---
title: "Valuation Lens — September 2, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-09-02"
data_cutoff: "2026-09-02T17:55:49-04:00"
status: "intraday"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "2026-09-02_valuation-lens_175549-et"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-09-02/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — September 2, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Sep 2, 2026, 5:55 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.18% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**China Leads Value While U.S. Equities Remain Expensive**

The preferred 1Y Treasury hurdle is 4.18%, while the 10Y nominal yield is 4.79% and the 10Y real yield is 2.44%.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | FXI | +1.6 | Cheap | 118.0 | 110.0–126.0 | +18.0% | +11.3% | +7.1% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +1.2 | Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | 94.0–116.0 | +8.0% | +11.5% | +7.3% |
| Energy | USO | +1.1 | Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | 96.0–116.0 | +8.0% | +9.2% | +5.0% |
| Crypto | ETH-USD | +0.9 | Somewhat cheap | 110.0 | 90.0–155.0 | +10.0% | +11.5% | +7.3% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.6 | Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | 100.0–104.0 | +2.0% | +5.7% | +1.5% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +0.5 | Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | 96.0–108.0 | +4.0% | +10.0% | +5.8% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +0.4 | Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | 94.0–110.0 | +4.0% | +8.9% | +4.7% |
| Metals | GLD | +0.4 | Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | 92.0–112.0 | +4.0% | +4.4% | +0.2% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.7 | Somewhat expensive | 99.0 | 96.0–103.0 | -1.0% | +7.0% | +2.8% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -0.9 | Somewhat expensive | 98.0 | 90.0–102.0 | -2.0% | +6.3% | +2.1% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.9 | Expensive | 92.0 | 82.0–96.0 | -8.0% | +5.5% | +1.3% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +1.6 (Cheap)

Benchmark: FXI (China Large-Cap)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 90.0, P25 110.0, median 118.0, P75 126.0, P90 150.0. The market price sits at the 23.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +11.3%, P10 +2.9% to P90 +20.9%. Scenario model combining sustainable growth/carry with partial convergence toward today's fair-value distribution; not a calibrated probability model.

**Probability note:** the 87% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 56%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +1.2 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.0, P25 94.0, median 108.0, P75 116.0, P90 128.0. The market price sits at the 30.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +11.5%, P10 +3.1% to P90 +18.5%. Scenario model combining sustainable growth/carry with partial convergence toward today's fair-value distribution; not a calibrated probability model.

**Probability note:** the 84% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 64%.

### Energy — +1.1 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.0, P25 96.0, median 108.0, P75 116.0, P90 126.0. The market price sits at the 32.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.2%, P10 +2.2% to P90 +15.5%. Scenario model combining sustainable growth/carry with partial convergence toward today's fair-value distribution; not a calibrated probability model.

**Probability note:** the 84% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 45%.

### Crypto — +0.9 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: ETH-USD (Ethereum)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 60.0, P25 90.0, median 110.0, P75 155.0, P90 185.0. The market price sits at the 35.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +11.5%, P10 -13.5% to P90 +49.0%. Scenario model combining sustainable growth/carry with partial convergence toward today's fair-value distribution; not a calibrated probability model.

### Fixed Income — +0.6 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 96.0, P25 100.0, median 102.0, P75 104.0, P90 107.0. The market price sits at the 40.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.7%, P10 +3.6% to P90 +7.4%. Scenario model combining sustainable growth/carry with partial convergence toward today's fair-value distribution; not a calibrated probability model.

**Probability note:** the 87% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 65%.

### Japan Equities — +0.5 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 90.0, P25 96.0, median 104.0, P75 108.0, P90 114.0. The market price sits at the 42.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +10.0%, P10 +5.8% to P90 +13.0%. Scenario model combining sustainable growth/carry with partial convergence toward today's fair-value distribution; not a calibrated probability model.

**Probability note:** the 95% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 57%.

### Europe Equities — +0.4 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.0, P25 94.0, median 104.0, P75 110.0, P90 118.0. The market price sits at the 43.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.9%, P10 +4.1% to P90 +13.1%. Scenario model combining sustainable growth/carry with partial convergence toward today's fair-value distribution; not a calibrated probability model.

**Probability note:** the 87% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### Metals — +0.4 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.0, P25 92.0, median 104.0, P75 112.0, P90 122.0. The market price sits at the 43.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.4%, P10 -2.6% to P90 +10.7%. Scenario model combining sustainable growth/carry with partial convergence toward today's fair-value distribution; not a calibrated probability model.

**Probability note:** the 57% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 66%.

### Real Estate — -0.7 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.0, P25 96.0, median 99.0, P75 103.0, P90 109.0. The market price sits at the 61.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 +1.9% to P90 +10.0%. Scenario model combining sustainable growth/carry with partial convergence toward today's fair-value distribution; not a calibrated probability model.

**Probability note:** the 89% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 68%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -0.9 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.0, P25 90.0, median 98.0, P75 102.0, P90 108.0. The market price sits at the 65.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.3%, P10 +2.1% to P90 +9.3%. Scenario model combining sustainable growth/carry with partial convergence toward today's fair-value distribution; not a calibrated probability model.

**Probability note:** the 75% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 63%.

### US Equities — -1.9 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 76.0, P25 82.0, median 92.0, P75 96.0, P90 102.0. The market price sits at the 81.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -1.7% to P90 +10.0%. Scenario model combining sustainable growth/carry with partial convergence toward today's fair-value distribution; not a calibrated probability model.

## Sources

1. FactSet Earnings Insight — FactSet — https://www.factset.com/earningsinsight
2. iShares China Large-Cap ETF | FXI — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239536/ishares-china-largecap-etf
3. iShares MSCI Japan ETF | EWJ — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239665/ishares-msci-japan-etf
4. iShares MSCI Japan Value ETF | EWJV — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/307263/ishares-msci-japan-value-etf
5. iShares MSCI Japan Small-Cap ETF | SCJ — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239666/ishares-msci-japan-smallcap-etf
6. iShares MSCI Australia ETF | EWA — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/products/239607/ishares-msci-australia-etf
7. iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | EEM — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239637/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-etf
8. iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF | EMXC — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/288504/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-ex-china-etf
9. iShares MSCI India ETF | INDA — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239659/ishares-msci-india-etf
10. iShares MSCI Brazil ETF | EWZ — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239612/ishares-msci-brazil-capped-etf
11. iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF | EWT — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239686/ishares-msci-taiwan-etf
12. iShares Europe ETF | IEV — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239736/ishares-europe-etf
13. iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF | EZU — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239644/ishares-msci-emu-etf
14. iShares MSCI Germany ETF | EWG — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239650/ishares-msci-germany-etf
15. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | BND — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/bnd/vanguard-total-bond-market-etf
16. Vanguard Real Estate ETF | VNQ — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vnq/vanguard-real-estate-etf
17. iShares Core U.S. REIT ETF | USRT — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239544/ishares-real-estate-50-etf
18. State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF | XLE — State Street Global Advisors — https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/state-street-energy-select-sector-spdr-etf-xle
19. Oil Market Report - August 2026 — International Energy Agency — https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-august-2026
20. Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026
21. Gold ETF Flows: July 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows/2026/08
22. Q3 2026 Signals Report — Fidelity Digital Assets — https://fidelitydigitalassets.com/research-and-insights/q3-2026-signals-report
23. Q4 crypto market outlook — Fidelity — https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/crypto-outlook
24. BTC MVRV by Wallet Size Chart — Glassnode — https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/breakdowns.MvrvByWalletSize?a=BTC

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.