---
title: "Valuation Lens — August 24, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-08-24"
data_cutoff: "2026-08-24T23:59:59-04:00"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "2026-08-24_valuation-lens_235959-et"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-08-24/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — August 24, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Aug 24, 2026, 11:59 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.03% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Selective value in bonds and China contrasts with expensive U.S. equities and energy**

The preferred 1Y Treasury hurdle is 4.03%, while the 10Y Treasury yield is 4.74% and the 10Y real yield is 2.40%.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Fixed Income | BND | +1.2 | Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | 99.0–109.0 | +4.0% | +5.2% | +1.2% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +0.7 | Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | 90.2–121.9 | +8.0% | +7.5% | +3.5% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | +0.6 | Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | 95.1–111.9 | +3.0% | +6.5% | +2.5% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +0.4 | Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | 94.1–110.9 | +2.0% | +6.5% | +2.5% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.3 | Fair | 105.0 | 75.3–144.6 | +5.0% | +10.0% | +6.0% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -0.6 | Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | 90.1–104.9 | -3.0% | +5.0% | +1.0% |
| Metals | GLD | -0.7 | Somewhat expensive | 94.0 | 84.1–105.9 | -6.0% | +3.0% | -1.0% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -0.9 | Somewhat expensive | 95.0 | 89.1–102.9 | -5.0% | +4.0% | 0.0% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | -1.6 | Expensive | 90.0 | 82.1–98.9 | -10.0% | +2.5% | -1.5% |
| Energy | USO | -1.7 | Expensive | 84.0 | 75.1–95.9 | -16.0% | -4.0% | -8.0% |
| US Equities | SPY | -2.0 | Expensive | 88.0 | 82.1–95.9 | -12.0% | +2.5% | -1.5% |

### Fixed Income — +1.2 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 95.1, P25 99.0, median 104.0, P75 109.0, P90 113.9. The market price sits at the 29.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.2%, P10 -4.0% to P90 +12.0%. Scenario total-return model using economic-output/carry assumptions plus partial valuation convergence; short-horizon momentum is excluded.

**Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 65%.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +0.7 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.3, P25 90.2, median 108.0, P75 121.9, P90 137.6. The market price sits at the 38.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -30.0% to P90 +42.0%. Scenario total-return model using economic-output/carry assumptions plus partial valuation convergence; short-horizon momentum is excluded.

**Probability note:** the 54% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 56%.

### Real Estate — +0.6 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.2, P25 95.1, median 103.0, P75 111.9, P90 120.8. The market price sits at the 40.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +30.0%. Scenario total-return model using economic-output/carry assumptions plus partial valuation convergence; short-horizon momentum is excluded.

**Probability note:** the 55% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 68%.

### Europe Equities — +0.4 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.2, P25 94.1, median 102.0, P75 110.9, P90 119.8. The market price sits at the 43.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -16.0% to P90 +24.0%. Scenario total-return model using economic-output/carry assumptions plus partial valuation convergence; short-horizon momentum is excluded.

**Probability note:** the 55% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### Crypto — +0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 55.5, P25 75.3, median 105.0, P75 144.6, P90 183.9. The market price sits at the 45.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +10.0%, P10 -55.0% to P90 +105.0%. Scenario total-return model using economic-output/carry assumptions plus partial valuation convergence; short-horizon momentum is excluded.

### Japan Equities — -0.6 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.2, P25 90.1, median 97.0, P75 104.9, P90 112.8. The market price sits at the 59.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -18.0% to P90 +25.0%. Scenario total-return model using economic-output/carry assumptions plus partial valuation convergence; short-horizon momentum is excluded.

**Probability note:** the 52% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 57%.

### Metals — -0.7 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 74.3, P25 84.1, median 94.0, P75 105.9, P90 121.6. The market price sits at the 62.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.0%, P10 -28.0% to P90 +35.0%. Scenario total-return model using economic-output/carry assumptions plus partial valuation convergence; short-horizon momentum is excluded.

**Probability note:** the 48% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 66%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -0.9 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.2, P25 89.1, median 95.0, P75 102.9, P90 111.8. The market price sits at the 65.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.0%, P10 -19.0% to P90 +25.0%. Scenario total-return model using economic-output/carry assumptions plus partial valuation convergence; short-horizon momentum is excluded.

**Probability note:** the 50% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 63%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — -1.6 (Expensive)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 74.2, P25 82.1, median 90.0, P75 98.9, P90 109.7. The market price sits at the 76.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.5%, P10 -28.0% to P90 +32.0%. Scenario total-return model using economic-output/carry assumptions plus partial valuation convergence; short-horizon momentum is excluded.

**Probability note:** the 47% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 64%.

### Energy — -1.7 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 65.3, P25 75.1, median 84.0, P75 95.9, P90 114.5. The market price sits at the 78.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -4.0%, P10 -35.0% to P90 +42.0%. Scenario total-return model using economic-output/carry assumptions plus partial valuation convergence; short-horizon momentum is excluded.

**Probability note:** the 41% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### US Equities — -2.0 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 76.2, P25 82.1, median 88.0, P75 95.9, P90 102.8. The market price sits at the 83.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.5%, P10 -18.0% to P90 +18.0%. Scenario total-return model using economic-output/carry assumptions plus partial valuation convergence; short-horizon momentum is excluded.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-august-7-2026
2. Where to find value in the U.S. markets — Vanguard — https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/how-stock-bond-valuations-changed.html
3. Vanguard Capital Markets Model forecasts — Vanguard — https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-return-forecasts.html
4. Guide to the Markets - Asia — J.P. Morgan Asset Management — https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/guide-to-the-markets-asia.pdf
5. Back on the radar: The case for European equities — J.P. Morgan Asset Management — https://am.jpmorgan.com/gb/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/equity/case-for-europe/
6. Five reasons why the opportunity of emerging markets & Asia Pacific equities persists into 2026 — J.P. Morgan Asset Management — https://am.jpmorgan.com/sg/en/asset-management/institutional/insights/portfolio-insights/equity/emerging-markets-and-asia-pacific-equities/
7. Active Fixed Income Perspectives Q3 2026: Finding higher ground — Vanguard — https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/articles/active-fixed-income-perspectives-q3-2026-finding-higher-ground.html
8. Nareit REIT Industry Tracker Q2 2026 — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/nareit-reit-industry-tracker
9. 2026 Mid-Year Update: REITs Rebound, Poised for Future Gains and Growth — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/news/blog/market-commentary/2026-mid-year-update-reits-rebound-poised-future-gains-and-growth
10. Gold Demand Trends Q1 2026 press release — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/download/file/20795/Q1_2026_GDT_Press_Release_29_April.pdf
11. Central Banks Gold Reserves Survey 2026 press release — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/download/file/20916/Central%20Banks%20Survey%20Press%20Release%202026.pdf
12. Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2026 — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/
13. Oil Market Report - August 2026 — International Energy Agency — https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-august-2026
14. Q3 2026 Signals Report — Fidelity Digital Assets — https://fidelitydigitalassets.com/research-and-insights/q3-2026-signals-report
15. Market Capitalization - MVRV metric definition — Coin Metrics — https://gitbook-docs.coinmetrics.io/network-data/network-data-overview/market/market-capitalization

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.