Valuation Lens - August 17, 2026
China and emerging markets screen cheaper, while U.S. equities remain expensive against strong earnings and a near-4% Treasury hurdle.
CXProWealth.com
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Cross-asset valuation & forward return intelligence
Valuation Lens - August 17, 2026
China leads value while U.S. equities remain expensive
As of August 17, 2026
11 Asset Classes Valued
72 Valuation Instruments
1Y Treasury 3.98%
Research cutoff · Aug 17, 2026 · 21:09 UTC
WHAT THIS REPORT DOES How Valuation Lens estimates present fair value and identifies markets that look cheap, fair, or expensive.
VALUATION FRAMEWORK
Valuation Lens helps investors judge whether current market pricing looks cheap, fair, or expensive relative to modeled present fair value.
Each asset class is evaluated by comparing today’s market price with a distribution of defensible current economic values. That fair-value distribution is built from asset-specific fundamentals, expected growth and cash-flow progression, valuation relationships and multiples, interest-rate and real-yield conditions, historical valuation context, and other relevant economic anchors. The result is not a pure price target: it is a structured estimate of what the asset could reasonably be worth today under a range of economically defensible assumptions.
Undervalued vs overvalued
Where market price sits within the modeled fair-value distribution determines the valuation score: toward the lower tail means cheaper, toward the upper tail means more expensive, and near the center is closer to fair.
Decision-useful outputs
The report highlights fair-value gap, modeled expected return, expected edge versus the 1Y Treasury benchmark, and confidence in the valuation signal.
How to use it
Use the valuation score and fair-value curve as a disciplined decision aid alongside risk, diversification, and time-horizon considerations.
1Y Treasury benchmark
3.98%
Low-risk return reference
Cheapest valuation
China & HK
+1.4 · Cheap
Most expensive valuation
U.S. Equities
-1.6 · Expensive
Highest expected edge vs Treasury
+8.0%
Crypto
Cross-asset valuation & expected return
Valuation opportunity map
Green = cheaper relative to modeled fair value. Red = more expensive. Tiles are ordered from cheaper to more expensive.
CHEAPER +3-3 MORE EXPENSIVE
China & HK
+1.4
Cheap
Fair gap +12.0% · Edge +6.0%
Japan Equities
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +3.0% · Edge +3.0%
Europe Equities
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +4.0% · Edge +3.0%
Emerging Mkts
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +6.0% · Edge +4.0%
Fixed Income
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +1.0% · Edge +1.0%
Crypto
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +5.0% · Edge +8.0%
Metals
-0.1
Fair
Fair gap 0.0% · Edge +1.0%
Developed Pacific
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
Fair gap -1.0% · Edge +1.5%
Energy
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
Fair gap -4.0% · Edge 0.0%
Real Estate
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
Fair gap -1.0% · Edge +2.0%
U.S. Equities
-1.6
Expensive
Fair gap -4.0% · Edge +1.5%
Select an asset to open its fair value, expected returns, historical calibration, key drivers, and risks.
Detailed valuation dashboard
M = Market price (100) · F = Median fair value · common axis 60–140
How to read the fair-value curve
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, the chart shows the range of defensible current economic values.
