---
title: "Valuation Lens — September 21, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-09-21"
data_cutoff: "2026-09-21T22:30:00Z"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "valuation-lens-2026-09-21-260921001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-09-21/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — September 21, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Sep 21, 2026, 6:30 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.45% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Bonds screen cheapest as real yields sit near 20-year highs, while crude oil and gold trade well above modeled fair value and US large caps look modestly rich.**

The 4.45% one-year Treasury par yield sets the annual hurdle, while 10-year nominal (4.96%) and real (2.62%) yields near 20-year highs raise discount rates for long-duration assets.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Fixed Income | BND | +1.6 | Cheap | 103.1 | 100.2–106.3 | +3.1% | +5.4% | +1.0% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +1.2 | Somewhat cheap | 106.9 | 98.1–116.3 | +6.9% | +9.0% | +4.6% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +0.5 | Somewhat cheap | 102.6 | 95.2–110.4 | +2.6% | +7.8% | +3.4% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +0.3 | Fair | 102.0 | 91.9–112.1 | +2.0% | +7.5% | +3.1% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +0.1 | Fair | 100.7 | 92.6–109.4 | +0.7% | +7.0% | +2.6% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | 0.0 | Fair | 99.7 | 77.6–123.3 | -0.3% | +3.0% | -1.5% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.2 | Fair | 99.0 | 92.3–105.7 | -1.0% | +7.0% | +2.6% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -0.9 | Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | 89.3–102.7 | -4.0% | +6.0% | +1.6% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.1 | Somewhat expensive | 94.6 | 87.2–102.4 | -5.4% | +6.5% | +2.1% |
| Metals | GLD | -1.6 | Expensive | 87.5 | 74.9–99.3 | -12.5% | +2.0% | -2.5% |
| Energy | USO | -2.0 | Expensive | 84.2 | 73.9–95.2 | -15.8% | -4.0% | -8.5% |

### Fixed Income — +1.6 (Cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 97.6, P25 100.2, median 103.1, P75 106.3, P90 109.2. The market price sits at the 23.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.4%, P10 -2.3% to P90 +13.1%. Starting-yield carry (about 5.0% aggregate yield) plus modest duration gain from partial yield normalization, less expected credit losses; 1-year dispersion from duration-scaled yield volatility.

**Probability note:** the 56% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +1.2 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 90.4, P25 98.1, median 106.9, P75 116.3, P90 125.1. The market price sits at the 30.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.0%, P10 -15.4% to P90 +33.4%. Building blocks: about 2.8% dividend yield plus about 9% forward EPS growth plus modest partial valuation convergence; dispersion from EM equity volatility including currency.

### Europe Equities — +0.5 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.9, P25 95.2, median 102.6, P75 110.4, P90 117.8. The market price sits at the 40.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.8%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +29.6%. Building blocks: about 3.2% dividend yield plus about 5% forward EPS growth plus small partial valuation convergence; dispersion from European equity volatility in USD terms.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.8, P25 91.9, median 102.0, P75 112.1, P90 121.2. The market price sits at the 44.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -25.8% to P90 +40.8%. Building blocks: about 2.5% dividend yield plus about 6% forward EPS growth with negligible valuation convergence; wide dispersion reflects policy and sentiment volatility.

### Japan Equities — +0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.7, P25 92.6, median 100.7, P75 109.4, P90 117.4. The market price sits at the 47.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -13.5% to P90 +27.5%. Building blocks: about 2.3% dividend yield plus about 6% EPS growth including buybacks, with no valuation convergence; dispersion from Japanese equity volatility in USD terms.

### Crypto — 0.0 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 58.6, P25 77.6, median 99.7, P75 123.3, P90 145.3. The market price sits at the 50.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.0%, P10 -67.5% to P90 +73.5%. No cash flows; a small adoption-driven drift with very wide dispersion from crypto volatility. Low confidence.

### Real Estate — -0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 86.2, P25 92.3, median 99.0, P75 105.7, P90 111.8. The market price sits at the 54.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -16.1% to P90 +30.1%. Building blocks: about 3.9% distribution yield plus about 3-4% normalized FFO growth with no valuation convergence; dispersion from REIT volatility and rate sensitivity.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -0.9 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.2, P25 89.3, median 96.0, P75 102.7, P90 108.8. The market price sits at the 65.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -14.5% to P90 +26.5%. Building blocks: about 3.8% dividend yield plus about 4% EPS growth less a small valuation drag; dispersion from Australian equity volatility in USD terms.

### US Equities — -1.1 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 80.9, P25 87.2, median 94.6, P75 102.4, P90 109.8. The market price sits at the 68.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +27.0%. Building blocks: about 1.2% dividend yield plus about 0.8% net buybacks plus about 10% normalized forward EPS growth, less about 2% from partial valuation convergence and about 3.5% for margin and investment-gain normalization; dispersion from US large-cap volatility.

### Metals — -1.6 (Expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 63.2, P25 74.9, median 87.5, P75 99.3, P90 109.4. The market price sits at the 76.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.0%, P10 -19.8% to P90 +23.8%. No yield; inflation-linked drift and continued central-bank demand offset by partial convergence toward fair value; dispersion from gold volatility.

**Probability note:** the 44% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 71%.

### Energy — -2.0 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 65.0, P25 73.9, median 84.2, P75 95.2, P90 105.5. The market price sits at the 83.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -4.0%, P10 -48.9% to P90 +40.9%. Positive roll yield from a backwardated curve plus collateral interest, offset by expected partial fading of the geopolitical premium in spot crude; very wide dispersion from oil volatility and binary supply risk.

**Probability note:** the 41% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 60%.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-august-7-2026
2. Analysts Increasing EPS Estimates for S&P 500 Companies For 2nd Straight Quarter — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/analysts-increasing-eps-estimates-for-sp-500-companies-for-2nd-straight-quarter
3. Europe P/E Ratio & Earnings Growth – European Equity Valuations — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/europe-pe-ratio/
4. Emerging Markets Equity Valuations 2026 — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/emerging-markets-valuations/
5. 2026–2028 world oil market chronology — Wikipedia — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026%E2%80%932028_world_oil_market_chronology
6. Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026
7. 2026 Mid-Year Update: REITs Rebound, Poised for Future Gains and Growth — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/news/blog/market-commentary/2026-mid-year-update-reits-rebound-poised-future-gains-and-growth
8. Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1) — Federal Reserve Board — https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/
9. Gross Domestic Product and Corporate Profits (NIPA) — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis — https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
10. Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve and Real Yield Curve Rates — U.S. Department of the Treasury — https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve
11. Consumer Price Index — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.