---
title: "Valuation Lens — September 10, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-09-10"
data_cutoff: "2026-09-10T21:30:00-04:00"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "valuation-lens-2026-09-10-260910001"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-09-10/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — September 10, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Sep 10, 2026, 9:30 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.28% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Only bonds screen near fair value; oil, Developed Pacific and US equities trade furthest above today's modeled fair value with 10-year real yields at 2.55%.**

The 4.28% 1-year Treasury par yield (investment basis) is the annual hurdle, with an upward-sloping curve (2Y 4.56%, 10Y 4.95%) and a 2.55% 10-year real yield at the top of its 10-year range.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.2 | Fair | 100.3 | 97.7–102.7 | +0.3% | +5.2% | +0.9% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -0.4 | Somewhat expensive | 98.3 | 91.8–105.2 | -1.7% | +8.0% | +3.7% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | -0.4 | Somewhat expensive | 97.5 | 88.2–107.4 | -2.5% | +7.6% | +3.3% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | -0.7 | Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | 87.4–105.6 | -4.0% | +6.3% | +2.0% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | -0.8 | Somewhat expensive | 92.0 | 77.5–108.3 | -8.0% | +3.0% | -1.3% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.9 | Somewhat expensive | 96.5 | 90.3–102.7 | -3.5% | +6.8% | +2.5% |
| Metals | GLD | -1.1 | Somewhat expensive | 92.3 | 81.3–102.6 | -7.7% | +1.0% | -3.3% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -1.4 | Expensive | 94.0 | 88.0–100.8 | -6.0% | +7.3% | +3.0% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.8 | Expensive | 89.5 | 81.4–98.2 | -10.5% | +6.4% | +2.1% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -2.1 | Expensive | 90.0 | 84.1–96.3 | -10.0% | +6.2% | +1.9% |
| Energy | USO | -2.1 | Expensive | 81.5 | 71.1–93.2 | -18.5% | +0.8% | -3.5% |

### Fixed Income — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 95.3, P25 97.7, median 100.3, P75 102.7, P90 104.8. The market price sits at the 46.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.2%, P10 -2.5% to P90 +12.9%. Starting yield-to-maturity carry (about 5.15%) plus 15% partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from a 6% annual volatility assumption for the aggregate bond index.

**Probability note:** the 56% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Europe Equities — -0.4 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 86.2, P25 91.8, median 98.3, P75 105.2, P90 111.7. The market price sits at the 56.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -13.8% to P90 +29.8%. Shareholder yield (3.8%) plus haircut forward EPS growth (4.5%) plus 15% partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from a 17% annual volatility assumption (USD).

### China & Hong Kong Equities — -0.4 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 80.2, P25 88.2, median 97.5, P75 107.4, P90 116.6. The market price sits at the 56.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.6%, P10 -27.0% to P90 +42.2%. Dividend and buyback yield (3.0%) plus haircut forward EPS growth (5.0%) plus 15% partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from a 27% annual volatility assumption (USD).

### Emerging Markets Equities — -0.7 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 80.3, P25 87.4, median 96.0, P75 105.6, P90 114.8. The market price sits at the 61.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.3%, P10 -16.8% to P90 +29.4%. Dividend yield net of issuance (1.9%) plus haircut forward EPS growth (5.0%) plus 15% partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from an 18% annual volatility assumption (USD).

### Crypto — -0.8 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 65.6, P25 77.5, median 92.0, P75 108.3, P90 123.7. The market price sits at the 63.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.0%, P10 -67.5% to P90 +73.5%. No cash yield; fund fee drag (0.25%) plus assumed 4.5% adoption-driven network value growth plus 15% partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from a 55% annual volatility assumption. Very low confidence.

### Real Estate — -0.9 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.7, P25 90.3, median 96.5, P75 102.7, P90 108.4. The market price sits at the 64.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.8%, P10 -17.6% to P90 +31.2%. Distribution yield (3.3%) plus FFO growth (4.0%, below the recent +12.4% pace) plus 15% partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from a 19% annual volatility assumption.

### Metals — -1.1 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 71.0, P25 81.3, median 92.3, P75 102.6, P90 111.5. The market price sits at the 69.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +1.0%, P10 -22.1% to P90 +24.1%. No yield; long-run real appreciation near inflation (2.5%) less fund expenses (0.4%) plus 15% partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from an 18% annual volatility assumption.

**Probability note:** the 43% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 71%.

### Japan Equities — -1.4 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.0, P25 88.0, median 94.0, P75 100.8, P90 107.2. The market price sits at the 72.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.3%, P10 -14.5% to P90 +29.1%. Dividend plus buyback yield (3.2%) plus haircut forward EPS growth (5.0%) plus 15% partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from a 17% annual volatility assumption (USD, unhedged).