M Market price normalized to 100
F Median modeled fair value
P25–P75 central fair-value range
| Asset class | Fair-value distribution | Valuation | Fair-value gap | 1Y expected | Expected edge vs 1Y Treasury | Val. confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
China & Hong Kong Equities
View details
|
|
+1.4 Cheap | +12.0% Fair 112 | +10.0% -20% to +40% | +6.0% Treasury 4.0% | 78% moderate-high |
|
Japan Equities
View details
|
|
+0.9 Somewhat cheap | +3.0% Fair 103 | +7.0% -15% to +28% | +3.0% Treasury 4.0% | 81% high |
|
Europe Equities
View details
|
|
+0.9 Somewhat cheap | +4.0% Fair 104 | +7.0% -15% to +27% | +3.0% Treasury 4.0% | 80% high |
|
Emerging Markets Equities
View details
|
|
+0.9 Somewhat cheap | +6.0% Fair 106 | +8.0% -22% to +35% | +4.0% Treasury 4.0% | 75% moderate-high |
|
Fixed Income
View details
|
|
+0.4 Somewhat cheap | +1.0% Fair 101 | +5.0% -4% to +11% | +1.0% Treasury 4.0% | 90% high |
|
Crypto
View details
|
|
+0.4 Somewhat cheap | +5.0% Fair 105 | +12.0% -55% to +95% | +8.0% Treasury 4.0% | 56% moderate |
|
Metals
View details
|
|
-0.1 Fair | 0.0% Fair 100 | +5.0% -18% to +28% | +1.0% Treasury 4.0% | 65% moderate-high |
|
Developed Pacific Equities
View details
|
|
-0.7 Somewhat expensive | -1.0% Fair 99 | +5.5% -16% to +25% | +1.5% Treasury 4.0% | 78% moderate-high |
|
Energy
View details
|
|
-0.7 Somewhat expensive | -4.0% Fair 96 | +4.0% -28% to +38% | 0.0% Treasury 4.0% | 72% moderate-high |
|
Real Estate
View details
|
|
-0.7 Somewhat expensive | -1.0% Fair 99 | +6.0% -18% to +30% | +2.0% Treasury 4.0% | 68% moderate-high |
|
US Equities
View details
|
|
-1.6 Expensive | -4.0% Fair 96 | +5.5% -17% to +25% | +1.5% Treasury 4.0% | 81% high |
Per-asset-class details · select a row to expand
1 China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI · Median fair value 112 Valuation +1.4 Cheap Fair-value gap +12.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +6.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 78% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
China & Hong Kong Equities is cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 112
P25–P75 99–118
MCHI China Broad Market
Last 55.06 · 2026-08-17
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · MCHI
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0582.0
P1091.0
P2599.0
Median112.0
Mean111.2
P75118.0
P90134.0
P95134.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+10.0%
P10 -20.0% · P25 -7.0% · P75 +25.0% · P90 +40.0%
3Y annualized+8.0%
P10 -8.0% · P25 +1.0% · P75 +15.0% · P90 +22.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate56%
Raw observations173
Effective sample19.9
History2011-03-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Low broad-market earnings and book multiples provide a meaningful valuation cushion.
- Positive medium-term economic growth can support earnings normalization if weak domestic demand stabilizes.
Fair-value risks
- Low multiples may reflect structurally weaker credit demand and investor risk premia rather than simple mispricing.
- The valuation range remains wide because policy, property, and geopolitical outcomes can alter justified multiples quickly.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation scenario99
Lower justified-value case reflecting adverse growth, discount-rate, or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 25%
Base valuation scenario112
Central current-economic-value case using balanced current fundamentals and discount-rate assumptions.
Model weight 50%
Bull valuation scenario118
Higher justified-value case reflecting stronger fundamentals, lower required returns, or favorable asset-specific economics.
Model weight 25%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHIChina Broad Market | direct | 55.06 | 112 | +1.4 · Cheap | +10.0% |
| FXIChina Large-Cap | proxy | 35.10 | 112 | +1.4 · Cheap | +10.0% |
| KWEBChina Internet Sector | proxy | 26.95 | 112 | +1.4 · Cheap | +10.0% |
| ASHRChina A-Shares | proxy | 35.20 | 112 | +1.4 · Cheap | +10.0% |
| CQQQChina Technology Sector | proxy | 51.79 | 112 | +1.4 · Cheap | +10.0% |
| CHIQChina Consumer Sector | proxy | 17.70 | 112 | +1.4 · Cheap | +10.0% |
| EWHHong Kong Broad Market | proxy | 22.49 | 112 | +1.4 · Cheap | +10.0% |
| 2800.HKHang Seng Index Tracker | proxy | 25.60 | 112 | +1.4 · Cheap | +10.0% |
| 3033.HKHang Seng Technology Index | proxy | 4.616 | 112 | +1.4 · Cheap | +10.0% |
| 3110.HKHong Kong High-Dividend Equity | proxy | 30.90 | 112 | +1.4 · Cheap | +10.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor current-fundamental, relative-valuation, discount-rate, and asset-specific scenarios normalized to current market price 100.
