---
title: "Valuation Lens — September 30, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-09-30"
data_cutoff: "2026-10-01T03:12:37Z"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "vl_20260930_cxpw_v340_001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-09-30/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — September 30, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Sep 30, 2026, 11:12 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.58% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Market price sits above modelled economic value in US equities, Developed Pacific, metals and energy, while China, emerging markets and investment-grade bonds screen below it; with the 1-year Treasury at 4.58% the cash hurdle is high for every asset class.**

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.58% and a 10-year real yield of 2.91% at the top of its twenty-year range set an unusually high opportunity cost against which every risk asset must be valued.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +2.1 | Cheap | 115.9 | 105.7–128.0 | +15.9% | +9.0% | +4.4% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +1.6 | Cheap | 109.0 | 100.5–118.1 | +9.0% | +11.0% | +6.4% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.4 | Somewhat cheap | 100.7 | 97.5–103.1 | +0.7% | +5.3% | +0.7% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +0.3 | Fair | 101.2 | 94.4–107.6 | +1.2% | +7.5% | +2.9% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.1 | Fair | 101.1 | 82.7–122.7 | +1.1% | +4.0% | -0.6% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.4 | Somewhat expensive | 98.1 | 89.8–107.4 | -1.9% | +6.5% | +1.9% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -1.0 | Somewhat expensive | 95.8 | 89.4–102.6 | -4.2% | +5.5% | +0.9% |
| Energy | USO | -1.0 | Somewhat expensive | 90.7 | 78.5–105.1 | -9.3% | -9.0% | -13.6% |
| Metals | GLD | -1.4 | Expensive | 88.9 | 78.7–101.0 | -11.1% | +1.0% | -3.6% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.6 | Expensive | 92.8 | 86.4–99.6 | -7.2% | +4.5% | -0.1% |
| US Equities | SPY | -2.0 | Expensive | 87.9 | 78.6–96.3 | -12.1% | +4.5% | -0.1% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +2.1 (Cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 97.0, P25 105.7, median 115.9, P75 128.0, P90 138.6. The market price sits at the 14.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.0%, P10 -26.0% to P90 +40.0%. Total return decomposed into a 2.0% shareholder yield, roughly 8% earnings growth and a partial valuation convergence of about 4 percentage points toward the modelled fair-value median, with dispersion widened to reflect a 20.8% three-year standard deviation and policy and geopolitical risk.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +1.6 (Cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 93.0, P25 100.5, median 109.0, P75 118.1, P90 126.1. The market price sits at the 23.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +11.0%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +36.0%. Total return decomposed into a 3.1% shareholder yield, roughly 12% earnings growth consistent with the reported 15.6% forward growth rate discounted for semiconductor cyclicality, and about 2 percentage points of valuation convergence.

### Fixed Income — +0.4 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 94.8, P25 97.5, median 100.7, P75 103.1, P90 104.9. The market price sits at the 44.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.3%, P10 -1.5% to P90 +11.8%. Starting yield to maturity of 5.54% less the 0.03% expense ratio and a few basis points of expected credit loss, plus a duration-weighted price effect across the justified-yield scenario set using 5.6 years of duration and a partial-roll adjustment.

**Probability note:** the 55% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Europe Equities — +0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.4, P25 94.4, median 101.2, P75 107.6, P90 113.3. The market price sits at the 44.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +24.0%. Total return decomposed into a 4.25% shareholder yield from the 2.75% dividend yield plus estimated net buybacks, roughly 8% earnings growth against a reported 10.4% forward rate, and a small valuation adjustment toward the modelled fair-value median.

### Crypto — +0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 67.0, P25 82.7, median 101.1, P75 122.7, P90 141.9. The market price sits at the 48.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.0%, P10 -48.0% to P90 +78.0%. Price-change-only distribution with no carry or cash flow, centred on a small positive drift net of the drag from a 2.91% real risk-free rate, with quantiles set from the asset's realised dispersion rather than from a fitted parametric return model.

