---
title: "Valuation Lens — August 28, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-08-28"
data_cutoff: "2026-08-28T21:22:33-04:00"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "2026-08-28_valuation-lens_212233-et"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-08-28/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — August 28, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Aug 28, 2026, 9:22 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.04% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**China and emerging markets lead value while U.S. equities remain expensive**

The 4.04% one-year Treasury is the preferred annual hurdle, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.67% and the 10-year real yield at 2.34%.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +1.4 | Cheap | 112.0 | 98.8–127.8 | +12.0% | +9.0% | +5.0% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | EMXC | +1.0 | Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | 96.1–121.8 | +8.0% | +8.5% | +4.5% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.9 | Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | 98.6–105.2 | +2.0% | +4.9% | +0.9% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +0.6 | Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | 94.8–113.9 | +4.0% | +7.5% | +3.5% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.3 | Fair | 105.0 | 77.3–144.6 | +5.0% | +10.0% | +6.0% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +0.2 | Fair | 101.0 | 91.8–110.9 | +1.0% | +6.5% | +2.5% |
| Metals | GLD | -0.2 | Fair | 98.0 | 84.8–113.8 | -2.0% | +4.5% | +0.5% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.3 | Fair | 98.0 | 88.8–108.6 | -2.0% | +5.5% | +1.5% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -0.4 | Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | 87.1–107.6 | -3.0% | +5.5% | +1.5% |
| Energy | USO | -0.6 | Somewhat expensive | 92.0 | 77.5–109.8 | -8.0% | +3.5% | -0.5% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.5 | Expensive | 92.0 | 83.1–99.9 | -8.0% | +5.0% | +1.0% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +1.4 (Cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.2, P25 98.8, median 112.0, P75 127.8, P90 141.7. The market price sits at the 27.5th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 61% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 56%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +1.0 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: EMXC (Emerging Markets Ex-China)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.7, P25 96.1, median 108.0, P75 121.8, P90 134.0. The market price sits at the 33.3th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 59% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 64%.

### Fixed Income — +0.9 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 95.6, P25 98.6, median 102.0, P75 105.2, P90 107.9. The market price sits at the 35.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.9%, P10 +1.2% to P90 +8.9%. Starting portfolio yield plus duration/spread scenarios; return distribution separates carry from price effects.

**Probability note:** the 61% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 65%.

### Europe Equities — +0.6 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 86.7, P25 94.8, median 104.0, P75 113.9, P90 122.6. The market price sits at the 39.2th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 59% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### Crypto — +0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 53.0, P25 77.3, median 105.0, P75 144.6, P90 179.3. The market price sits at the 45.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +10.0%, P10 -42.0% to P90 +78.1%. Network adoption, realized-value/MVRV mean-reversion and liquidity scenarios with very wide uncertainty.

### Japan Equities — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.7, P25 91.8, median 101.0, P75 110.9, P90 119.6. The market price sits at the 47.1th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 57% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 57%.

### Metals — -0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 73.2, P25 84.8, median 98.0, P75 113.8, P90 127.7. The market price sits at the 52.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.5%, P10 -20.3% to P90 +33.0%. Gold/metal demand-supply, real-yield and partial valuation normalization scenarios; no momentum input.

**Probability note:** the 51% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 66%.

### Real Estate — -0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 80.7, P25 88.8, median 98.0, P75 108.6, P90 117.8. The market price sits at the 54.9th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 53% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 68%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -0.4 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.4, P25 87.1, median 97.0, P75 107.6, P90 116.8. The market price sits at the 56.9th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 55% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 63%.

### Energy — -0.6 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 64.8, P25 77.5, median 92.0, P75 109.8, P90 125.4. The market price sits at the 60.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.5%, P10 -23.7% to P90 +34.5%. Commodity-price normalization, roll/producer economics and supply-demand scenarios; wide range reflects spot/futures and geopolitical uncertainty.

**Probability note:** the 49% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### US Equities — -1.5 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 75.3, P25 83.1, median 92.0, P75 99.9, P90 106.9. The market price sits at the 74.5th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 53% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 80%.

## Sources

1. State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) — State Street Global Advisors — https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/state-street-spdr-sp-500-etf-trust-spy
2. MSCI China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/302400/msci-china-index
3. MSCI Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/939200/msci-japan-index
4. MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/991400/msci-pacific-ex-japan-index
5. MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/713021/msci-em-emerging-markets-ex-china-index
6. MSCI Europe Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990500/msci-europe-index
7. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/bnd/vanguard-total-bond-market-etf
8. Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vnq/vanguard-real-estate-etf
9. Short-Term Energy Outlook — August 2026 — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/
10. Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026
11. BTC MVRV by Wallet Size — Glassnode — https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/breakdowns.MvrvByWalletSize?a=BTC

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.