Sources: BlackRock iShares · Vanguard
2 Japan Equities EWJ · Median fair value 103 Valuation +0.9 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +3.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +3.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 81% high
VALUATION LENS
Japan Equities is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 103
P25–P75 96–106
EWJ Japan Broad Market
Last 98.17 · 2026-08-17
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWJ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0584.0
P1091.0
P2596.0
Median103.0
Mean102.5
P75106.0
P90116.0
P95116.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+7.0%
P10 -15.0% · P25 -5.0% · P75 +18.0% · P90 +28.0%
3Y annualized+7.0%
P10 -4.0% · P25 +1.0% · P75 +12.0% · P90 +16.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate57%
Raw observations352
Effective sample37.7
History1996-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Dividend yield and broad profitability support the current valuation anchor.
- A diversified corporate base and improving capital discipline support moderate justified multiples.
Fair-value risks
- The broad-market multiple is no longer obviously cheap after strong repricing.
- Slower domestic growth and higher Japanese policy rates can cap further multiple expansion.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation scenario96
Lower justified-value case reflecting adverse growth, discount-rate, or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 25%
Base valuation scenario103
Central current-economic-value case using balanced current fundamentals and discount-rate assumptions.
Model weight 50%
Bull valuation scenario106
Higher justified-value case reflecting stronger fundamentals, lower required returns, or favorable asset-specific economics.
Model weight 25%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJJapan Broad Market | direct | 98.17 | 103 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +7.0% |
| DXJJapan Hedged Equity | proxy | 181.55 | 103 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +7.0% |
| SCJJapan Small-Cap Equity | proxy | 110.10 | 103 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +7.0% |
| EWJVJapan Value Equity | proxy | 47.88 | 103 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +7.0% |
| JPXNJapan JPX-Nikkei 400 | proxy | 104.75 | 103 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +7.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor current-fundamental, relative-valuation, discount-rate, and asset-specific scenarios normalized to current market price 100.
Sources: BlackRock iShares · Vanguard
3 Europe Equities VGK · Median fair value 104 Valuation +0.9 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +4.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +3.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 80% high
VALUATION LENS
Europe Equities is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 104
P25–P75 96–109
VGK Europe Broad Market
Last 92.10 · 2026-08-17
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VGK
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0584.0
P1091.0
P2596.0
Median104.0
Mean104.5
P75109.0
P90122.0
P95122.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+7.0%
P10 -15.0% · P25 -4.0% · P75 +18.0% · P90 +27.0%
3Y annualized+7.0%
P10 -4.0% · P25 +1.0% · P75 +13.0% · P90 +18.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate62%
Raw observations245
Effective sample27.2
History2005-03-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- A mid-to-high teens valuation multiple is moderate relative to U.S. equities.
- Double-digit portfolio earnings growth supports a modestly positive fair-value gap.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation scenario96
Lower justified-value case reflecting adverse growth, discount-rate, or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 25%
Base valuation scenario104
Central current-economic-value case using balanced current fundamentals and discount-rate assumptions.
Model weight 50%
Bull valuation scenario109
Higher justified-value case reflecting stronger fundamentals, lower required returns, or favorable asset-specific economics.
Model weight 25%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGKEurope Broad Market | direct | 92.10 | 104 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +7.0% |
| EZUEurozone Equity Index | proxy | 71.88 | 104 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +7.0% |
| EWUUnited Kingdom Index | proxy | 48.16 | 104 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +7.0% |
| EWGGermany Index | proxy | 43.96 | 104 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +7.0% |
| EWQFrance Index | proxy | 47.14 | 104 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +7.0% |
| EWLSwitzerland Index | proxy | 62.92 | 104 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +7.0% |
4 Emerging Markets Equities VWO · Median fair value 106 Valuation +0.9 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +6.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +4.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 75% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Emerging Markets Equities is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 106
P25–P75 94–112
VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index
Last 60.39 · 2026-08-17
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VWO
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0578.0
P1087.0
P2594.0
Median106.0
Mean106.2
P75112.0
P90131.0
P95131.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+8.0%
P10 -22.0% · P25 -8.0% · P75 +22.0% · P90 +35.0%
3Y annualized+7.5%
P10 -7.0% · P25 0.0% · P75 +15.0% · P90 +22.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate64%
Raw observations245
Effective sample30.7
History2005-03-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Mid-teens portfolio earnings growth supports a modest fair-value premium to the current market.
