---
title: "Valuation Lens — August 27, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-08-27"
data_cutoff: "2026-08-27T17:30:00-04:00"
status: "intraday"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "2026-08-27_valuation-lens_173000-et"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-08-27/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — August 27, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Aug 27, 2026, 5:30 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.02% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Bonds and China screen cheaper while U.S. equities remain stretched**

The preferred 1Y Treasury hurdle is 4.02%, with the 10Y nominal yield at 4.66% and the 10Y real yield at 2.34% as of August 26.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.8 | Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | 98.0–105.0 | +2.0% | +4.9% | +0.9% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | FXI | +0.8 | Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | 93.1–123.9 | +8.0% | +7.0% | +3.0% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +0.3 | Fair | 103.0 | 90.1–116.9 | +3.0% | +3.5% | -0.5% |
| Metals | GLD | +0.3 | Fair | 103.0 | 88.1–119.9 | +3.0% | +5.8% | +1.8% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | -0.6 | Somewhat expensive | 88.0 | 69.1–115.9 | -12.0% | +6.0% | +2.0% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.7 | Somewhat expensive | 95.0 | 86.0–105.9 | -5.0% | +4.1% | +0.1% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -0.9 | Somewhat expensive | 94.0 | 87.0–104.0 | -6.0% | +5.0% | +1.0% |
| Energy | USO | -0.9 | Somewhat expensive | 92.0 | 82.0–105.9 | -8.0% | +4.8% | +0.8% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -1.2 | Somewhat expensive | 93.0 | 85.0–102.0 | -7.0% | +4.5% | +0.5% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.7 | Expensive | 87.0 | 78.0–97.0 | -13.0% | +4.2% | +0.2% |
| US Equities | SPY | -2.4 | Exceptionally expensive | 80.0 | 69.1–90.9 | -20.0% | +3.4% | -0.6% |

### Fixed Income — +0.8 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 94.1, P25 98.0, median 102.0, P75 105.0, P90 108.0. The market price sits at the 37.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.9%, P10 -4.0% to P90 +12.0%. Valuation-aware 1Y scenario model combining cash yield/carry, sustainable fundamental growth, a conservative fraction of valuation convergence and institutional long-run priors; recent returns excluded.

**Probability note:** the 57% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 65%.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +0.8 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: FXI (China Large-Cap)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 80.2, P25 93.1, median 108.0, P75 123.9, P90 139.8. The market price sits at the 36.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -26.0% to P90 +38.0%. Valuation-aware 1Y scenario model combining cash yield/carry, sustainable fundamental growth, a conservative fraction of valuation convergence and institutional long-run priors; recent returns excluded.

**Probability note:** the 54% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 56%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 76.2, P25 90.1, median 103.0, P75 116.9, P90 131.8. The market price sits at the 44.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.5%, P10 -28.0% to P90 +33.0%. Valuation-aware 1Y scenario model combining cash yield/carry, sustainable fundamental growth, a conservative fraction of valuation convergence and institutional long-run priors; recent returns excluded.

**Probability note:** the 49% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 64%.

### Metals — +0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 75.2, P25 88.1, median 103.0, P75 119.9, P90 139.7. The market price sits at the 44.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.8%, P10 -27.0% to P90 +42.0%. Valuation-aware 1Y scenario model combining cash yield/carry, sustainable fundamental growth, a conservative fraction of valuation convergence and institutional long-run priors; recent returns excluded.

**Probability note:** the 53% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 66%.

### Crypto — -0.6 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 54.2, P25 69.1, median 88.0, P75 115.9, P90 147.6. The market price sits at the 60.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -48.0% to P90 +76.0%. Valuation-aware 1Y scenario model combining cash yield/carry, sustainable fundamental growth, a conservative fraction of valuation convergence and institutional long-run priors; recent returns excluded.

### Real Estate — -0.7 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 77.1, P25 86.0, median 95.0, P75 105.9, P90 117.8. The market price sits at the 61.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.1%, P10 -19.0% to P90 +25.0%. Valuation-aware 1Y scenario model combining cash yield/carry, sustainable fundamental growth, a conservative fraction of valuation convergence and institutional long-run priors; recent returns excluded.

**Probability note:** the 50% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 68%.

### Europe Equities — -0.9 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 79.1, P25 87.0, median 94.0, P75 104.0, P90 114.9. The market price sits at the 65.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -18.0% to P90 +27.0%. Valuation-aware 1Y scenario model combining cash yield/carry, sustainable fundamental growth, a conservative fraction of valuation convergence and institutional long-run priors; recent returns excluded.

**Probability note:** the 52% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### Energy — -0.9 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 70.2, P25 82.0, median 92.0, P75 105.9, P90 122.8. The market price sits at the 64.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.8%, P10 -30.0% to P90 +40.0%. Valuation-aware 1Y scenario model combining cash yield/carry, sustainable fundamental growth, a conservative fraction of valuation convergence and institutional long-run priors; recent returns excluded.

**Probability note:** the 51% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Japan Equities — -1.2 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 76.1, P25 85.0, median 93.0, P75 102.0, P90 111.9. The market price sits at the 69.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.5%, P10 -21.0% to P90 +28.0%. Valuation-aware 1Y scenario model combining cash yield/carry, sustainable fundamental growth, a conservative fraction of valuation convergence and institutional long-run priors; recent returns excluded.

**Probability note:** the 51% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 57%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.7 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 70.1, P25 78.0, median 87.0, P75 97.0, P90 107.9. The market price sits at the 79.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.2%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +26.0%. Valuation-aware 1Y scenario model combining cash yield/carry, sustainable fundamental growth, a conservative fraction of valuation convergence and institutional long-run priors; recent returns excluded.

**Probability note:** the 50% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 63%.

### US Equities — -2.4 (Exceptionally expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 60.1, P25 69.1, median 80.0, P75 90.9, P90 99.9. The market price sits at the 90.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.4%, P10 -16.0% to P90 +20.0%. Valuation-aware 1Y scenario model combining cash yield/carry, sustainable fundamental growth, a conservative fraction of valuation convergence and institutional long-run priors; recent returns excluded.

## Sources

1. State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) — State Street Global Advisors — https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/state-street-spdr-sp-500-etf-trust-spy
2. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-august-7-2026
3. Guide to the Markets - Europe — J.P. Morgan Asset Management — https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/mi-guide-to-the-markets-daily-ce.pdf
4. Vanguard Capital Markets Model forecasts — Vanguard — https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-return-forecasts.html
5. Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vwo/vanguard-ftse-emerging-markets-etf
6. Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vgk/vanguard-ftse-europe-etf
7. iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239536/ishares-china-largecap-etf
8. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239665/ishares-msci-japan-etfEWJ
9. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239607/ishares-msci-australia-etf
10. iShares MSCI Singapore ETF (EWS) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239678/ishares-msci-singapore-etf
11. iShares MSCI New Zealand ETF (ENZL) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239672/ishares-msci-new-zealand-capped-etf?qt=ENZL
12. Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vnq/vanguard-real-estate-etf
13. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/bnd/vanguard-total-bond-market-etf
14. Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026
15. Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2026 — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/
16. Today in Energy Daily Prices - August 27, 2026 — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php?trk=public_post_comment-text
17. BTC MVRV by PnL — Glassnode — https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/breakdowns.MvrvByPnl?a=BTC
18. 2026 Asia Mid-Year Outlook — J.P. Morgan Private Bank — https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/eur/en/insights/markets-and-investing/asf/2026-asia-mid-year-outlook
19. Where to find value in the U.S. markets — Vanguard — https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/how-stock-bond-valuations-changed.html

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.