---
title: "Valuation Lens — September 8, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-09-08"
data_cutoff: "2026-09-09T01:10:00-04:00"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "2026-09-08_valuation-lens_011000-et"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-09-08/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — September 8, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Sep 9, 2026, 1:10 AM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.13% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Emerging markets, real estate and Developed Pacific screen cheapest against today's economics, while US equities, energy and metals price above modeled current value and no asset class carries a publishable calibrated probability of beating the one-year Treasury.**

The one-year Treasury par yield of 4.13% on an investment basis is the annual hurdle, against a 10-year real yield of 2.43% that sits in the 98th percentile of its five-year range.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +1.4 | Cheap | 106.6 | 99.5–113.8 | +6.6% | +11.2% | +7.1% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +1.2 | Somewhat cheap | 106.0 | 98.5–114.8 | +6.0% | +11.3% | +7.2% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | +0.9 | Somewhat cheap | 106.9 | 96.0–117.9 | +6.9% | +8.0% | +3.9% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | +0.8 | Somewhat cheap | 103.9 | 96.7–109.5 | +3.9% | +8.8% | +4.7% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +0.7 | Somewhat cheap | 102.7 | 96.8–108.7 | +2.7% | +8.7% | +4.6% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +0.5 | Somewhat cheap | 101.7 | 96.7–107.5 | +1.7% | +8.7% | +4.6% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.1 | Fair | 100.4 | 95.8–105.4 | +0.4% | +4.7% | +0.6% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | -0.8 | Somewhat expensive | 92.7 | 81.1–108.7 | -7.3% | -0.7% | -4.8% |
| Metals | GLD | -1.0 | Somewhat expensive | 93.5 | 83.0–102.9 | -6.5% | -1.0% | -5.1% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.2 | Somewhat expensive | 93.8 | 85.1–101.7 | -6.2% | +7.9% | +3.8% |
| Energy | USO | -1.2 | Somewhat expensive | 93.0 | 85.4–102.2 | -7.0% | -1.1% | -5.2% |

### Emerging Markets Equities — +1.4 (Cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 94.3, P25 99.5, median 106.6, P75 113.8, P90 118.9. The market price sits at the 26.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +11.2%, P10 -14.4% to P90 +36.9%. Shareholder yield plus sustainable earnings growth plus a 20% partial valuation convergence, dispersed using realized index volatility.

**Probability note:** the 64% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 67%.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +1.2 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 93.8, P25 98.5, median 106.0, P75 114.8, P90 120.3. The market price sits at the 30.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +11.3%, P10 -19.5% to P90 +42.1%. Shareholder yield plus sustainable earnings growth plus a 20% partial valuation convergence, dispersed using realized index volatility.

**Probability note:** the 62% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 50%.

### Real Estate — +0.9 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 89.3, P25 96.0, median 106.9, P75 117.9, P90 124.5. The market price sits at the 34.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -13.8% to P90 +29.8%. Distribution yield plus AFFO growth plus a 20% partial convergence toward modeled fair value.

**Probability note:** the 59% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 54%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — +0.8 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 92.7, P25 96.7, median 103.9, P75 109.5, P90 113.2. The market price sits at the 37.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.8%, P10 -10.4% to P90 +28.0%. Shareholder yield plus sustainable earnings growth plus a 20% partial valuation convergence, dispersed using realized index volatility.

**Probability note:** the 62% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 68%.

### Japan Equities — +0.7 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 92.9, P25 96.8, median 102.7, P75 108.7, P90 112.9. The market price sits at the 38.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.7%, P10 -12.4% to P90 +29.9%. Shareholder yield plus sustainable earnings growth plus a 20% partial valuation convergence, dispersed using realized index volatility.

### Europe Equities — +0.5 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 93.2, P25 96.7, median 101.7, P75 107.5, P90 111.9. The market price sits at the 41.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.7%, P10 -11.8% to P90 +29.2%. Shareholder yield plus sustainable earnings growth plus a 20% partial valuation convergence, dispersed using realized index volatility.

### Fixed Income — +0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 92.5, P25 95.8, median 100.4, P75 105.4, P90 108.9. The market price sits at the 48.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.7%, P10 -3.0% to P90 +12.4%. Starting portfolio yield as the dominant anchor plus a 30% partial convergence toward modeled fair value, reflecting the faster pull-to-par of a bond portfolio.

**Probability note:** the 54% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Crypto — -0.8 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 72.3, P25 81.1, median 92.7, P75 108.7, P90 123.8. The market price sits at the 63.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -0.7%, P10 -71.2% to P90 +69.8%. No contractual cash flow or carry; return is modeled as a 10% partial convergence toward a very wide modeled fair-value distribution.

### Metals — -1.0 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 76.3, P25 83.0, median 93.5, P75 102.9, P90 108.7. The market price sits at the 66.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -1.0%, P10 -21.5% to P90 +19.5%. No contractual carry; return is modeled as a 15% partial convergence toward the modeled fair-value median with wide dispersion.

**Probability note:** the 38% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 71%.

### US Equities — -1.2 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 76.3, P25 85.1, median 93.8, P75 101.7, P90 107.8. The market price sits at the 69.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.9%, P10 -13.9% to P90 +29.6%. Shareholder yield plus sustainable earnings growth plus a 20% partial convergence toward the modeled median fair value, dispersed using the asset class's own realized return volatility.

### Energy — -1.2 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 80.1, P25 85.4, median 93.0, P75 102.2, P90 108.6. The market price sits at the 69.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -1.1%, P10 -36.9% to P90 +34.8%. No contractual carry at the commodity level; return is modeled as a 15% partial convergence toward the modeled fair-value median with wide dispersion.

**Probability note:** the 43% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 60%.

## Sources

1. Earnings Insight — S&P 500 forward P/E, EPS estimates and growth expectations — FactSet Research Systems — https://www.factset.com/earningsinsight
2. Global ex-US equities: insights and market outlook — J.P. Morgan Asset Management — https://am.jpmorgan.com/lu/en/asset-management/per/insights/market-insights/investment-outlook/global-ex-us-equities/
3. 2026 Outlook: public equity views — Cambridge Associates — https://www.cambridgeassociates.com/insight/2026-outlook-public-equity-views/
4. Emerging markets equity valuations — Siblis Research — https://siblisresearch.com/data/emerging-markets-valuations/
5. Compelling valuations in Japan — TOPIX forward earnings and price-to-book — Hennessy Funds — https://www.hennessyfunds.com/insights/investment-idea-japan-valuations
6. Real estate company analysis: NAV and cap rates explained — Winvesta — https://www.winvesta.in/blog/investors/real-estate-company-analysis-nav-and-cap-rates

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.