- Valuation remains below U.S. large-cap levels, leaving more room for growth to translate into value.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation scenario94
Lower justified-value case reflecting adverse growth, discount-rate, or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 25%
Base valuation scenario106
Central current-economic-value case using balanced current fundamentals and discount-rate assumptions.
Model weight 50%
Bull valuation scenario112
Higher justified-value case reflecting stronger fundamentals, lower required returns, or favorable asset-specific economics.
Model weight 25%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWOEmerging Markets Broad Index | direct | 60.39 | 106 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +8.0% |
| EMXCEmerging Markets Ex-China | proxy | 98.30 | 106 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +8.0% |
| INDAIndia Index | proxy | 49.58 | 106 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +8.0% |
| EWZBrazil Index | proxy | 33.97 | 106 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +8.0% |
| EWTTaiwan Index | proxy | 107.80 | 106 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +8.0% |
| EWYSouth Korea Index | proxy | 185.10 | 106 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +8.0% |
| EZASouth Africa Index | proxy | 68.19 | 106 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +8.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor current-fundamental, relative-valuation, discount-rate, and asset-specific scenarios normalized to current market price 100.
Sources: Vanguard
5 Fixed Income BND · Median fair value 101 Valuation +0.4 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +1.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 90% high
VALUATION LENS
Fixed Income is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 101
P25–P75 97–103
BND US Broad Bond Market
Last 72.16 · 2026-08-17
fixed_income_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BND
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0591.0
P1094.0
P2597.0
Median101.0
Mean100.9
P75103.0
P90109.0
P95109.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+5.0%
P10 -4.0% · P25 +2.0% · P75 +8.0% · P90 +11.0%
3Y annualized+4.8%
P10 +1.5% · P25 +3.0% · P75 +6.5% · P90 +8.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate65%
Raw observations220
Effective sample20.8
History2007-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Starting yield is close to the 10-year Treasury yield and above the one-year Treasury hurdle.
- Intermediate duration provides upside if justified yields fall without requiring large spread compression.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation scenario97
Lower justified-value case reflecting adverse growth, discount-rate, or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 25%
Base valuation scenario101
Central current-economic-value case using balanced current fundamentals and discount-rate assumptions.
Model weight 50%
Bull valuation scenario103
Higher justified-value case reflecting stronger fundamentals, lower required returns, or favorable asset-specific economics.
Model weight 25%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNDUS Broad Bond Market | direct | 72.16 | 101 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +5.0% |
| TLTLong-Term US Treasuries | proxy | 81.35 | 101 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +5.0% |
| IEFIntermediate US Treasuries | proxy | 92.84 | 101 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +5.0% |
| SHYShort-Term US Treasuries | proxy | 82.00 | 101 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +5.0% |
| TIPInflation-Protected Treasuries | proxy | 106.77 | 101 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +5.0% |
| LQDInvestment-Grade Corporate Bonds | proxy | 105.70 | 101 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +5.0% |
| HYGHigh-Yield Corporate Bonds | proxy | 79.61 | 101 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +5.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor current-fundamental, relative-valuation, discount-rate, and asset-specific scenarios normalized to current market price 100.
Sources: Vanguard
6 Crypto BTC-USD · Median fair value 105 Valuation +0.4 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +5.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +8.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 56% moderate
VALUATION LENS
Crypto is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 105
P25–P75 72–125
BTC-USD Bitcoin
Last 64,325.01 · 2026-08-17
crypto_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BTC-USD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0545.0
P1058.0
P2572.0
Median105.0
Mean108.7
P75125.0
P90180.0
P95180.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+12.0%
P10 -55.0% · P25 -25.0% · P75 +55.0% · P90 +95.0%
3Y annualized+12.0%
P10 -30.0% · P25 -8.0% · P75 +38.0% · P90 +60.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Key valuation metrics
Bitcoin current price
64325.0 USD
Structured current market anchor
Broad M2 growth
5.53 % YoY
Structured liquidity context
1Y U.S. Treasury hurdle
3.98 %
Current external hurdle
Fair-value drivers
- Scarce supply, ongoing institutional infrastructure, and on-chain adoption remain defensible long-term value anchors.
- Current price is well below the prior year's high, but that price path itself is not used as valuation evidence.
Fair-value risks
- Bitcoin has no contractual cash-flow anchor, so fair-value dispersion is much wider than for bonds or equities.
