---
title: "Valuation Lens — August 20, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-08-20"
data_cutoff: "2026-08-20T17:53:00-04:00"
status: "intraday"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "2026-08-20_valuation-lens_175300-et"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-08-20/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — August 20, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Aug 20, 2026, 5:53 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.00% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**China and emerging markets lead value; real estate and energy lag**

The 1-year Treasury yields 4.00% on an investment basis, while real yields remain above 2%, keeping the discount-rate hurdle meaningful across risk assets.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +1.8 | Cheap | 109.5 | 101.0–118.2 | +9.5% | +10.4% | +6.4% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +1.3 | Cheap | 105.0 | 98.0–111.4 | +5.0% | +9.0% | +5.0% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +1.3 | Cheap | 106.7 | 99.0–114.3 | +6.7% | +10.6% | +6.6% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +1.3 | Cheap | 106.5 | 100.0–112.9 | +6.5% | +9.4% | +5.4% |
| Metals | GLD | +0.9 | Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | 92.0–115.1 | +3.0% | +4.8% | +0.8% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.8 | Somewhat cheap | 107.0 | 90.0–126.5 | +7.0% | +12.0% | +8.0% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | +0.2 | Fair | 101.0 | 95.0–106.5 | +1.0% | +6.8% | +2.8% |
| Fixed Income | BND | -0.1 | Fair | 100.0 | 98.0–102.3 | 0.0% | +4.6% | +0.6% |
| US Equities | SPY | -0.2 | Fair | 96.9 | 91.0–104.6 | -3.1% | +7.2% | +3.2% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.7 | Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | 92.0–102.2 | -4.0% | +4.9% | +0.9% |
| Energy | XLE | -0.7 | Somewhat expensive | 94.0 | 90.0–102.6 | -6.0% | +3.3% | -0.7% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +1.8 (Cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 92.5, P25 101.0, median 109.5, P75 118.2, P90 127.9. The market price sits at the 20.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +10.4%, P10 -1.2% to P90 +21.6%. Scenario model combining sustainable economic return, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty; not a price target.

**Probability note:** the 79% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 56%.

### Europe Equities — +1.3 (Cheap)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 91.4, P25 98.0, median 105.0, P75 111.4, P90 120.0. The market price sits at the 27.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.0%, P10 -0.2% to P90 +18.0%. Scenario model combining sustainable economic return, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty; not a price target.

**Probability note:** the 79% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +1.3 (Cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 91.5, P25 99.0, median 106.7, P75 114.3, P90 121.5. The market price sits at the 27.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +10.6%, P10 -0.4% to P90 +20.9%. Scenario model combining sustainable economic return, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty; not a price target.

**Probability note:** the 79% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 64%.

### Japan Equities — +1.3 (Cheap)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 94.6, P25 100.0, median 106.5, P75 112.9, P90 119.3. The market price sits at the 27.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.4%, P10 +0.7% to P90 +17.8%. Scenario model combining sustainable economic return, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty; not a price target.

**Probability note:** the 79% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 57%.

### Metals — +0.9 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.2, P25 92.0, median 103.0, P75 115.1, P90 128.3. The market price sits at the 34.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.8%, P10 -8.7% to P90 +19.2%. Scenario model combining sustainable economic return, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty; not a price target.

**Probability note:** the 54% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 66%.

### Crypto — +0.8 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 73.6, P25 90.0, median 107.0, P75 126.5, P90 147.8. The market price sits at the 37.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +12.0%, P10 -15.9% to P90 +39.9%. Scenario model combining sustainable economic return, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty; not a price target.

### Developed Pacific Equities — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.8, P25 95.0, median 101.0, P75 106.5, P90 111.8. The market price sits at the 47.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.8%, P10 -1.5% to P90 +14.2%. Scenario model combining sustainable economic return, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty; not a price target.

**Probability note:** the 63% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 63%.

### Fixed Income — -0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 96.1, P25 98.0, median 100.0, P75 102.3, P90 104.3. The market price sits at the 51.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.6%, P10 +1.8% to P90 +7.8%. Scenario model combining sustainable economic return, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty; not a price target.

**Probability note:** the 62% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 65%.

### US Equities — -0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.1, P25 91.0, median 96.9, P75 104.6, P90 115.0. The market price sits at the 53.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.2%, P10 -1.4% to P90 +17.7%. Scenario model combining sustainable economic return, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty; not a price target.

**Probability note:** the 67% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 80%.

### Real Estate — -0.7 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 86.0, P25 92.0, median 96.0, P75 102.2, P90 108.6. The market price sits at the 61.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.9%, P10 -2.7% to P90 +13.8%. Scenario model combining sustainable economic return, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty; not a price target.

**Probability note:** the 62% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 68%.

### Energy — -0.7 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: XLE (US Energy Sector)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.8, P25 90.0, median 94.0, P75 102.6, P90 111.3. The market price sits at the 61.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.3%, P10 -6.2% to P90 +16.0%. Scenario model combining sustainable economic return, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty; not a price target.

**Probability note:** the 49% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-august-7-2026
2. iShares MSCI China ETF | MCHI — iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239619/ishares-msci-china-etf
3. iShares MSCI Japan ETF | EWJ — iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239665/ishares-msci-japan-etf?qt=EWJ
4. iShares MSCI Australia ETF | EWA — iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239607/ishares-msci-australia-etf?qt=EWA
5. iShares MSCI Singapore ETF | EWS — iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239678/EWS
6. Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF | VWO — Vanguard — https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vwo
7. Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF | VGK — Vanguard — https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vgk
8. European corporate outlook keeps improving as recovery goes beyond energy profits — Reuters — https://www.reuters.com/business/european-corporate-outlook-keeps-improving-recovery-goes-beyond-energy-profits-2026-08-19/
9. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | BND — Vanguard — https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/bnd
10. Vanguard Real Estate ETF | VNQ — Vanguard — https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vnq
11. iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF | IYR — iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239520/
12. Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026
13. Short-Term Energy Outlook — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
14. A Market in Repair — Glassnode — https://research.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-24-2026/
15. Advanced Research and Analytical Metrics — Coin Metrics — https://coinmetrics.io/company-news/advanced-research-and-analytical-metrics/
16. Are Japanese Stocks at Risk of Falling as the Yen Surges? — Goldman Sachs — https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/are-japanese-stocks-at-risk-of-falling-as-the-yen-surges
17. Market Trends: August 2026 — BetaShares — https://www.betashares.com.au/insights/market-trends-august-2026/
18. 2026 Midyear Global Investment Outlook — BlackRock Investment Institute — https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/insights/blackrock-investment-institute/publications/outlook?switchLocale=Y

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.