---
title: "Valuation Lens — September 11, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-09-11"
data_cutoff: "2026-09-11T22:30:00Z"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "vl_2026-09-11_001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-09-11/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — September 11, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Sep 11, 2026, 6:30 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.35% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Today's market price sits above the centre of the modeled fair-value distribution in ten of eleven asset classes; only US investment-grade bonds price below modeled economic value, and the 4.35% one-year Treasury par yield is a genuinely competitive alternative to most risk assets.**

A 4.35% one-year Treasury par yield and a 2.60% ten-year real yield at the top of their ten-year ranges set an unusually demanding hurdle for every long-duration risk asset.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.4 | Somewhat cheap | 101.1 | 97.2–104.2 | +1.1% | +5.6% | +1.3% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | -0.2 | Fair | 96.5 | 78.9–117.6 | -3.5% | +4.0% | -0.4% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.5 | Somewhat expensive | 97.7 | 88.9–105.2 | -2.3% | +6.0% | +1.7% |
| Metals | GLD | -0.9 | Somewhat expensive | 96.3 | 85.4–104.0 | -3.7% | +2.0% | -2.4% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -1.1 | Somewhat expensive | 96.4 | 92.7–103.5 | -3.6% | +8.0% | +3.7% |
| Energy | XLE | -1.1 | Somewhat expensive | 90.0 | 81.1–103.6 | -10.0% | 0.0% | -4.4% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -1.2 | Somewhat expensive | 95.6 | 90.4–102.0 | -4.4% | +7.5% | +3.2% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | -1.2 | Somewhat expensive | 93.5 | 89.4–100.9 | -6.5% | +6.5% | +2.2% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.8 | Expensive | 92.1 | 87.0–99.1 | -7.9% | +6.5% | +2.2% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | -1.8 | Expensive | 96.1 | 88.8–98.7 | -3.9% | +7.5% | +3.2% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -2.3 | Exceptionally expensive | 91.7 | 84.9–94.9 | -8.3% | +5.0% | +0.7% |

### Fixed Income — +0.4 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 94.1, P25 97.2, median 101.1, P75 104.2, P90 107.9. The market price sits at the 43.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.6%, P10 -3.5% to P90 +13.5%. Starting yield-to-maturity of approximately 5.25% plus roll-down, plus 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap over one year, with the return distribution generated from the same justified-yield-regime scenarios used for fair value. Scenario-implied beat probability is read off the modeled return distribution at the 4.35% one-year Treasury par-yield hurdle and is diagnostic only.

**Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Crypto — -0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 71.5, P25 78.9, median 96.5, P75 117.6, P90 138.9. The market price sits at the 53.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.0%, P10 -48.0% to P90 +80.0%. Composite carry of roughly 0.8% from the staked sleeve, plus an adoption and network-growth contribution, plus 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap, with an intentionally very wide return distribution reflecting realized volatility several times that of equities. Scenario-implied beat probability is read off the modeled return distribution at the 4.35% one-year Treasury par-yield hurdle and is diagnostic only.

### Real Estate — -0.5 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.0, P25 88.9, median 97.7, P75 105.2, P90 111.1. The market price sits at the 59.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -16.0% to P90 +23.5%. A 4.1% distribution yield plus sustainable AFFO growth of roughly 3.5% after a modest haircut to the current 12.4% FFO growth rate, plus 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap, with dispersion taken from the cap-rate-spread scenario family. Scenario-implied beat probability is read off the modeled return distribution at the 4.35% one-year Treasury par-yield hurdle and is diagnostic only.

### Metals — -0.9 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 75.2, P25 85.4, median 96.3, P75 104.0, P90 111.2. The market price sits at the 64.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.0%, P10 -21.0% to P90 +24.0%. Composite carry of roughly 0.2% across the sleeve, since bullion pays nothing net of custody fees while miners pay about 1.5%, plus a structural official-sector demand contribution, less 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap. Dispersion is taken from the real-yield and supply-balance scenario families. Scenario-implied beat probability is read off the modeled return distribution at the 4.35% one-year Treasury par-yield hurdle and is diagnostic only.

**Probability note:** the 45% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 71%.

### Europe Equities — -1.1 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 89.9, P25 92.7, median 96.4, P75 103.5, P90 109.7. The market price sits at the 69.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -13.0% to P90 +25.5%. A 4.5% combined distribution and buyback yield, the highest shareholder yield of any equity asset class here, plus roughly 6% sustainable earnings growth after a consensus-optimism haircut, less 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap. Scenario-implied beat probability is read off the modeled return distribution at the 4.35% one-year Treasury par-yield hurdle and is diagnostic only.

### Energy — -1.1 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: XLE (US Energy Sector)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 70.0, P25 81.1, median 90.0, P75 103.6, P90 112.6. The market price sits at the 68.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median 0.0%, P10 -26.0% to P90 +24.0%. A 5.4% combined dividend and buyback yield, less a negative fundamental contribution of roughly 4% as the EIA's forecast oil-price decline works through sector earnings, less 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap. Dispersion is taken from the oil-price scenario family. Scenario-implied beat probability is read off the modeled return distribution at the 4.35% one-year Treasury par-yield hurdle and is diagnostic only.

