---
title: "Valuation Lens — September 3, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-09-03"
data_cutoff: "2026-09-03T17:13:17-04:00"
status: "intraday"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "2026-09-03_valuation-lens_171317-et"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-09-03/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — September 3, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Sep 3, 2026, 5:13 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.16% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**China and Japan lead value; real estate is priciest**

The preferred one-year hurdle is 4.16%, while the 10-year Treasury and 10-year real yield are 4.79% and 2.45%, respectively.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +2.2 | Cheap | 111.3 | 104.5–118.1 | +11.3% | +10.0% | +5.8% |
| Japan Equities | DXJ | +1.4 | Cheap | 105.3 | 99.4–111.0 | +5.3% | +7.5% | +3.3% |
| Energy | USO | +0.6 | Somewhat cheap | 105.1 | 94.3–117.4 | +5.1% | +6.0% | +1.8% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.5 | Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | 98.5–102.3 | +1.0% | +5.0% | +0.8% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +0.4 | Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | 94.5–104.9 | +1.0% | +6.0% | +1.8% |
| Metals | GLD | -0.5 | Somewhat expensive | 97.2 | 88.8–105.5 | -2.8% | +4.0% | -0.2% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | -1.1 | Somewhat expensive | 90.0 | 74.1–104.3 | -10.0% | +8.0% | +3.8% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.8 | Expensive | 92.4 | 83.3–98.2 | -7.6% | +3.0% | -1.2% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | EMXC | -1.8 | Expensive | 89.8 | 82.6–98.6 | -10.2% | +4.0% | -0.2% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.9 | Expensive | 93.3 | 87.9–98.2 | -6.7% | +4.5% | +0.3% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -2.6 | Exceptionally expensive | 86.7 | 80.8–93.0 | -13.3% | +4.0% | -0.2% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +2.2 (Cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 97.5, P25 104.5, median 111.3, P75 118.1, P90 123.7. The market price sits at the 13.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +10.0%, P10 -15.2% to P90 +35.2%. Empirical scenario ensemble combining growth/carry assumptions with partial valuation convergence; diagnostic probabilities are scenario-implied, not calibrated historical probabilities.

**Probability note:** the 61% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 56%.

### Japan Equities — +1.4 (Cheap)

Benchmark: DXJ (Japan Hedged Equity)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 91.7, P25 99.4, median 105.3, P75 111.0, P90 114.0. The market price sits at the 26.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -12.6% to P90 +27.6%. Empirical scenario ensemble combining growth/carry assumptions with partial valuation convergence; diagnostic probabilities are scenario-implied, not calibrated historical probabilities.

**Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 57%.

### Energy — +0.6 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.4, P25 94.3, median 105.1, P75 117.4, P90 127.2. The market price sits at the 39.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -25.5% to P90 +37.5%. Empirical scenario ensemble combining growth/carry assumptions with partial valuation convergence; diagnostic probabilities are scenario-implied, not calibrated historical probabilities.

**Probability note:** the 53% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 45%.

### Fixed Income — +0.5 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 96.5, P25 98.5, median 101.0, P75 102.3, P90 103.9. The market price sits at the 41.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -2.6% to P90 +12.6%. Empirical scenario ensemble combining growth/carry assumptions with partial valuation convergence; diagnostic probabilities are scenario-implied, not calibrated historical probabilities.

**Probability note:** the 55% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 65%.

### Europe Equities — +0.4 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.0, P25 94.5, median 101.0, P75 104.9, P90 109.1. The market price sits at the 43.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -12.9% to P90 +24.9%. Empirical scenario ensemble combining growth/carry assumptions with partial valuation convergence; diagnostic probabilities are scenario-implied, not calibrated historical probabilities.

**Probability note:** the 55% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### Metals — -0.5 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.0, P25 88.8, median 97.2, P75 105.5, P90 111.1. The market price sits at the 58.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.0%, P10 -23.7% to P90 +31.7%. Empirical scenario ensemble combining growth/carry assumptions with partial valuation convergence; diagnostic probabilities are scenario-implied, not calibrated historical probabilities.

