---
title: "Valuation Lens — August 19, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-08-19"
data_cutoff: "2026-08-19T21:01:00-04:00"
status: "intraday"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "2026-08-19_valuation-lens_210100-et"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-08-19/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — August 19, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Aug 19, 2026, 9:01 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 3.99% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**Relative value favors China and Europe over U.S. equities**

The preferred 1-year Treasury hurdle is 3.99%, while 10-year nominal and real yields remain elevated at 4.71% and 2.41%.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +1.4 | Cheap | 112.0 | 99.0–126.0 | +12.0% | +9.5% | +5.5% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +1.0 | Somewhat cheap | 106.0 | 97.0–115.0 | +6.0% | +8.0% | +4.0% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +0.6 | Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | 94.0–115.0 | +4.0% | +8.0% | +4.0% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.5 | Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | 82.0–140.0 | +8.0% | +11.0% | +7.0% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.4 | Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | 97.0–104.0 | +1.0% | +4.8% | +0.8% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +0.2 | Fair | 101.0 | 94.0–109.0 | +1.0% | +7.0% | +3.0% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.3 | Fair | 98.0 | 90.0–108.0 | -2.0% | +6.2% | +2.2% |
| Metals | GLD | -0.7 | Somewhat expensive | 94.0 | 84.0–106.0 | -6.0% | +3.5% | -0.5% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -0.9 | Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | 90.0–103.0 | -4.0% | +5.5% | +1.5% |
| Energy | USO | -0.9 | Somewhat expensive | 92.0 | 82.0–105.0 | -8.0% | +3.5% | -0.5% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.3 | Expensive | 92.0 | 85.0–101.0 | -8.0% | +5.5% | +1.5% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +1.4 (Cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.0, P25 99.0, median 112.0, P75 126.0, P90 139.0. The market price sits at the 27.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.5%, P10 -14.0% to P90 +34.0%. Scenario return model combining income/carry, sustainable economic-output growth, and partial convergence toward the today-equivalent fair-value distribution; no recent-price momentum input.

**Probability note:** the 61% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 56%.

### Europe Equities — +1.0 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.0, P25 97.0, median 106.0, P75 115.0, P90 124.0. The market price sits at the 33.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -10.0% to P90 +25.0%. Scenario return model combining income/carry, sustainable economic-output growth, and partial convergence toward the today-equivalent fair-value distribution; no recent-price momentum input.

**Probability note:** the 63% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +0.6 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.0, P25 94.0, median 104.0, P75 115.0, P90 127.0. The market price sits at the 40.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -16.0% to P90 +32.0%. Scenario return model combining income/carry, sustainable economic-output growth, and partial convergence toward the today-equivalent fair-value distribution; no recent-price momentum input.

**Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 64%.

### Crypto — +0.5 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 65.0, P25 82.0, median 108.0, P75 140.0, P90 175.0. The market price sits at the 42.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +11.0%, P10 -45.0% to P90 +80.0%. Scenario return model combining income/carry, sustainable economic-output growth, and partial convergence toward the today-equivalent fair-value distribution; no recent-price momentum input.

### Fixed Income — +0.4 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 94.0, P25 97.0, median 101.0, P75 104.0, P90 108.0. The market price sits at the 43.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.8%, P10 -3.0% to P90 +11.0%. Scenario return model combining income/carry, sustainable economic-output growth, and partial convergence toward the today-equivalent fair-value distribution; no recent-price momentum input.

**Probability note:** the 56% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 65%.

### Japan Equities — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 86.0, P25 94.0, median 101.0, P75 109.0, P90 118.0. The market price sits at the 46.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -10.0% to P90 +25.0%. Scenario return model combining income/carry, sustainable economic-output growth, and partial convergence toward the today-equivalent fair-value distribution; no recent-price momentum input.

**Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 57%.

### Real Estate — -0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.0, P25 90.0, median 98.0, P75 108.0, P90 120.0. The market price sits at the 55.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.2%, P10 -13.0% to P90 +25.0%. Scenario return model combining income/carry, sustainable economic-output growth, and partial convergence toward the today-equivalent fair-value distribution; no recent-price momentum input.

**Probability note:** the 56% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 68%.

### Metals — -0.7 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 75.0, P25 84.0, median 94.0, P75 106.0, P90 120.0. The market price sits at the 62.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.5%, P10 -18.0% to P90 +28.0%. Scenario return model combining income/carry, sustainable economic-output growth, and partial convergence toward the today-equivalent fair-value distribution; no recent-price momentum input.

**Probability note:** the 49% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 66%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -0.9 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.0, P25 90.0, median 96.0, P75 103.0, P90 112.0. The market price sits at the 64.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -12.0% to P90 +25.0%. Scenario return model combining income/carry, sustainable economic-output growth, and partial convergence toward the today-equivalent fair-value distribution; no recent-price momentum input.

**Probability note:** the 54% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 63%.

### Energy — -0.9 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 72.0, P25 82.0, median 92.0, P75 105.0, P90 122.0. The market price sits at the 65.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.5%, P10 -25.0% to P90 +35.0%. Scenario return model combining income/carry, sustainable economic-output growth, and partial convergence toward the today-equivalent fair-value distribution; no recent-price momentum input.

**Probability note:** the 49% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### US Equities — -1.3 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 76.0, P25 85.0, median 92.0, P75 101.0, P90 111.0. The market price sits at the 72.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -12.0% to P90 +23.0%. Scenario return model combining income/carry, sustainable economic-output growth, and partial convergence toward the today-equivalent fair-value distribution; no recent-price momentum input.

**Probability note:** the 54% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 80%.

## Sources

1. State Street® SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust — State Street Global Advisors — https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/state-street-spdr-sp-500-etf-trust-spy
2. iShares MSCI China ETF — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239619/ishares-msci-china-etf
3. iShares MSCI Japan ETF — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239665/ishares-msci-japan-etf
4. iShares MSCI Australia ETF — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239607/ishares-msci-australia-etf
5. iShares MSCI Pacific ex Japan ETF — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239674/ishares-msci-pacific-ex-japan-etf
6. Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF — Vanguard — https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vgk
7. Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF — Vanguard — https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vwo
8. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF — Vanguard — https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/bnd
9. Vanguard Real Estate ETF SEC Yield — Vanguard — https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vnq/sec-yield
10. Short-Term Energy Outlook — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
11. Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026
12. A Market in Repair — Glassnode — https://research.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-24-2026/

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.