---
title: "Valuation Lens — September 29, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-09-29"
data_cutoff: "2026-09-30T03:11:00Z"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "vl_2026-09-29_cxpw_v340"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-09-29/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — September 29, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Sep 29, 2026, 11:11 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.58% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**A 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield and a 2.91% ten-year real yield reset the hurdle for every asset class: US equities now price at the 87th percentile of their modeled fair-value distribution, while Chinese equities, intermediate bonds and listed real estate still carry positive modeled fair-value gaps.**

The one-year Treasury par yield of 4.58% sits above the 3.88% effective funds rate while the ten-year real yield of 2.91% is at its highest level in a decade, raising the opportunity cost for every risk asset.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +1.4 | Cheap | 112.4 | 99.4–128.2 | +12.4% | +12.0% | +7.4% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.8 | Somewhat cheap | 101.6 | 98.2–104.5 | +1.6% | +5.6% | +1.0% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | +0.1 | Fair | 100.6 | 94.2–107.2 | +0.6% | +6.5% | +1.9% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.1 | Fair | 101.4 | 84.6–120.5 | +1.4% | +6.0% | +1.4% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -0.3 | Fair | 97.7 | 91.6–105.4 | -2.3% | +7.5% | +2.9% |
| Metals | GLD | -0.4 | Somewhat expensive | 97.8 | 86.3–106.6 | -2.2% | +2.0% | -2.6% |
| Energy | USO | -0.6 | Somewhat expensive | 97.5 | 88.2–105.6 | -2.5% | -2.0% | -6.6% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -0.7 | Somewhat expensive | 96.8 | 89.6–104.4 | -3.2% | +7.0% | +2.4% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | -0.7 | Somewhat expensive | 96.1 | 91.0–105.5 | -3.9% | +9.0% | +4.4% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -0.7 | Somewhat expensive | 96.3 | 87.9–105.5 | -3.7% | +7.0% | +2.4% |
| US Equities | SPY | -2.2 | Expensive | 90.2 | 82.5–97.5 | -9.8% | +5.5% | +0.9% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +1.4 (Cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 89.7, P25 99.4, median 112.4, P75 128.2, P90 141.7. The market price sits at the 26.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +12.0%, P10 -26.0% to P90 +43.0%. Decomposed one-year total return: trailing distribution yield of about 2.8% plus buybacks, sustainable earnings growth of about 8% after a policy-risk haircut to consensus, and 25% of the modeled +12.4% fair-value gap converging within the year. The scenario-implied beat probability is read off the modeled return quantiles against the 4.58% one-year Treasury par hurdle and is diagnostic only; it is never promoted to a calibrated probability.

### Fixed Income — +0.8 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 95.8, P25 98.2, median 101.6, P75 104.5, P90 107.1. The market price sits at the 36.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.6%, P10 -2.0% to P90 +13.0%. Starting yield to maturity of 5.44% plus roll-down of about 0.4 percentage points implied by the 68 basis point ten-year-minus-one-year curve slope across a 5.6-year duration, less about 0.08 percentage points of expected credit loss on the 31% non-government sleeve at current spreads, with the price effect of yield changes centred on zero. The P10 and P90 bounds correspond to yield moves of roughly plus and minus 140 basis points. The scenario-implied beat probability is diagnostic only.

**Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Real Estate — +0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.2, P25 94.2, median 100.6, P75 107.2, P90 115.7. The market price sits at the 48.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +22.0%. Distribution yield of roughly 4.1% plus AFFO growth of about 3% (same-store NOI of 4.1% less an annual refinancing drag from resetting 4.2% average debt toward a roughly 6.1% marginal cost across one fifth of the fixed-rate book) plus 30% of the modeled +0.6% fair-value gap converging within the year. The scenario-implied beat probability is diagnostic only and is read against the 4.58% one-year Treasury par hurdle.

### Crypto — +0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 65.5, P25 84.6, median 101.4, P75 120.5, P90 141.2. The market price sits at the 48.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -48.0% to P90 +85.0%. No cash flow, coupon or carry exists, so the modeled return is the change in the premium to aggregate cost basis plus the drift in realized price itself as new supply is acquired at higher levels, with 20% of the modeled +1.4% fair-value gap converging within the year. The quantile width is set from the observed 2025 to 2026 range of MVRV outcomes, including a peak-to-trough drawdown exceeding 50% between October 2025 and mid-2026. The scenario-implied beat probability is diagnostic only.

### Europe Equities — -0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.8, P25 91.6, median 97.7, P75 105.4, P90 113.3. The market price sits at the 54.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +24.5%. Dividend yield of roughly 3.0% plus sustainable earnings growth of about 5.5% after haircutting the 23% implied one-year jump embedded in the trailing-to-forward multiple gap, less 25% of the modeled -2.3% fair-value gap converging within the year. Returns are unhedged, so euro and sterling exposure widens the quantiles. The scenario-implied beat probability is diagnostic only and is read against the 4.58% one-year Treasury par hurdle.

### Metals — -0.4 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 73.6, P25 86.3, median 97.8, P75 106.6, P90 115.8. The market price sits at the 56.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.0%, P10 -24.0% to P90 +27.0%. No cash flow, coupon or carry exists, so the modeled return is expected real price change plus 10-year breakeven inflation of 2.35%, less fund expenses, and less 25% of the modeled -2.2% fair-value gap converging within the year. The real-price component is centred slightly negative because the ten-year real yield sits at its decade high. The scenario-implied beat probability is diagnostic only and is read against the 4.58% one-year Treasury par hurdle.

