---
title: "Valuation Lens — August 18, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-08-18"
data_cutoff: "2026-08-18T21:17:00-04:00"
status: "intraday"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "2026-08-18_valuation-lens_211700-et"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-08-18/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — August 18, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Aug 18, 2026, 9:17 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.00% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**China screens cheap while US and EM valuations stay demanding**

The 1Y Treasury hurdle is 4.00%, while elevated long-term nominal and real yields keep discount-rate pressure relatively high across risk assets.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +1.7 | Cheap | 108.2 | 100.6–115.4 | +8.2% | +8.0% | +4.0% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.9 | Somewhat cheap | 113.0 | 90.6–133.4 | +13.0% | +12.0% | +8.0% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.6 | Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | 98.6–103.5 | +1.0% | +4.7% | +0.7% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +0.4 | Somewhat cheap | 102.1 | 96.5–108.0 | +2.1% | +7.5% | +3.5% |
| Metals | GLD | +0.4 | Somewhat cheap | 101.1 | 90.0–110.7 | +1.1% | +5.0% | +1.0% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +0.2 | Fair | 100.6 | 95.7–105.1 | +0.6% | +7.0% | +3.0% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWS | -0.2 | Fair | 98.1 | 93.0–104.1 | -1.9% | +6.0% | +2.0% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.7 | Somewhat expensive | 96.6 | 90.9–102.2 | -3.4% | +5.5% | +1.5% |
| Energy | USO | -1.1 | Somewhat expensive | 91.6 | 81.1–102.0 | -8.4% | +2.0% | -2.0% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | EMXC | -1.6 | Expensive | 90.0 | 80.7–98.2 | -10.0% | +4.5% | +0.5% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.7 | Expensive | 88.8 | 77.5–97.6 | -11.2% | +4.0% | 0.0% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +1.7 (Cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 92.2, P25 100.6, median 108.2, P75 115.4, P90 123.8. The market price sits at the 21.8th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 57% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 56%.

### Crypto — +0.9 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 67.8, P25 90.6, median 113.0, P75 133.4, P90 157.5. The market price sits at the 34.2th percentile of that distribution.

### Fixed Income — +0.6 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 96.3, P25 98.6, median 101.0, P75 103.5, P90 106.3. The market price sits at the 39.6th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 56% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 65%.

### Japan Equities — +0.4 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 90.5, P25 96.5, median 102.1, P75 108.0, P90 114.0. The market price sits at the 42.8th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 56% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 57%.

### Metals — +0.4 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.7, P25 90.0, median 101.1, P75 110.7, P90 122.5. The market price sits at the 42.8th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 51% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 66%.

### Europe Equities — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 90.5, P25 95.7, median 100.6, P75 105.1, P90 110.6. The market price sits at the 46.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 56% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: EWS (Singapore Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.8, P25 93.0, median 98.1, P75 104.1, P90 110.6. The market price sits at the 52.6th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 55% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 63%.

### Real Estate — -0.7 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.1, P25 90.9, median 96.6, P75 102.2, P90 109.7. The market price sits at the 61.9th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 53% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 68%.

### Energy — -1.1 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 69.6, P25 81.1, median 91.6, P75 102.0, P90 114.7. The market price sits at the 68.5th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 47% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — -1.6 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EMXC (Emerging Markets Ex-China)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 72.2, P25 80.7, median 90.0, P75 98.2, P90 108.5. The market price sits at the 76.8th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 51% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 64%.

### US Equities — -1.7 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 71.5, P25 77.5, median 88.8, P75 97.6, P90 105.4. The market price sits at the 78.7th percentile of that distribution.

## Sources

1. SPY: State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust — State Street Global Advisors — https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/state-street-spdr-sp-500-etf-trust-spy
2. Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vgk/vanguard-ftse-europe-etf
3. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239665/ishares-msci-japan-etf
4. iShares MSCI Singapore ETF (EWS) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239678/ishares-msci-singapore-capped-etf
5. iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF (EMXC) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/288504/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-ex-china-etf
6. iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239619/ishares-msci-china-etf
7. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) — Vanguard — https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/bnd
8. Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vnq/vanguard-real-estate-etf
9. United States Oil Fund (USO) — USCF Investments — https://www.uscfinvestments.com/uso
10. Short-Term Energy Outlook — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
11. Oil Market Report — August 2026 — International Energy Agency — https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-august-2026
12. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) — Charts, data and downloads — World Gold Trust Services — https://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/gld/
13. Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026
14. iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239655/ishares-msci-global-metals-mining-producers-etf
15. A Market in Repair — Glassnode — https://research.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-24-2026/
16. Green Shoots — Glassnode — https://research.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-28-2026/
17. Robert J. Shiller U.S. Stock Markets 1871-Present — Robert J. Shiller — https://shillerdata.com/

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.