**Probability note:** the 50% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 66%.

### Crypto — -1.1 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 63.7, P25 74.1, median 90.0, P75 104.3, P90 119.1. The market price sits at the 68.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -42.4% to P90 +58.4%. Empirical scenario ensemble combining growth/carry assumptions with partial valuation convergence; diagnostic probabilities are scenario-implied, not calibrated historical probabilities.

### US Equities — -1.8 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 75.4, P25 83.3, median 92.4, P75 98.2, P90 102.9. The market price sits at the 79.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.0%, P10 -14.6% to P90 +20.6%. Empirical scenario ensemble combining growth/carry assumptions with partial valuation convergence; diagnostic probabilities are scenario-implied, not calibrated historical probabilities.

### Emerging Markets Equities — -1.8 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EMXC (Emerging Markets Ex-China)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 77.7, P25 82.6, median 89.8, P75 98.6, P90 105.7. The market price sits at the 80.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.0%, P10 -21.2% to P90 +29.2%. Empirical scenario ensemble combining growth/carry assumptions with partial valuation convergence; diagnostic probabilities are scenario-implied, not calibrated historical probabilities.

**Probability note:** the 50% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 64%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.9 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.3, P25 87.9, median 93.3, P75 98.2, P90 102.8. The market price sits at the 81.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.5%, P10 -14.4% to P90 +23.4%. Empirical scenario ensemble combining growth/carry assumptions with partial valuation convergence; diagnostic probabilities are scenario-implied, not calibrated historical probabilities.

**Probability note:** the 51% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 63%.

### Real Estate — -2.6 (Exceptionally expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 75.4, P25 80.8, median 86.7, P75 93.0, P90 98.6. The market price sits at the 94.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.0%, P10 -18.7% to P90 +26.7%. Empirical scenario ensemble combining growth/carry assumptions with partial valuation convergence; diagnostic probabilities are scenario-implied, not calibrated historical probabilities.

**Probability note:** the 50% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 68%.

## Sources

1. Snapshot of the S&P 500 Index Earnings Beat Rate — First Trust Advisors — https://www.ftportfolios.com/blogs/MarketBlog/2026/9/1/snapshot-of-the-sp-500-index-earnings-beat-rate
2. iShares MSCI China ETF | MCHI — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239619/ishares-msci-china-
3. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF | EWH — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/overview-v3-ishares-fund-data?portfolioId=239657&seoSlug=ishares-msci-hong-kong-etf
4. DXJ - WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund — WisdomTree — https://www.wisdomtree.com/us/products/equity/dxj
5. iShares MSCI Australia ETF | EWA — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/products/239607/ishares-msci-australia-etf
6. iShares MSCI Singapore ETF | EWS — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239678/ishares-msci-singapore-etf
7. iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF | EMXC — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/288504/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-ex-china-etf-fund_4
8. VGK - Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vgk/vanguard-ftse-europe-etf
9. VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate ETF — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vnq/vanguard-real-estate-etf?compositionTabBox=1
10. BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/bnd/vanguard-total-bond-market-etf
11. Central Bank Gold Statistics: Central banks make positive headlines on gold — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/09/central-bank-gold-statistics-central-banks-make-positive-headlines-gold
12. Oil Market Report - August 2026 — International Energy Agency — https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-august-2026
13. XOP: State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF — State Street Global Advisors — https://www.ssga.com/us/en/institutional/etfs/state-street-spdr-sp-oil-gas-exploration-production-etf-xop
14. BTC MVRV by Age Chart — Glassnode — https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/breakdowns.MvrvByAge?a=BTC
15. BTC Realized Price by Age Chart — Glassnode — https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/breakdowns.PriceRealizedUsdByAge?a=BTC

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.