---
title: "Valuation Lens — September 14, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-09-14"
data_cutoff: "2026-09-14T23:00:00Z"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "valuation_lens_2026-09-14_260914001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-09-14/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — September 14, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Sep 14, 2026, 7:00 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.37% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Core bonds screen modestly cheap at a 5.2% portfolio yield, China, Europe and bitcoin sit near modeled fair value, and US equities and crude oil trade well above today's modeled economic value.**

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.37% sets a demanding hurdle, with 10-year nominal (4.97%) and real (2.60%) yields near the top of their 20-year ranges.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.8 | Somewhat cheap | 100.9 | 98.5–101.8 | +0.9% | +5.4% | +1.0% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | 0.0 | Fair | 99.9 | 86.1–106.1 | -0.1% | +7.0% | +2.6% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | 0.0 | Fair | 99.8 | 85.2–120.5 | -0.2% | +3.0% | -1.4% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -0.1 | Fair | 99.7 | 89.6–102.4 | -0.3% | +7.0% | +2.6% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.5 | Somewhat expensive | 98.6 | 92.4–103.1 | -1.4% | +7.1% | +2.7% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -0.8 | Somewhat expensive | 96.2 | 89.5–103.9 | -3.8% | +6.5% | +2.1% |
| Metals | GLD | -0.9 | Somewhat expensive | 96.3 | 88.4–103.5 | -3.7% | +2.0% | -2.4% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | -1.5 | Expensive | 93.5 | 84.7–100.2 | -6.5% | +7.5% | +3.1% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.8 | Expensive | 91.1 | 84.9–96.1 | -8.9% | +5.5% | +1.1% |
| US Equities | SPY | -2.0 | Expensive | 89.3 | 83.9–96.4 | -10.7% | +6.0% | +1.6% |
| Energy | USO | -2.3 | Exceptionally expensive | 80.2 | 75.2–86.9 | -19.8% | -8.0% | -12.4% |

### Fixed Income — +0.8 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 97.2, P25 98.5, median 100.9, P75 101.8, P90 103.3. The market price sits at the 37.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.4%, P10 -1.6% to P90 +12.5%. Starting YTM 5.22% less about 0.1 pp expected credit losses plus about 0.3 pp partial convergence toward median fair value; return dispersion from duration 5.7 years times an assumed 0.95 pp annual yield volatility (sigma about 5.5 pp), treated as symmetric.

**Probability note:** the 57% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — 0.0 (Fair)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 79.7, P25 86.1, median 99.9, P75 106.1, P90 119.7. The market price sits at the 50.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -28.2% to P90 +35.8%. Dividend yield 2.3% plus haircut forward EPS growth of about 5% with no valuation convergence (median fair value near market) less about 0.3 pp risk drag; assumed 25% annual volatility with modest left skew.

### Crypto — 0.0 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 69.9, P25 85.2, median 99.8, P75 120.5, P90 156.4. The market price sits at the 50.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.0%, P10 -54.7% to P90 +86.3%. No cash yield or valuation convergence (median fair value near market); small positive drift from ETF-driven adoption offset by issuance and fees; assumed 55% annual volatility with right skew (left 45%, right 65%).

### Europe Equities — -0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 77.6, P25 89.6, median 99.7, P75 102.4, P90 107.7. The market price sits at the 51.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -17.0% to P90 +26.6%. Dividend yield 2.8% plus net buybacks of about 0.7% plus forward EPS growth of about 3.5% with no valuation convergence (median fair value near market); assumed 17% annual volatility with modest left skew; currency effects assumed neutral.

### Real Estate — -0.5 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.0, P25 92.4, median 98.6, P75 103.1, P90 112.1. The market price sits at the 58.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.1%, P10 -21.1% to P90 +30.2%. Dividend yield 3.3% plus FFO/NOI growth of about 4.0% less about 0.2 pp partial valuation convergence; assumed 20% annual volatility with modest left skew.

### Japan Equities — -0.8 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.2, P25 89.5, median 96.2, P75 103.9, P90 110.8. The market price sits at the 64.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -17.5% to P90 +26.1%. Dividend yield 1.7% plus buyback yield of about 1.0% plus forward EPS growth of about 5.0% less about 0.6 pp partial valuation convergence; USD/JPY effect assumed neutral; assumed 17% annual volatility with modest left skew.