- Fidelity notes that bitcoin's historical relationship with broad liquidity has recently weakened, reducing confidence in macro-only valuation anchors.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation scenario72
Lower justified-value case reflecting adverse growth, discount-rate, or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 25%
Base valuation scenario105
Central current-economic-value case using balanced current fundamentals and discount-rate assumptions.
Model weight 50%
Bull valuation scenario125
Higher justified-value case reflecting stronger fundamentals, lower required returns, or favorable asset-specific economics.
Model weight 25%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USDBitcoin | direct | 64,325.01 | 105 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +12.0% |
| ETH-USDEthereum | proxy | 1,907.4 | 105 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +12.0% |
| SOL-USDSolana | proxy | 75.97 | 105 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +12.0% |
| XRP-USDXRP | proxy | 1.003 | 105 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +12.0% |
| BNB-USDBNB | proxy | 605.05 | 105 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +12.0% |
| ADA-USDCardano | proxy | 0.17444 | 105 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +12.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor current-fundamental, relative-valuation, discount-rate, and asset-specific scenarios normalized to current market price 100.
Limitations: Crypto lacks contractual cash flows and no universally accepted intrinsic-value method exists; the fair-value distribution is intentionally wide and model reliability is lower.
Sources: Fidelity Digital Assets · Coin Metrics
7 Metals GLD · Median fair value 100 Valuation -0.1 Fair Fair-value gap 0.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 65% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Metals is fair
M Market 100
F Fair 100
P25–P75 90–106
GLD Gold
Last 405.49 · 2026-08-17
metal_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · GLD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0576.0
P1084.0
P2590.0
Median100.0
Mean100.8
P75106.0
P90122.0
P95122.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+5.0%
P10 -18.0% · P25 -7.0% · P75 +17.0% · P90 +28.0%
3Y annualized+4.5%
P10 -6.0% · P25 -1.0% · P75 +10.0% · P90 +15.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate66%
Raw observations249
Effective sample28.0
History2004-11-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
10Y real Treasury yield
2.41 %
Current real-rate anchor
Fair-value drivers
- Investment demand is expected to lead gold demand growth through the rest of 2026.
- Central banks remain significant buyers, supporting a structural non-yield valuation anchor.
Fair-value risks
- High positive real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals.
- High prices can suppress jewellery demand and induce some recycling or supply response.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation scenario90
Lower justified-value case reflecting adverse growth, discount-rate, or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 25%
Base valuation scenario100
Central current-economic-value case using balanced current fundamentals and discount-rate assumptions.
Model weight 50%
Bull valuation scenario106
Higher justified-value case reflecting stronger fundamentals, lower required returns, or favorable asset-specific economics.
Model weight 25%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLDGold | direct | 405.49 | 100 | -0.1 · Fair | +5.0% |
| SLVSilver | proxy | 59.57 | 100 | -0.1 · Fair | +5.0% |
| PPLTPlatinum | proxy | 16.07 | 100 | -0.1 · Fair | +5.0% |
| CPERCopper | proxy | 40.13 | 100 | -0.1 · Fair | +5.0% |
| DBBBase Metals | proxy | 25.44 | 100 | -0.1 · Fair | +5.0% |
| GDXGold Miners | proxy | 91.89 | 100 | -0.1 · Fair | +5.0% |
| PICKGlobal Metals and Mining | proxy | 63.05 | 100 | -0.1 · Fair | +5.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor current-fundamental, relative-valuation, discount-rate, and asset-specific scenarios normalized to current market price 100.
Limitations: Commodity and non-cash-flow valuation is highly sensitive to macro and supply-demand assumptions; fair-value dispersion is wider than for contractual cash-flow assets.
Sources: World Gold Council · World Gold Council
8 Developed Pacific Equities EWA · Median fair value 99 Valuation -0.7 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -1.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 78% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Developed Pacific Equities is somewhat expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 99
P25–P75 93–102
EWA Australia Broad Market
Last 29.55 · 2026-08-17
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWA
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0582.0
P1088.0
P2593.0
Median99.0
Mean98.7
P75102.0
P90111.0
P95111.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+5.5%
P10 -16.0% · P25 -6.0% · P75 +16.0% · P90 +25.0%
3Y annualized+6.0%
P10 -4.0% · P25 +1.0% · P75 +11.0% · P90 +15.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate63%
Raw observations352
Effective sample44.3
History1996-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Singapore's income profile and diversified regional exposure support the central value estimate.
