---
title: "Valuation Lens — September 9, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-09-09"
data_cutoff: "2026-09-09T21:05:00-04:00"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "2026-09-09_valuation-lens_210500-et"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-09-09/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — September 9, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Sep 9, 2026, 9:05 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.17% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**China & Hong Kong Equities and Emerging Markets Equities screen cheapest against modeled current value, while Energy and Crypto screen most expensive**

The one-year par yield of 4.17% is the annual hurdle every asset class is measured against, and it sits alongside a 10-year real yield of 2.46% in the 99.5th percentile of its own five-year range.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +1.0 | Somewhat cheap | 109.8 | 94.6–121.2 | +9.8% | +12.4% | +8.2% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +0.5 | Somewhat cheap | 104.1 | 92.8–115.1 | +4.1% | +11.2% | +7.0% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.3 | Fair | 100.5 | 97.8–102.9 | +0.5% | +4.8% | +0.6% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +0.2 | Fair | 101.0 | 91.6–110.1 | +1.0% | +8.8% | +4.6% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | +0.1 | Fair | 100.5 | 91.2–109.9 | +0.5% | +6.8% | +2.6% |
| Metals | GLD | +0.1 | Fair | 100.7 | 89.9–109.5 | +0.7% | +2.7% | -1.5% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | 0.0 | Fair | 99.9 | 92.3–108.7 | -0.1% | +9.7% | +5.5% |
| US Equities | SPY | -0.2 | Fair | 98.7 | 90.3–107.2 | -1.3% | +10.1% | +5.9% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -0.2 | Fair | 99.0 | 91.9–105.3 | -1.0% | +8.3% | +4.1% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | -0.4 | Somewhat expensive | 95.5 | 78.1–121.2 | -4.5% | -0.8% | -5.0% |
| Energy | USO | -1.1 | Somewhat expensive | 88.1 | 75.4–103.2 | -11.9% | -3.6% | -7.8% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +1.0 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.5, P25 94.6, median 109.8, P75 121.2, P90 129.6. The market price sits at the 33.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +12.4%, P10 -19.4% to P90 +44.1%. Income or carry plus sustainable economic growth plus a partial convergence of 18% of the modeled fair-value gap over one year, with dispersion set by the asset's own return volatility.

**Probability note:** the 62% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 50%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +0.5 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.9, P25 92.8, median 104.1, P75 115.1, P90 122.0. The market price sits at the 41.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +11.2%, P10 -12.1% to P90 +34.5%. Income or carry plus sustainable economic growth plus a partial convergence of 20% of the modeled fair-value gap over one year, with dispersion set by the asset's own return volatility.

**Probability note:** the 64% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 67%.

### Fixed Income — +0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 95.8, P25 97.8, median 100.5, P75 102.9, P90 104.8. The market price sits at the 45.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.8%, P10 -2.8% to P90 +12.4%. Income or carry plus sustainable economic growth plus a partial convergence of 45% of the modeled fair-value gap over one year, with dispersion set by the asset's own return volatility.

**Probability note:** the 54% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Japan Equities — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.8, P25 91.6, median 101.0, P75 110.1, P90 116.9. The market price sits at the 47.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.8%, P10 -11.7% to P90 +29.3%. Income or carry plus sustainable economic growth plus a partial convergence of 20% of the modeled fair-value gap over one year, with dispersion set by the asset's own return volatility.

### Real Estate — +0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.6, P25 91.2, median 100.5, P75 109.9, P90 116.8. The market price sits at the 48.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.8%, P10 -15.4% to P90 +29.0%. Income or carry plus sustainable economic growth plus a partial convergence of 25% of the modeled fair-value gap over one year, with dispersion set by the asset's own return volatility.

**Probability note:** the 56% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 54%.

### Metals — +0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.2, P25 89.9, median 100.7, P75 109.5, P90 115.1. The market price sits at the 48.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.7%, P10 -18.7% to P90 +24.0%. Income or carry plus sustainable economic growth plus a partial convergence of 22% of the modeled fair-value gap over one year, with dispersion set by the asset's own return volatility.

**Probability note:** the 47% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 71%.

### Europe Equities — 0.0 (Fair)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.3, P25 92.3, median 99.9, P75 108.7, P90 114.6. The market price sits at the 50.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.7%, P10 -10.7% to P90 +30.0%. Income or carry plus sustainable economic growth plus a partial convergence of 22% of the modeled fair-value gap over one year, with dispersion set by the asset's own return volatility.

### US Equities — -0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.5, P25 90.3, median 98.7, P75 107.2, P90 112.9. The market price sits at the 53.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +10.1%, P10 -9.6% to P90 +29.9%. Income or carry plus sustainable economic growth plus a partial convergence of 22% of the modeled fair-value gap over one year, with dispersion set by the asset's own return volatility.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 86.5, P25 91.9, median 99.0, P75 105.3, P90 110.0. The market price sits at the 53.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.3%, P10 -11.6% to P90 +28.1%. Income or carry plus sustainable economic growth plus a partial convergence of 22% of the modeled fair-value gap over one year, with dispersion set by the asset's own return volatility.

**Probability note:** the 60% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 68%.

### Crypto — -0.4 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 64.8, P25 78.1, median 95.5, P75 121.2, P90 143.4. The market price sits at the 55.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -0.8%, P10 -69.0% to P90 +67.4%. Income or carry plus sustainable economic growth plus a partial convergence of 18% of the modeled fair-value gap over one year, with dispersion set by the asset's own return volatility.

### Energy — -1.1 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 67.7, P25 75.4, median 88.1, P75 103.2, P90 111.2. The market price sits at the 68.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -3.6%, P10 -39.7% to P90 +32.6%. Income or carry plus sustainable economic growth plus a partial convergence of 30% of the modeled fair-value gap over one year, with dispersion set by the asset's own return volatility.

**Probability note:** the 40% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 60%.

## Sources

1. Earnings Insight, September 4, 2026 — FactSet Research Systems — https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_090426.pdf
2. Europe P/E Ratio and Earnings Growth - European Equity Valuations — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/europe-pe-ratio/
3. Emerging Markets Equity Valuations 2026 — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/emerging-markets-valuations/
4. Quarterly REIT Performance Data — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/quarterly-reit-performance-data
5. Onchain Valuation: What Bitcoin's Realized Price Says About 2026 — Amberdata — https://blog.amberdata.io/onchain-valuation-what-bitcoins-realized-price-says-about-2026
6. MVRV Explained: Bitcoin's On-Chain Valuation Metric — BIT — https://www.bit.com/knowledge-hub/mvrv-explained
7. Global ex-US equities: Insights and market outlook — J.P. Morgan Asset Management — https://am.jpmorgan.com/lu/en/asset-management/per/insights/market-insights/investment-outlook/global-ex-us-equities/
8. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) product profile — The Vanguard Group — https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/bnd

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.