**Probability note:** the 42% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 60%.

### Japan Equities — -1.2 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.4, P25 90.4, median 95.6, P75 102.0, P90 109.5. The market price sits at the 70.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +26.0%. A 3.3% combined dividend and buyback yield, plus roughly 6.5% sustainable earnings growth from nominal reflation and buyback accretion after a consensus-optimism haircut, less 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap, plus a modest positive contribution from unhedged yen exposure given a broad dollar 2.2% lower year over year. Scenario-implied beat probability is read off the modeled return distribution at the 4.35% one-year Treasury par-yield hurdle and is diagnostic only.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — -1.2 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.4, P25 89.4, median 93.5, P75 100.9, P90 107.3. The market price sits at the 70.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -25.0% to P90 +34.0%. A 4.2% combined dividend and buyback yield, plus roughly 5% earnings growth anchored on the 6% top-down estimate rather than the 14% consensus, less 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap. Dispersion is the second widest of any equity asset class here, reflecting genuine policy and governance uncertainty. Scenario-implied beat probability is read off the modeled return distribution at the 4.35% one-year Treasury par-yield hurdle and is diagnostic only.

### US Equities — -1.8 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 77.6, P25 87.0, median 92.1, P75 99.1, P90 103.7. The market price sits at the 79.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -16.0% to P90 +25.0%. A 2.6% shareholder yield from dividends and net buybacks, plus roughly 7% earnings growth after haircutting the 30% calendar-2026 and 25.2% fourth-quarter consensus estimates for historical optimism bias and record margins, less 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap and a further allowance for margin-normalization risk. Scenario-implied beat probability is read off the modeled return distribution at the 4.35% one-year Treasury par-yield hurdle and is diagnostic only.

### Emerging Markets Equities — -1.8 (Expensive)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 79.0, P25 88.8, median 96.1, P75 98.7, P90 107.9. The market price sits at the 79.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -19.0% to P90 +30.0%. A 3.4% combined dividend and buyback yield, plus roughly 6.5% earnings growth as the semiconductor cycle moderates from an extreme base, less 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap, plus a modest positive contribution from unhedged currency exposure given a broad dollar 2.2% lower year over year. Scenario-implied beat probability is read off the modeled return distribution at the 4.35% one-year Treasury par-yield hurdle and is diagnostic only.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -2.3 (Exceptionally expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.2, P25 84.9, median 91.7, P75 94.9, P90 100.6. The market price sits at the 89.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -13.0% to P90 +19.5%. A 4.4% combined grossed-up distribution and buyback yield, plus roughly 4% earnings growth appropriate to a banking- and resource-dominated index, less 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap, which is the largest negative convergence drag of any equity asset class here. Scenario-implied beat probability is read off the modeled return distribution at the 4.35% one-year Treasury par-yield hurdle and is diagnostic only.

## Sources

1. Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates — U.S. Department of the Treasury — https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve
2. Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1) — Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System — https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/
3. National Income and Product Accounts — GDP and Corporate Profits — U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis — https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
4. Consumer Price Index — U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
5. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026 — FactSet Research Systems — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-august-7-2026
6. FactSet Earnings Insight — FactSet Research Systems — https://www.factset.com/earningsinsight
7. 2026 Mid-Year Update: REITs Rebound, Poised for Future Gains and Growth — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/news/blog/market-commentary/2026-mid-year-update-reits-rebound-poised-future-gains-and-growth
8. Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 — Central Banks — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026/central-banks
9. Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 — Outlook — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026/outlook
10. Short-Term Energy Outlook — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report
11. EIA expects record electricity generation in 2026 and 2027 (STEO press release, 09/09/2026) — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press592.php
12. Emerging Markets Equity Valuations — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/emerging-markets-valuations/
13. Europe P/E (Price-Earnings) and EPS — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/europe-pe-ratio/
14. Global Markets Call: Still A Worldwide Bull Market — Yardeni Research — https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/global-markets-call-still-a-worldwide-bull-market/
15. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) — Fund Profile — The Vanguard Group — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/bnd/vanguard-total-bond-market-etf
16. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) — Fund Profile — BlackRock — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239665/ishares-msci-japan-etf
17. Onchain Valuation: What Bitcoin's Realized Price Says About 2026 — Amberdata — https://blog.amberdata.io/onchain-valuation-what-bitcoins-realized-price-says-about-2026
18. Compelling Valuations in Japan — Hennessy Funds — https://www.hennessyfunds.com/insights/investment-idea-japan-valuations
19. China Equity Strategy: Lowering Targets Amid Macroeconomic and Liquidity Headwinds — Macrostream — https://www.macrostream.ai/articles/6a9e78da1684520b2b7f502c
20. Hong Kong 2026 Investment Outlook: Embracing Reflation and Technology Growth — FSMOne Singapore — https://secure.fundsupermart.com/fsmone/article/rcms348720/hong-kong-2026-investment-outlook-embracing-reflation-and-technology-g
21. S&P 500 sector performance: Energy leads with +42% YTD gain in 2026 — Investing.com — https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/sp-500-sector-performance-energy-leads-with-42-ytd-gain-in-2026-93CH-4883146
22. National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) — Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago — https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/nfci/current-data

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.