---
title: "Valuation Lens — September 4, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-09-04"
data_cutoff: "2026-09-04T20:23:53-04:00"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "2026-09-04_valuation-lens_202353-et"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-09-04/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — September 4, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Sep 4, 2026, 8:23 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.11% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Emerging markets look cheapest as U.S. equities remain expensive**

The preferred one-year hurdle is the 4.11% DGS1 Treasury yield, with a 4.77% 10-year nominal yield and 2.42% 10-year real yield.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +2.7 | Exceptionally cheap | 115.5 | 107.6–121.2 | +15.5% | +9.2% | +5.1% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +2.6 | Exceptionally cheap | 116.7 | 108.5–123.5 | +16.7% | +10.5% | +6.4% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +1.6 | Cheap | 106.8 | 100.1–111.6 | +6.8% | +7.0% | +2.9% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | +1.2 | Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | 98.4–110.2 | +5.0% | +6.5% | +2.4% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +1.0 | Somewhat cheap | 102.2 | 96.3–108.0 | +2.2% | +5.2% | +1.1% |
| Metals | GLD | +0.5 | Somewhat cheap | 102.8 | 93.9–111.5 | +2.8% | +2.3% | -1.8% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.3 | Fair | 100.4 | 98.8–102.0 | +0.4% | +5.4% | +1.3% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.1 | Fair | 99.9 | 94.0–105.1 | -0.1% | +5.5% | +1.4% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | -0.2 | Fair | 94.9 | 76.4–111.3 | -5.1% | -0.8% | -4.9% |
| Energy | USO | -2.4 | Exceptionally expensive | 85.6 | 77.2–93.7 | -14.4% | -2.5% | -6.6% |
| US Equities | SPY | -2.8 | Exceptionally expensive | 83.1 | 77.3–88.7 | -16.9% | -0.1% | -4.2% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +2.7 (Exceptionally cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 100.6, P25 107.6, median 115.5, P75 121.2, P90 125.5. The market price sits at the 5.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.2%, P10 -5.1% to P90 +21.9%. valuation_gap_partial_convergence_plus_fundamental_carry_with_asset_specific_uncertainty

**Probability note:** the 69% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 56%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +2.6 (Exceptionally cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 103.1, P25 108.5, median 116.7, P75 123.5, P90 130.3. The market price sits at the 7.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +10.5%, P10 -3.7% to P90 +25.1%. valuation_gap_partial_convergence_plus_fundamental_carry_with_asset_specific_uncertainty

**Probability note:** the 72% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 64%.

### Europe Equities — +1.6 (Cheap)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 94.3, P25 100.1, median 106.8, P75 111.6, P90 116.4. The market price sits at the 23.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -4.7% to P90 +18.4%. valuation_gap_partial_convergence_plus_fundamental_carry_with_asset_specific_uncertainty

**Probability note:** the 66% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — +1.2 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 93.3, P25 98.4, median 105.0, P75 110.2, P90 114.9. The market price sits at the 29.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -4.2% to P90 +17.2%. valuation_gap_partial_convergence_plus_fundamental_carry_with_asset_specific_uncertainty

**Probability note:** the 65% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 63%.

### Japan Equities — +1.0 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 91.8, P25 96.3, median 102.2, P75 108.0, P90 111.8. The market price sits at the 34.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.2%, P10 -5.4% to P90 +15.7%. valuation_gap_partial_convergence_plus_fundamental_carry_with_asset_specific_uncertainty

**Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 57%.

### Metals — +0.5 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 86.5, P25 93.9, median 102.8, P75 111.5, P90 118.5. The market price sits at the 41.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.3%, P10 -14.1% to P90 +19.1%. valuation_gap_partial_convergence_plus_fundamental_carry_with_asset_specific_uncertainty

**Probability note:** the 46% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 66%.

### Fixed Income — +0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 96.7, P25 98.8, median 100.4, P75 102.0, P90 103.6. The market price sits at the 45.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.4%, P10 +1.7% to P90 +8.9%. valuation_gap_partial_convergence_plus_fundamental_carry_with_asset_specific_uncertainty

**Probability note:** the 68% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 65%.

### Real Estate — -0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.5, P25 94.0, median 99.9, P75 105.1, P90 110.4. The market price sits at the 52.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -6.8% to P90 +16.8%. valuation_gap_partial_convergence_plus_fundamental_carry_with_asset_specific_uncertainty

**Probability note:** the 54% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 68%.

### Crypto — -0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 69.1, P25 76.4, median 94.9, P75 111.3, P90 126.3. The market price sits at the 52.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -0.8%, P10 -34.9% to P90 +33.6%. valuation_gap_partial_convergence_plus_fundamental_carry_with_asset_specific_uncertainty

### Energy — -2.4 (Exceptionally expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 69.7, P25 77.2, median 85.6, P75 93.7, P90 100.2. The market price sits at the 89.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -2.5%, P10 -21.4% to P90 +16.1%. valuation_gap_partial_convergence_plus_fundamental_carry_with_asset_specific_uncertainty

**Probability note:** the 32% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 45%.

### US Equities — -2.8 (Exceptionally expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 69.4, P25 77.3, median 83.1, P75 88.7, P90 94.8. The market price sits at the 96.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -0.1%, P10 -11.0% to P90 +10.7%. valuation_gap_partial_convergence_plus_fundamental_carry_with_asset_specific_uncertainty

## Sources

1. MSCI USA Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/984000/msci-usa-index
2. MSCI China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/302400/msci-china-index
3. MSCI Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/939200/msci-japan-index
4. MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/991400/msci-pacific-ex-japan-index
5. MSCI Emerging Markets Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/891800/msci-em-emerging-markets-index-2
6. MSCI Europe Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990500/msci-europe-index
7. MSCI ACWI Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/892400/msci-acwi-index
8. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/bnd/vanguard-total-bond-market-etf
9. iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239458/ishares-core-u-s-aggregate-bond-etf
10. REIT Industry Financial Snapshot — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/reit-industry-financial-snapshot
11. Strength in REIT Operations Underpins Strong Investment Performance — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/news/blog/market-commentary/strength-reit-operations-underpins-strong-investment-performance
12. Short-Term Energy Outlook — Global oil markets — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php
13. Today in Energy Daily Prices — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php
14. Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2026: Point break — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-mid-year-outlook-2026
15. Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 — Outlook — International Energy Agency — https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2026/outlook
16. BTC MVRV by Age Chart — Glassnode — https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/breakdowns.MvrvByAge?a=BTC&c=native&resolution=24h
17. Digital asset fund manager survey — August 2026 — CoinShares — https://etp.coinshares.com/corp/insights/research-data/digital-asset-quarterly-fund-manager-survey-08-2026/

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.