### Metals — -0.9 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.3, P25 88.4, median 96.3, P75 103.5, P90 116.0. The market price sits at the 65.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.0%, P10 -18.5% to P90 +25.1%. No income; central-bank demand and a softer dollar offset by a high real-yield opportunity cost, about 0.6 pp partial valuation convergence and a 0.4% expense ratio; assumed 17% annual volatility with slight right skew (left 16%, right 18%).

**Probability note:** the 45% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 71%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — -1.5 (Expensive)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 76.1, P25 84.7, median 93.5, P75 100.2, P90 107.0. The market price sits at the 74.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -20.7% to P90 +30.6%. Dividend yield 2.0% plus haircut forward EPS growth of about 6.5% less about 1.0 pp partial valuation convergence; assumed 20% annual volatility with modest left skew; currency effects assumed neutral.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.8 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 69.4, P25 84.9, median 91.1, P75 96.1, P90 105.9. The market price sits at the 79.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -19.9% to P90 +26.3%. Dividend yield 3.4% plus forward EPS growth of about 3.5% less about 1.4 pp partial valuation convergence; AUD/USD effect assumed neutral; assumed 18% annual volatility with modest left skew.

### US Equities — -2.0 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 75.5, P25 83.9, median 89.3, P75 96.4, P90 108.2. The market price sits at the 83.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -16.6% to P90 +24.5%. Dividend yield 1.1% plus net buybacks of about 0.5% plus forward EPS growth of about 6.0% (well below the roughly 16% implied by CY2027 consensus, reflecting historical estimate optimism and record margins) less about 1.6 pp partial valuation convergence; assumed 16% annual volatility with left skew (left 17.6%, right 14.4%).

### Energy — -2.3 (Exceptionally expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 69.1, P25 75.2, median 80.2, P75 86.9, P90 101.1. The market price sits at the 89.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -8.0%, P10 -51.6% to P90 +45.8%. EIA-implied WTI decline toward the 2027 price path, partly offset by collateral T-bill income (about 4%) and expected positive roll yield from a backwardated curve (not directly verified); assumed 38% annual volatility with right skew (left 34%, right 42%) given supply-shock risk.

**Probability note:** the 38% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 60%.

## Sources

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5. Shiller PE Ratio — multpl.com — https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
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8. MSCI EMU Index (USD) factsheet — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/255599/msci-emu-index.pdf
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34. iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) fund page — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239456/ishares-710-year-treasury-bond-etf
35. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fund page — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239454/ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf
36. iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) fund page — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239452/ishares-13-year-treasury-bond-etf
37. iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) fund page — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239467/ishares-tips-bond-etf
38. ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) / ICE Data Indices — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A0CM
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44. iShares Global REIT ETF (REET) fund page — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/268752/ishares-global-reit-etf
45. iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (REM) fund page — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239543/ishares-mortgage-real-estate-capped-etf
46. iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF (REZ) fund page — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239545/ishares-residential-and-multisector-real-estate-etf
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55. Record gold prices outpace rising mining costs in Q1'26 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/08/record-gold-prices-outpace-rising-mining-costs-q126
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57. Platinum market surplus of 265 koz forecast for 2026; inventories remain critically depleted — World Platinum Investment Council — https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/platinum-market-surplus-of-265-koz-forecast-for-2026--inventories-remain-critically-depleted-following-three-consecutive-years-of-significant-deficit-302872770.html
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63. VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) statistics — StockAnalysis — https://stockanalysis.com/etf/gdx/
64. Bitcoin price — CoinGecko — https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
65. Bitcoin MVRV ratio — Newhedge — https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/mvrv
66. Bitcoin realized price — Newhedge — https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/realized-price
67. Ethereum price — CoinGecko — https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum
68. Bitcoin ETF Flow – All Data — Farside Investors — https://farside.co.uk/btc/
69. Ethereum ETF Flow – All Data — Farside Investors — https://farside.co.uk/eth/

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.