### US Equities — -1.8 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 74.4, P25 81.4, median 89.5, P75 98.2, P90 106.2. The market price sits at the 79.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.4%, P10 -14.1% to P90 +26.9%. Shareholder yield (2.1%) plus haircut forward EPS growth (6.0%) plus 15% partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from a 16% annual volatility assumption.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -2.1 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 79.0, P25 84.1, median 90.0, P75 96.3, P90 102.2. The market price sits at the 85.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.2%, P10 -18.2% to P90 +30.6%. Dividend plus buyback yield (3.8%) plus haircut EPS growth (4.0%) plus 15% partial convergence toward median fair value; dispersion from a 19% annual volatility assumption (USD).

### Energy — -2.1 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 62.5, P25 71.1, median 81.5, P75 93.2, P90 104.4. The market price sits at the 85.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +0.8%, P10 -47.9% to P90 +49.5%. Collateral T-bill yield (3.9%) plus 15% partial convergence toward median fair value, with no assumed risk premium; futures roll yield not modeled because the curve was not verified. Dispersion from a 38% annual volatility assumption.

**Probability note:** the 46% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 60%.

## Sources

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50. Index Factsheet: MSCI India Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/255599/msci-india-index-gross-usd.pdf
51. Index Factsheet: MSCI Brazil Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/255599/msci-brazil-index-net.pdf
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77. iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF (REZ) fund page — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239545/ishares-residential-real-estate-capped-etf
78. iShares Mortgage Real Estate ETF (REM) fund page — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239543/ishares-mortgage-real-estate-capped-etf
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88. SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) fund page — State Street Global Advisors — https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/state-street-spdr-sp-oil-gas-exploration-production-etf-xop
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92. Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price (DHHNGSP) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), EIA — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP
93. Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026
94. Record gold prices outpace rising mining costs in Q1'26 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/08/record-gold-prices-outpace-rising-mining-costs-q126
95. Gold is forecast to climb as central banks buy the precious metal — Goldman Sachs — https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/gold-is-forecast-to-climb-as-central-banks-buy-the-precious-metal
96. Gold prices forecast — J.P. Morgan Global Research — https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/gold-prices
97. VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) portfolio — VanEck — https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/gold-miners-etf-gdx/portfolio/
98. World Silver Survey 2026 press release — The Silver Institute — https://silverinstitute.org/elevated-lease-rates-regional-liquidity-tightness-and-robust-investor-interest-resulted-in-record-silver-prices-in-2025/
99. Platinum market surplus of 265 koz forecast for 2026; inventories remain critically depleted — World Platinum Investment Council (via PR Newswire) — https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/platinum-market-surplus-of-265-koz-forecast-for-2026--inventories-remain-critically-depleted-following-three-consecutive-years-of-significant-deficit-302872770.html
100. LME official prices and stocks — Westmetall — https://www.westmetall.com/en/markdaten.php
101. ICSG forecasts copper market surplus in 2026 and 2027 — IndexBox — https://www.indexbox.io/blog/icsg-forecasts-copper-market-surplus-in-2026-and-2027/
102. iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK) fund page — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239655/ishares-msci-global-metals-mining-producers-etf
103. CoinGecko simple price API (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB) — CoinGecko — https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/simple/price?ids=bitcoin,ethereum,solana,ripple,binancecoin&vs_currencies=usd
104. Coin Metrics community API: asset metrics (CapMVRVCur, PriceUSD) — Coin Metrics — https://community-api.coinmetrics.io/v4/timeseries/asset-metrics?assets=btc&metrics=CapMVRVCur,PriceUSD,SplyCur,HashRate&frequency=1d&page_size=3&paging_from=end
105. Hashrate Index — Luxor Hashrate Index — https://hashrateindex.com/
106. Bitcoin Mining Report Q1 2026 — CoinShares — https://coinshares.com/insights/research-data/bitcoin-mining-report-q1-2026/
107. iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) fund page — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf
108. iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) fund page — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/337614/ishares-ethereum-trust-etf
109. Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) — Bitwise — https://bsoletf.com/
110. Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) — Canary Capital — https://canaryetfs.com/xrpc/
111. VanEck BNB ETF (VBNB) overview — VanEck — https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/investments/bnb-etf-vbnb/overview/
112. Lido stETH APR (7-day SMA) API — Lido — https://eth-api.lido.fi/v1/protocol/steth/apr/sma
113. Platinum price — Trading Economics — https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/platinum

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.