---
title: "Valuation Lens — August 25, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-08-25"
data_cutoff: "2026-08-25T23:22:28-04:00"
status: "intraday"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "2026-08-25_valuation-lens_232228-et"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-08-25/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — August 25, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Aug 25, 2026, 11:22 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.04% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Cheap emerging markets contrast with expensive U.S. equities and metals**

The preferred one-year hurdle is the 4.04% investment-basis Treasury yield, with the 10-year nominal yield at 4.70% and 10-year real yield at 2.38%.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +1.9 | Cheap | 120.0 | 102.0–146.0 | +20.0% | +10.5% | +6.5% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +1.3 | Cheap | 109.0 | 99.0–120.0 | +9.0% | +7.5% | +3.5% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +1.3 | Cheap | 114.0 | 96.0–136.0 | +14.0% | +9.5% | +5.5% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.5 | Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | 98.5–103.5 | +1.0% | +4.9% | +0.9% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +0.5 | Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | 97.0–113.0 | +4.0% | +6.5% | +2.5% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | +0.5 | Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | 95.0–114.0 | +3.0% | +6.0% | +2.0% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.5 | Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | 82.0–132.0 | +3.0% | +9.0% | +5.0% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.5 | Somewhat expensive | 99.0 | 93.0–108.0 | -1.0% | +5.5% | +1.5% |
| Energy | USO | -1.3 | Expensive | 93.0 | 85.0–104.0 | -7.0% | +1.0% | -3.0% |
| Metals | GLD | -1.3 | Expensive | 95.0 | 87.0–107.0 | -5.0% | +2.5% | -1.5% |
| US Equities | SPY | -2.0 | Expensive | 93.0 | 87.0–100.0 | -7.0% | +4.5% | +0.5% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +1.9 (Cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.0, P25 102.0, median 120.0, P75 146.0, P90 164.0. The market price sits at the 18.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +10.5%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +32.0%. Modeled total-return scenarios combining earnings/dividend carry and partial valuation normalization with a wide range for macro, policy and profit uncertainty.

**Probability note:** the 71% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 56%.

### Europe Equities — +1.3 (Cheap)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.0, P25 99.0, median 109.0, P75 120.0, P90 127.0. The market price sits at the 29.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -11.0% to P90 +20.0%. Modeled total-return scenarios combining current earnings yield, dividends and partial multiple normalization with wide regional macro sensitivity.

**Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +1.3 (Cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 80.0, P25 96.0, median 114.0, P75 136.0, P90 150.0. The market price sits at the 29.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.5%, P10 -18.0% to P90 +30.0%. Modeled total-return scenarios combining earnings/dividend carry and partial valuation normalization with broad country, currency and commodity dispersion.

**Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 64%.

### Fixed Income — +0.5 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 96.0, P25 98.5, median 101.0, P75 103.5, P90 105.5. The market price sits at the 42.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.9%, P10 -3.0% to P90 +10.0%. Modeled bond total-return scenarios anchored primarily to starting yield, with duration, spread and reinvestment-rate variation.

**Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 65%.

### Japan Equities — +0.5 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.0, P25 97.0, median 104.0, P75 113.0, P90 119.0. The market price sits at the 42.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -12.0% to P90 +19.0%. Modeled total-return scenarios combining earnings yield, dividends and partial multiple normalization with currency and rate uncertainty embedded in dispersion.

**Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 57%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — +0.5 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 86.0, P25 95.0, median 103.0, P75 114.0, P90 121.0. The market price sits at the 42.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -10.0% to P90 +18.0%. Modeled total-return scenarios combining earnings yield, dividends and partial valuation normalization with regional bank/property sensitivity embedded in uncertainty.

**Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 63%.

### Crypto — +0.5 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 64.0, P25 82.0, median 103.0, P75 132.0, P90 152.0. The market price sits at the 42.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.0%, P10 -38.0% to P90 +65.0%. Wide modeled crypto return scenarios using on-chain valuation state and adoption/liquidity ranges; no claim of universally accepted intrinsic value.

### Real Estate — -0.5 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.0, P25 93.0, median 99.0, P75 108.0, P90 114.0. The market price sits at the 58.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -12.0% to P90 +18.0%. Modeled REIT total-return scenarios combining distribution yield, FFO/NAV normalization and financing-rate sensitivity.

**Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 68%.

### Energy — -1.3 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 74.0, P25 85.0, median 93.0, P75 104.0, P90 112.0. The market price sits at the 72.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +1.0%, P10 -24.0% to P90 +24.0%. Modeled energy return scenarios using official price-path assumptions and supply/demand ranges, with wide commodity and roll-yield uncertainty.

**Probability note:** the 42% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Metals — -1.3 (Expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 76.0, P25 87.0, median 95.0, P75 107.0, P90 116.0. The market price sits at the 72.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.5%, P10 -18.0% to P90 +22.0%. Modeled commodity/metal return scenarios using current valuation anchors, macro carry/real-yield conditions and broad supply-demand uncertainty.

**Probability note:** the 42% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 66%.

### US Equities — -2.0 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.0, P25 87.0, median 93.0, P75 100.0, P90 104.0. The market price sits at the 83.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.5%, P10 -13.0% to P90 +17.0%. Modeled total-return scenarios combining earnings growth, dividend/shareholder yield, and partial valuation normalization; long-run return history used only as a prior.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-august-7-2026
2. MSCI Europe Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990500/msci-europe-index
3. MSCI Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/939200/msci-japan-index
4. MSCI China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/302400/msci-china-index
5. MSCI Emerging Markets Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/891800/msci-em-emerging-markets-index-2
6. MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/991400/msci-pacific-ex-japan-index
7. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/bnd/vanguard-total-bond-market-etf
8. REIT Industry Financial Snapshot — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/reit-industry-financial-snapshot
9. Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026
10. Short-Term Energy Outlook — August 2026 — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/
11. BTC MVRV by Wallet Size — Glassnode — https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/breakdowns.MvrvByWalletSize?a=BTC
12. U.S. Stock Markets 1871-Present — Robert J. Shiller — https://shillerdata.com/
13. FRED economic and Treasury series — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/

---

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.