China & Hong Kong Equities — +1.7 (Cheap) Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market) **Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 90.8, P25 101.4, median 113.4, P75 125.7, P90 137.0. The market price sits at the 22.5th percentile of that distribution. **One-year modeled return:** median +9.5%, P10 -22.0% to P90 +36.0%. Decomposition of a 7.57% reported earnings yield into a 1.99% cash distribution, mid-to-high single-digit local earnings growth and a partial valuation-convergence term, with wide policy-outcome dispersion applied symmetrically around the central path. ### Real Estate — +1.1 (Somewhat cheap) Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate) **Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 90.5, P25 97.6, median 105.6, P75 113.8, P90 121.3. The market price sits at the 31.8th percentile of that distribution. **One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -16.0% to P90 +24.0%. Distribution income plus same-store net operating income growth and modest cash-flow-multiple drift, with cap-rate scenarios driven by the ten-year real yield providing the dispersion. ### Fixed Income — +0.7 (Somewhat cheap) Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market) **Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 94.3, P25 97.8, median 101.8, P75 105.9, P90 109.7. The market price sits at the 38.1th percentile of that distribution. **One-year modeled return:** median +5.6%, P10 -2.5% to P90 +12.0%. Starting yield to maturity of 5.55% as the dominant anchor, plus a duration-weighted price effect of plus or minus roughly 1.4% per 25 basis points of yield change, with a modest credit-loss deduction for the corporate sleeves. **Probability note:** the 60% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%. ### Crypto — -0.1 (Fair) Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin) **Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 61.3, P25 79.1, median 99.1, P75 119.6, P90 138.3. The market price sits at the 51.2th percentile of that distribution. **One-year modeled return:** median +2.0%, P10 -48.0% to P90 +62.0%. No carry or cash flow, so the distribution is price change only: a near-zero central drift against a 4.58% risk-free alternative, with dispersion set from the asset's own realized volatility characteristics rather than from a valuation model. The width of this range, not its centre, is the decision-relevant output. ### Japan Equities — -1.0 (Somewhat expensive) Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market) **Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 79.5, P25 86.6, median 94.6, P75 102.8, P90 110.3. The market price sits at the 67.1th percentile of that distribution. **One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +23.0%. A 3.66% distribution yield plus continuing buybacks, mid-single-digit earnings growth and a modest negative valuation-drift term, with currency translation left unhedged and treated as dispersion rather than as a central expectation. ### Energy — -1.1 (Somewhat expensive) Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil) **Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 68.8, P25 79.4, median 91.4, P75 103.7, P90 115.0. The market price sits at the 68.1th percentile of that distribution. **One-year modeled return:** median +1.5%, P10 -30.0% to P90 +30.0%. Crude-linked sleeve returns track the official forward price path less roll and holding costs; producer-equity returns combine free cash flow and shareholder yield on normalized oil prices. Supply-disruption risk is carried in the upper tail rather than in the central path. **Probability note:** the 43% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 61%. ### Europe Equities — -1.2 (Somewhat expensive) Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market) **Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.5, P25 85.6, median 93.6, P75 101.8, P90 109.3. The market price sits at the 70.0th percentile of that distribution. **One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +24.0%. A 3.07% distribution yield plus mid-single-digit earnings growth less a modest valuation-drift term, with currency translation carried as dispersion rather than as a central expectation. ### Emerging Markets Equities — -1.5 (Expensive) Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index) **Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 70.7, P25 79.5, median 89.5, P75 99.8, P90 109.1. The market price sits at the 75.4th percentile of that distribution. **One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +27.0%. A 1.66% distribution yield plus high-single-digit nominal earnings growth less a valuation-drift term, with semiconductor-cycle and currency outcomes supplying most of the dispersion. ### Metals — -1.6 (Expensive) Benchmark: GLD (Gold) **Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 63.8, P25 74.4, median 86.4, P75 98.7, P90 110.0. The market price sits at the 77.1th percentile of that distribution. **One-year modeled return:** median +1.0%, P10 -24.0% to P90 +26.0%. Gold produces no cash flow, so the distribution is price change less holding costs. The central path is near zero: continued official-sector demand against the drag of a 2.91% real yield. Reserve-diversification acceleration and a real-yield decline populate the upper tail. **Probability note:** the 42% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 72%. ### US Equities — -2.1 (Expensive) Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index) **Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 72.5, P25 79.6, median 87.6, P75 95.8, P90 103.3. The market price sits at the 84.5th percentile of that distribution. **One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -17.0% to P90 +22.0%. Decomposition into sustainable earnings growth below the consensus mid-teens pace, roughly 3% shareholder yield from dividends and net buybacks, and a negative valuation-drift term reflecting the gap between a 19.2x forward multiple and the rate-adjusted justified multiple. ### Developed Pacific Equities — -2.1 (Expensive) Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market) **Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 72.5, P25 79.6, median 87.6, P75 95.8, P90 103.3. The market price sits at the 84.5th percentile of that distribution. **One-year modeled return:** median +4.0%, P10 -18.0% to P90 +20.0%. A 2.83% distribution yield plus low-to-mid single-digit earnings growth less a valuation-drift term, with commodity-price and currency outcomes supplying the dispersion. ## Sources 1. Earnings Insight, September 25, 2026 — FactSet Research Systems — https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_092526.pdf 2. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) — Fund Characteristics — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239665/ishares-msci-japan-etf 3. iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) — Fund Characteristics — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239619/ishares-msci-china-etf 4. iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) — Fund Characteristics — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239637/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-etf 5. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) — Fund Characteristics — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239607/ishares-msci-australia-etf 6. iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF (IEUR) — Fund Characteristics — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/264617/ishares-core-msci-europe-etf 7. iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) — Fund Characteristics — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239726/ishares-core-sp-500-etf 8. iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR) — Fund Characteristics — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239520/ishares-us-real-estate-etf 9. iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) — Portfolio Characteristics — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239458/ishares-core-total-us-bond-market-etf 10. Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ 11. Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 — Central Banks — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026/central-banks 12. Strength in REIT Operations Underpins Strong Investment Performance — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/news/blog/market-commentary/strength-reit-operations-underpins-strong-investment-performance 13. Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates — U.S. Department of the Treasury — https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026 14. Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1) — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System — https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/ 15. Gross Domestic Product and Corporate Profits (NIPA) — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis — https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product 16. Consumer Price Index — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ 17. Effective Federal Funds Rate — Federal Reserve Bank of New York — https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr 18. National Financial Conditions Index — Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago — https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/nfci/current-data --- This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.