---
title: "Valuation Lens — August 31, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-08-31"
data_cutoff: "2026-08-31T21:15:51-04:00"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "2026-08-31_valuation-lens_211551-et"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-08-31/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — August 31, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Aug 31, 2026, 9:15 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.04% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**China and real estate screen cheaper; U.S. equities remain expensive**

The 1Y Treasury yields 4.04% on an investment basis, while the 10Y nominal and real yields are 4.99% and 2.42%, respectively.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +1.4 | Cheap | 112.0 | 98.0–126.0 | +12.0% | +9.0% | +5.0% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | +1.2 | Somewhat cheap | 109.0 | 98.0–121.0 | +9.0% | +7.5% | +3.5% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +1.0 | Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | 96.0–122.0 | +8.0% | +8.5% | +4.5% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.7 | Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | 98.0–107.5 | +3.0% | +5.5% | +1.5% |
| Metals | GLD | +0.6 | Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | 93.0–119.0 | +5.0% | +6.5% | +2.5% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +0.4 | Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | 96.0–110.0 | +2.0% | +7.0% | +3.0% |
| Energy | USO | +0.3 | Fair | 102.0 | 90.0–115.0 | +2.0% | +5.5% | +1.5% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.3 | Fair | 110.0 | 76.0–151.0 | +10.0% | +10.0% | +6.0% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -0.7 | Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | 91.0–105.0 | -3.0% | +5.5% | +1.5% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -0.8 | Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | 90.0–103.0 | -4.0% | +5.0% | +1.0% |
| US Equities | SPY | -2.5 | Exceptionally expensive | 87.0 | 80.0–94.0 | -13.0% | +4.0% | -0.0% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +1.4 (Cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.0, P25 98.0, median 112.0, P75 126.0, P90 142.0. The market price sits at the 26.7th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 59% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 56%.

### Real Estate — +1.2 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 90.0, P25 98.0, median 109.0, P75 121.0, P90 133.0. The market price sits at the 30.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 57% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 68%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +1.0 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.0, P25 96.0, median 108.0, P75 122.0, P90 136.0. The market price sits at the 33.3th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 64%.

### Fixed Income — +0.7 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 94.0, P25 98.0, median 103.0, P75 107.5, P90 112.0. The market price sits at the 38.3th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 61% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 65%.

### Metals — +0.6 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.0, P25 93.0, median 105.0, P75 119.0, P90 135.0. The market price sits at the 40.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 53% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 66%.

### Europe Equities — +0.4 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 90.0, P25 96.0, median 102.0, P75 110.0, P90 119.0. The market price sits at the 43.3th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### Energy — +0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 80.0, P25 90.0, median 102.0, P75 115.0, P90 130.0. The market price sits at the 45.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 51% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 45%.

### Crypto — +0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 55.0, P25 76.0, median 110.0, P75 151.0, P90 210.0. The market price sits at the 45.0th percentile of that distribution.

### Japan Equities — -0.7 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.0, P25 91.0, median 97.0, P75 105.0, P90 114.0. The market price sits at the 61.7th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 55% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 57%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -0.8 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.0, P25 90.0, median 96.0, P75 103.0, P90 112.0. The market price sits at the 63.3th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 53% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 63%.

### US Equities — -2.5 (Exceptionally expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 73.0, P25 80.0, median 87.0, P75 94.0, P90 99.0. The market price sits at the 91.7th percentile of that distribution.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-august-7-2026
2. MSCI China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/302400/msci-china-index
3. MSCI Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/939200/msci-japan-index
4. MSCI Europe Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990500/msci-europe-index
5. MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) ex China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/713021/msci-em-emerging-markets-ex-china-index
6. MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/991400/msci-pacific-ex-japan-index
7. Nareit REIT Industry Tracker — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/nareit-reit-industry-tracker
8. Gold Market Commentary: Making waves — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-market-commentary-july-2026
9. Oil Market Report - August 2026 — International Energy Agency — https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-august-2026
10. BTC MVRV by Age Chart — Glassnode — https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/breakdowns.MvrvByAge?a=BTC

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.