### Real Estate — -0.4 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.5, P25 89.8, median 98.1, P75 107.4, P90 115.7. The market price sits at the 55.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -12.0% to P90 +20.5%. Total return decomposed into a distribution yield of roughly 3.9%, funds-from-operations growth moderated to about 5% from the reported 14.8% first-quarter rate toward the 3.8% same-store net-operating-income rate, less about 2 percentage points of cap-rate drift.

### Japan Equities — -1.0 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.7, P25 89.4, median 95.8, P75 102.6, P90 108.6. The market price sits at the 66.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -17.0% to P90 +23.0%. Total return decomposed into an estimated shareholder yield of roughly 3.2% including buybacks, about 7% nominal earnings growth, and roughly 4 percentage points of multiple compression toward the modelled fair-value median; dispersion is widened for unhedged yen exposure for a US-dollar investor.

### Energy — -1.0 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 68.0, P25 78.5, median 90.7, P75 105.1, P90 118.0. The market price sits at the 67.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -9.0%, P10 -38.0% to P90 +28.0%. Spot path anchored on the official forecast of Brent falling from roughly 90 US dollars per barrel in the second half of 2026 toward a 74 US dollar average in 2027, partially offset by an estimated positive roll yield of three to five percentage points while inventories keep drawing and the curve stays backwardated.

**Probability note:** the 31% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 61%.

### Metals — -1.4 (Expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 70.0, P25 78.7, median 88.9, P75 101.0, P90 111.6. The market price sits at the 73.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +1.0%, P10 -24.0% to P90 +24.0%. Price-change-only distribution with no carry and a small negative holding cost, balancing continued official-sector accumulation against a 2.91% real ten-year yield and evidence of price-driven demand destruction in the physical market.

**Probability note:** the 43% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 72%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.6 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 80.7, P25 86.4, median 92.8, P75 99.6, P90 105.6. The market price sits at the 76.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.5%, P10 -15.0% to P90 +19.5%. Total return decomposed into a shareholder yield of roughly 4.4% built on the 3.89% standardised yield, about 5% earnings growth constrained by the banking and resource concentration, and roughly 5 percentage points of multiple compression toward the modelled fair-value median.

### US Equities — -2.0 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 70.3, P25 78.6, median 87.9, P75 96.3, P90 103.5. The market price sits at the 83.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.5%, P10 -18.0% to P90 +23.5%. Total return decomposed into a shareholder yield of roughly 2.6% from the 1.09% dividend yield plus estimated net buybacks, forward earnings growth of about 10% consistent with the gap between the 24.98x trailing and 21.19x forward index multiples, less roughly 8 percentage points of multiple compression toward the modelled fair-value median. Earnings carry is high, which is why the median stays positive despite the valuation drag.

## Sources

1. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) — Fund and Index Characteristics — State Street Global Advisors — https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/spdr-sp-500-etf-trust-spy
2. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) — Portfolio Characteristics — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239665/ishares-msci-japan-etf
3. iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) — Portfolio Characteristics — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239619/ishares-msci-china-etf
4. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) — Portfolio Characteristics — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239607/ishares-msci-australia-etf
5. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) — Portfolio Fundamentals and Credit Quality — The Vanguard Group — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/bnd/vanguard-total-bond-market-etf
6. Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) — Portfolio Fundamentals — The Vanguard Group — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vgk/vanguard-ftse-europe-etf
7. Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) — Portfolio Fundamentals — The Vanguard Group — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vwo/vanguard-ftse-emerging-markets-etf
8. Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) — Portfolio Fundamentals — The Vanguard Group — https://www.vanguardoffshore.com/en/product/etf/equity/0986/vanguard-real-estate-etf
9. Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
10. Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026
11. 2026 Mid-Year Update: REITs Rebound, Poised for Future Gains and Growth — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/news/blog/market-commentary/2026-mid-year-update-reits-rebound-poised-future-gains-and-growth
12. Current price of Bitcoin for Sept. 30, 2026 — Fortune — https://fortune.com/article/price-of-bitcoin-09-30-2026/

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.