---
title: "Valuation Lens — August 26, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-08-26"
data_cutoff: "2026-08-26T21:03:28-04:00"
status: "intraday"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "2026-08-26_valuation-lens_210328-et"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-08-26/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — August 26, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Aug 26, 2026, 9:03 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.01% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**China and Europe look cheap; U.S. equities remain expensive**

The preferred one-year hurdle is the 4.01% DGS1 investment-basis Treasury yield, with the 10-year nominal yield at 4.64% and 10-year real yield at 2.32%.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +2.0 | Cheap | 120.0 | 110.0–132.0 | +20.0% | +7.5% | +3.5% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +1.9 | Cheap | 111.0 | 104.0–120.0 | +11.0% | +6.5% | +2.5% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +1.9 | Cheap | 108.0 | 102.0–116.0 | +8.0% | +7.0% | +3.0% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +1.9 | Cheap | 116.0 | 106.0–128.0 | +16.0% | +6.0% | +2.0% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.7 | Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | 100.0–104.0 | +2.0% | +5.0% | +1.0% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | +0.7 | Somewhat cheap | 106.0 | 99.0–114.0 | +6.0% | +6.5% | +2.5% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | +0.5 | Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | 98.0–110.0 | +3.0% | +5.5% | +1.5% |
| Metals | GLD | 0.0 | Fair | 100.0 | 96.0–115.0 | 0.0% | +4.0% | -0.0% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | -0.8 | Somewhat expensive | 90.0 | 75.0–110.0 | -10.0% | +5.0% | +1.0% |
| Energy | USO | -1.2 | Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | 90.0–104.0 | -4.0% | +1.0% | -3.0% |
| US Equities | SPY | -2.0 | Expensive | 90.0 | 84.0–96.0 | -10.0% | +4.5% | +0.5% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +2.0 (Cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 100.0, P25 110.0, median 120.0, P75 132.0, P90 145.0. The market price sits at the 16.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 56% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 56%.

### Europe Equities — +1.9 (Cheap)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 97.0, P25 104.0, median 111.0, P75 120.0, P90 132.0. The market price sits at the 18.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 56% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### Japan Equities — +1.9 (Cheap)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 96.0, P25 102.0, median 108.0, P75 116.0, P90 125.0. The market price sits at the 19.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 56% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 57%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +1.9 (Cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 96.0, P25 106.0, median 116.0, P75 128.0, P90 142.0. The market price sits at the 18.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 54% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 64%.

### Fixed Income — +0.7 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 97.0, P25 100.0, median 102.0, P75 104.0, P90 107.0. The market price sits at the 38.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 64% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 65%.

### Real Estate — +0.7 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 92.0, P25 99.0, median 106.0, P75 114.0, P90 124.0. The market price sits at the 38.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 56% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 68%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — +0.5 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 92.0, P25 98.0, median 103.0, P75 110.0, P90 118.0. The market price sits at the 42.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 54% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 63%.

### Metals — 0.0 (Fair)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 90.0, P25 96.0, median 100.0, P75 115.0, P90 130.0. The market price sits at the 50.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 50% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 66%.

### Crypto — -0.8 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 60.0, P25 75.0, median 90.0, P75 110.0, P90 140.0. The market price sits at the 63.0th percentile of that distribution.

### Energy — -1.2 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.0, P25 90.0, median 96.0, P75 104.0, P90 116.0. The market price sits at the 70.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 45% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### US Equities — -2.0 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 76.0, P25 84.0, median 90.0, P75 96.0, P90 103.0. The market price sits at the 83.0th percentile of that distribution.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-august-7-2026
2. MSCI China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/302400/msci-china-index
3. MSCI Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/939200/msci-japan-index
4. MSCI Australia Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/903600/msci-australia-index
5. MSCI Emerging Markets Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/891800/msci-em-emerging-markets-index-2
6. MSCI Europe Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990500/msci-europe-index
7. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/bnd/vanguard-total-bond-market-etf
8. MSCI World Real Estate Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/132085/msci-world-real-estate-index
9. Nareit REIT Industry Tracker — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/nareit-reit-industry-tracker
10. REIT Industry Financial Snapshot — July 2026 — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/reit-industry-financial-snapshot
11. Short-Term Energy Outlook — August 2026 — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/
12. Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2026: Point break — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-mid-year-outlook-2026
13. BTC MVRV by Age Chart — Glassnode — https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/breakdowns.MvrvByAge?a=BTC&c=native&resolution=24h
14. Vanguard Capital Markets Model forecasts — July 2026 — Vanguard — https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-return-forecasts.html
15. MSCI World Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990100/msci-world-index

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.