---
title: "Valuation Lens — August 21, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-08-21"
data_cutoff: "2026-08-21T17:33:00-04:00"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "2026-08-21_valuation-lens_173300-et"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-08-21/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — August 21, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Aug 21, 2026, 5:33 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 3.99% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Emerging markets and China look cheapest; Japan screens richest**

The preferred one-year Treasury hurdle is 3.99%, with the 10-year at 4.69% and the 10-year real yield at 2.35%, keeping discount rates economically important.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +1.8 | Cheap | 110.4 | 100.9–118.6 | +10.4% | +12.0% | +8.0% |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +1.3 | Cheap | 106.0 | 98.0–113.0 | +6.0% | +11.0% | +7.0% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.2 | Fair | 102.5 | 81.5–123.7 | +2.5% | +10.0% | +6.0% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | +0.1 | Fair | 100.3 | 93.0–106.9 | +0.3% | +7.0% | +3.0% |
| Fixed Income | BND | -0.2 | Fair | 99.9 | 97.0–102.2 | -0.1% | +4.8% | +0.8% |
| Metals | GLD | -0.5 | Somewhat expensive | 96.7 | 87.0–108.0 | -3.3% | +2.0% | -2.0% |
| US Equities | SPY | -0.7 | Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | 90.0–104.2 | -3.0% | +5.5% | +1.5% |
| Energy | USO | -0.7 | Somewhat expensive | 95.0 | 82.4–107.3 | -5.0% | +1.0% | -3.0% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -1.1 | Somewhat expensive | 95.6 | 89.9–101.7 | -4.4% | +4.5% | +0.5% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.4 | Expensive | 94.2 | 88.2–100.4 | -5.8% | +3.5% | -0.5% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | -1.6 | Expensive | 93.4 | 86.4–100.0 | -6.6% | +4.0% | +0.0% |

### Emerging Markets Equities — +1.8 (Cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 94.1, P25 100.9, median 110.4, P75 118.6, P90 127.0. The market price sits at the 20.8th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 63% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 64%.

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +1.3 (Cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 92.0, P25 98.0, median 106.0, P75 113.0, P90 120.7. The market price sits at the 27.9th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 61% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 56%.

### Crypto — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 62.3, P25 81.5, median 102.5, P75 123.7, P90 143.1. The market price sits at the 47.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +10.0%, P10 -50.0% to P90 +100.0%. on_chain_network_and_liquidity_scenarios_with_wide_dispersion

### Real Estate — +0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 86.4, P25 93.0, median 100.3, P75 106.9, P90 113.1. The market price sits at the 48.1th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 68%.

### Fixed Income — -0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 94.8, P25 97.0, median 99.9, P75 102.2, P90 104.4. The market price sits at the 54.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.8%, P10 -2.0% to P90 +11.0%. starting_yield_duration_spread_scenarios

**Probability note:** the 56% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 65%.

### Metals — -0.5 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.0, P25 87.0, median 96.7, P75 108.0, P90 117.2. The market price sits at the 57.9th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 48% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 66%.

### US Equities — -0.7 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.7, P25 90.0, median 97.0, P75 104.2, P90 112.7. The market price sits at the 61.0th percentile of that distribution.

### Energy — -0.7 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 72.5, P25 82.4, median 95.0, P75 107.3, P90 117.3. The market price sits at the 61.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 46% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Europe Equities — -1.1 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.5, P25 89.9, median 95.6, P75 101.7, P90 108.0. The market price sits at the 67.8th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 52% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.4 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.2, P25 88.2, median 94.2, P75 100.4, P90 106.6. The market price sits at the 73.2th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 49% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 63%.

### Japan Equities — -1.6 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 80.8, P25 86.4, median 93.4, P75 100.0, P90 106.5. The market price sits at the 76.4th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 50% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 57%.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-august-7-2026
2. MSCI China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/302400/msci-china-index
3. MSCI Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/939200/msci-japan-index
4. MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/991400/msci-pacific-ex-japan-index
5. MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) ex China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/713021/msci-em-emerging-markets-ex-china-index
6. MSCI Europe Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990500/msci-europe-index
7. Australian Reporting Season Preview (FY26): 7 Things That Will Decide August — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/australian-reporting-season-preview-fy26-7-things-that-will-decide-august
8. 2026 Asia Mid-Year Outlook — J.P. Morgan Private Bank — https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/apac/en/insights/markets-and-investing/asf/2026-asia-mid-year-outlook
9. International equities outlook – April 2026 — Pitcher Partners — https://www.pitcher.com.au/investment-and-wealth/international-equities-outlook-april-2026/
10. BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/bnd/vanguard-total-bond-market-etf
11. Nareit REIT Industry Tracker — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/nareit-reit-industry-tracker
12. REIT Industry Financial Snapshot — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/reit-industry-financial-snapshot
13. Short-Term Energy Outlook — Global oil markets — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php
14. State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) — State Street Global Advisors — https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/state-street-energy-select-sector-spdr-etf-xle
15. Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2026: Point break — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-mid-year-outlook-2026
16. Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 — Outlook — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026/outlook
17. BTC MVRV Z-Score Chart — Glassnode — https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/market.MvrvZScore?a=BTC
18. Fidelity Digital Assets 2026 Look Ahead — Fidelity Digital Assets — https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/sites/g/files/djuvja3256/files/dam/r5s3ldbg78/fda_2026_lookaheadreport_v3.pdf
19. China equities – Weathering market volatility — Bank of Singapore — https://www.bankofsingapore.com/research/china-equities-weathering-market-volatility.html

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.