**Probability note:** the 42% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 71%.

### Energy — -0.6 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 79.5, P25 88.2, median 97.5, P75 105.6, P90 113.5. The market price sits at the 60.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -2.0%, P10 -33.0% to P90 +26.0%. Blended across the class: the commodity sleeve carries the forecast decline in the Brent average from roughly $90 in the second half of 2026 to $74 in 2027 plus roll cost as inventories rebuild, while the producer-equity sleeve carries a dividend yield of roughly 3.3% and free cash flow valued at mid-cycle rather than spot prices. A further 30% of the modeled -2.5% fair-value gap converges within the year. The scenario-implied beat probability is diagnostic only and is read against the 4.58% one-year Treasury par hurdle.

**Probability note:** the 36% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 60%.

### Japan Equities — -0.7 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.7, P25 89.6, median 96.8, P75 104.4, P90 112.3. The market price sits at the 61.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -17.0% to P90 +25.0%. Dividend yield of roughly 2.2% plus sustainable nominal earnings growth of about 6.0%, reflecting the end of deflation and governance-driven capital efficiency, less 25% of the modeled -3.2% fair-value gap converging within the year. Buybacks are treated as inside earnings growth rather than added separately. The benchmark is unhedged, so yen exposure widens the quantiles materially. The scenario-implied beat probability is diagnostic only and is read against the 4.58% one-year Treasury par hurdle.

### Emerging Markets Equities — -0.7 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.7, P25 91.0, median 96.1, P75 105.5, P90 114.7. The market price sits at the 62.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.0%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +32.0%. Dividend yield of roughly 2.8% plus sustainable earnings growth of about 8.5%, reflecting the semiconductor earnings cycle in Taiwan and continued Indian nominal growth, less 25% of the modeled -3.9% fair-value gap converging within the year. Returns are unhedged across many currencies, which widens the quantiles more than for any single-country class. The scenario-implied beat probability is diagnostic only and is read against the 4.58% one-year Treasury par hurdle.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -0.7 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.2, P25 87.9, median 96.3, P75 105.5, P90 113.5. The market price sits at the 61.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -13.0% to P90 +22.5%. Dividend yield of roughly 4.0%, the highest of any equity class here given Australian franking and Singapore bank payouts, plus sustainable earnings growth of about 4.5% on a bank- and materials-weighted base, less 25% of the modeled -3.7% fair-value gap converging within the year. Returns are unhedged across Australian, Singapore and New Zealand dollars. The scenario-implied beat probability is diagnostic only and is read against the 4.58% one-year Treasury par hurdle.

### US Equities — -2.2 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 71.1, P25 82.5, median 90.2, P75 97.5, P90 100.9. The market price sits at the 87.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -16.0% to P90 +22.0%. Sustainable earnings growth of about 7%, well below the 17.6% one-year consensus because that figure is levered off a record profit share, plus a dividend yield of about 1.2%, less 22% of the modeled -9.8% fair-value gap converging within the year. Net buybacks are treated as inside earnings growth rather than added separately to avoid double counting. The scenario-implied beat probability is diagnostic only: the 4.58% one-year Treasury par hurdle sits between the modeled P25 of -3.0% and the median of 5.5%, which the consistency check places in the 50% to 75% band.

## Sources

1. Major Stock Index PE Ratios — worldperatio.com — https://worldperatio.com/major-stock-index-pe-ratios/
2. The State of REITs: September 2026 Edition — 2nd Market Capital Advisory Corp — https://www.2ndmarketcapital.com/2026/09/22/the-state-of-reits-september-2026-edition/
3. Nareit REIT Industry Tracker, Q2 2026 — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/nareit-reit-industry-tracker
4. Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 — Central Banks — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026/central-banks
5. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) — Portfolio Fundamentals and Price — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/bnd/vanguard-total-bond-market-etf
6. Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
7. Onchain Valuation: What Bitcoin's Realized Price Says About 2026 — Amberdata — https://blog.amberdata.io/onchain-valuation-what-bitcoins-realized-price-says-about-2026
8. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio — Metric Definition and Historical Thresholds — CoinGlass — https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/mvrv-ratio
9. MARKET CALL: Raising Our 2026 S&P 500 Target Range Due To Earnings-Led Meltup — Yardeni QuickTakes — https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/market-call-raising-our-2026-s-p-500-target-range-due-to-earnings-led-meltup/
10. Yahoo Finance market snapshot (S&P futures, 10-year Treasury, gold, bitcoin, crude oil) — Yahoo Finance — https://finance.yahoo.com/news/veteran-analyst-reaffirms-p-500-213300942.html
11. Stock Market Valuation — S&P 500 (forward and trailing earnings, equity risk premium) — StreetStats / Overview Markets LLC — https://streetstats.finance/valuation/market
12. Corporate Bonds — Investment Grade & High Yield Bond Yields and Spreads (methodology) — StreetStats / Overview Markets LLC — https://streetstats.finance/rates/corporates
13. ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) — ICE Data Indices, LLC via Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2
14. ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM) — ICE Data Indices, LLC via Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM
15. Emerging markets valuations (trailing and forward P/E, CAPE), month-end August 2026 — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/emerging-markets-valuations/
16. Global P/E ratios by country, month-end August 2026 — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/pe-ratios-by-country/
17. Silver May See Wild Volatility in 2026 Instead of Steady Gains, Warn Experts Amid Sixth Deficit (relaying The Silver Institute, World Silver Survey 2026) — Canadian Mining Report — https://www.canadianminingreport.com/blog/silver-may-see-wild-volatility-in-2026-instead-of-steady-gains-warn-experts-amid-sixth-deficit

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.