--- title: "Valuation Lens — September 1, 2026" type: "valuation_lens" date: "2026-09-01" data_cutoff: "2026-09-01T19:50:28-04:00" status: "final" schema_version: "3.4.0" methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4" run_id: "2026-09-01_valuation-lens_195028-et" canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-09-01/" publisher: "CXProWealth" --- # Valuation Lens — September 1, 2026 > Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts. **Data cutoff:** Sep 1, 2026, 7:50 PM EDT **One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.16% (TREASURY_1Y) **Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4 ## Overall **Global valuation favors cheaper non-U.S. equities over rich U.S. pricing** The one-year Treasury investment-basis yield is 4.16%, creating a meaningful current hurdle for risk assets. ## Asset classes, cheap to expensive | Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | | Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +2.2 | Cheap | 116.0 | 101.0–125.0 | +16.0% | +11.0% | +6.8% | | China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +2.2 | Cheap | 114.0 | 103.0–121.0 | +14.0% | +11.5% | +7.3% | | Europe Equities | VGK | +1.5 | Cheap | 109.0 | 99.0–115.0 | +9.0% | +8.0% | +3.8% | | Japan Equities | EWJ | +1.5 | Cheap | 107.0 | 99.0–112.0 | +7.0% | +7.5% | +3.3% | | Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | +1.5 | Cheap | 104.0 | 98.0–109.0 | +4.0% | +7.0% | +2.8% | | Fixed Income | BND | +0.6 | Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | 98.0–104.0 | +2.0% | +4.8% | +0.6% | | Energy | USO | +0.6 | Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | 92.0–108.0 | +2.0% | +6.0% | +1.8% | | Metals | GLD | +0.6 | Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | 92.0–110.0 | +3.0% | +5.0% | +0.8% | | Real Estate | VNQ | +0.6 | Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | 95.0–109.0 | +4.0% | +7.0% | +2.8% | | US Equities | SPY | -0.6 | Somewhat expensive | 98.0 | 90.0–102.0 | -2.0% | +6.5% | +2.3% | | Crypto | BTC-USD | -0.6 | Somewhat expensive | 100.0 | 77.0–114.0 | 0.0% | +8.0% | +3.8% | ### Emerging Markets Equities — +2.2 (Cheap) Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index) **Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.0, P25 101.0, median 116.0, P75 125.0, P90 152.0. The market price sits at the 13.0th percentile of that distribution. **Probability note:** the 66% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 64%. ### China & Hong Kong Equities — +2.2 (Cheap) Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market) **Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 90.0, P25 103.0, median 114.0, P75 121.0, P90 143.0. The market price sits at the 13.0th percentile of that distribution. **Probability note:** the 64% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 56%. ### Europe Equities — +1.5 (Cheap) Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market) **Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 92.0, P25 99.0, median 109.0, P75 115.0, P90 131.0. The market price sits at the 25.0th percentile of that distribution. **Probability note:** the 63% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%. ### Japan Equities — +1.5 (Cheap) Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market) **Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 93.0, P25 99.0, median 107.0, P75 112.0, P90 127.0. The market price sits at the 25.0th percentile of that distribution. **Probability note:** the 61% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 57%. ### Developed Pacific Equities — +1.5 (Cheap) Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market) **Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 92.0, P25 98.0, median 104.0, P75 109.0, P90 122.0. The market price sits at the 25.0th percentile of that distribution. **Probability note:** the 60% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 63%. ### Fixed Income — +0.6 (Somewhat cheap) Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market) **Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 95.0, P25 98.0, median 102.0, P75 104.0, P90 109.0. The market price sits at the 40.0th percentile of that distribution. **Probability note:** the 55% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 65%. ### Energy — +0.6 (Somewhat cheap) Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil) **Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.0, P25 92.0, median 102.0, P75 108.0, P90 130.0. The market price sits at the 40.0th percentile of that distribution. **Probability note:** the 55% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 45%. ### Metals — +0.6 (Somewhat cheap) Benchmark: GLD (Gold) **Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.0, P25 92.0, median 103.0, P75 110.0, P90 134.0. The market price sits at the 40.0th percentile of that distribution. **Probability note:** the 51% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 66%. ### Real Estate — +0.6 (Somewhat cheap) Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate) **Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.0, P25 95.0, median 104.0, P75 109.0, P90 126.0. The market price sits at the 40.0th percentile of that distribution. **Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 68%. ### US Equities — -0.6 (Somewhat expensive) Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index) **Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.0, P25 90.0, median 98.0, P75 102.0, P90 114.0. The market price sits at the 60.0th percentile of that distribution. ### Crypto — -0.6 (Somewhat expensive) Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin) **Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 60.0, P25 77.0, median 100.0, P75 114.0, P90 160.0. The market price sits at the 60.0th percentile of that distribution. ## Sources 1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-august-7-2026 2. MSCI China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/302400/msci-china-index 3. MSCI Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/939200/msci-japan-index 4. MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/991400/msci-pacific-ex-japan-index 5. MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/713021/msci-em-emerging-markets-ex-china-index 6. MSCI Europe Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990500/msci-europe-index 7. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/bnd/vanguard-total-bond-market-etf 8. REITs Extend Strong Operating Performance — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/news/blog/media/reits-extend-strong-operating-performance 9. State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF — State Street Global Advisors — https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/state-street-energy-select-sector-spdr-etf-xle 10. Short-Term Energy Outlook — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/STEO/ 11. Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026 12. MVRV by Wallet Size — Glassnode — https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/breakdowns.MvrvByWalletSize?a=BTC --- This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.