- Healthy developed-market balance sheets provide a steadier valuation anchor than more leveraged emerging exposures.
Fair-value risks
- Australia, the representative benchmark, trades at a relatively full earnings multiple.
- Commodity sensitivity and differing local rate regimes create material dispersion across the regional basket.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation scenario93
Lower justified-value case reflecting adverse growth, discount-rate, or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 25%
Base valuation scenario99
Central current-economic-value case using balanced current fundamentals and discount-rate assumptions.
Model weight 50%
Bull valuation scenario102
Higher justified-value case reflecting stronger fundamentals, lower required returns, or favorable asset-specific economics.
Model weight 25%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWAAustralia Broad Market | direct | 29.55 | 99 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +5.5% |
| EWSSingapore Broad Market | proxy | 33.92 | 99 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +5.5% |
| ENZLNew Zealand Broad Market | proxy | 47.12 | 99 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +5.5% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor current-fundamental, relative-valuation, discount-rate, and asset-specific scenarios normalized to current market price 100.
Sources: BlackRock iShares · BlackRock iShares
9 Energy USO · Median fair value 96 Valuation -0.7 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -4.0% vs market 100 Expected edge 0.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 72% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Energy is somewhat expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 96
P25–P75 82–103
USO US Crude Oil
Last 130.29 · 2026-08-17
energy_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · USO
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0568.0
P1075.0
P2582.0
Median96.0
Mean95.9
P75103.0
P90121.0
P95121.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+4.0%
P10 -28.0% · P25 -12.0% · P75 +22.0% · P90 +38.0%
3Y annualized+4.5%
P10 -10.0% · P25 -2.0% · P75 +12.0% · P90 +18.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate44%
Raw observations232
Effective sample44.8
History2006-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Hormuz disruptions keep near-term crude balances tighter than previously expected.
- Producer cash flows remain supported while spot prices stay near current elevated levels.
Fair-value risks
- EIA's central path has Brent below the current spot price later in 2026 as traffic and production recover.
- Commodity fair value is highly sensitive to geopolitical supply assumptions, so the modeled range is intentionally wide.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation scenario82
Lower justified-value case reflecting adverse growth, discount-rate, or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 25%
Base valuation scenario96
Central current-economic-value case using balanced current fundamentals and discount-rate assumptions.
Model weight 50%
Bull valuation scenario103
Higher justified-value case reflecting stronger fundamentals, lower required returns, or favorable asset-specific economics.
Model weight 25%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USOUS Crude Oil | direct | 130.29 | 96 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +4.0% |
| BNOBrent Crude Oil | proxy | 51.97 | 96 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +4.0% |
| UNGNatural Gas | proxy | 9.830 | 96 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +4.0% |
| XLEUS Energy Sector | proxy | 62.58 | 96 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +4.0% |
| XOPOil and Gas Producers | proxy | 183.35 | 96 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +4.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor current-fundamental, relative-valuation, discount-rate, and asset-specific scenarios normalized to current market price 100.
Limitations: Commodity and non-cash-flow valuation is highly sensitive to macro and supply-demand assumptions; fair-value dispersion is wider than for contractual cash-flow assets.
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration · U.S. Energy Information Administration
10 Real Estate VNQ · Median fair value 99 Valuation -0.7 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -1.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +2.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 68% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Real Estate is somewhat expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 99
P25–P75 92–103
VNQ US Real Estate
Last 97.98 · 2026-08-17
reit_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VNQ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0580.0
P1087.0
P2592.0
Median99.0
Mean99.3
P75103.0
P90115.0
P95115.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+6.0%
P10 -18.0% · P25 -6.0% · P75 +18.0% · P90 +30.0%
3Y annualized+6.0%
P10 -5.0% · P25 0.0% · P75 +13.0% · P90 +18.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate68%
Raw observations251
Effective sample26.0
History2004-09-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- REIT operating earnings continue to grow and public-market dividend income remains meaningful.
- Property-sector diversification provides multiple cash-flow anchors rather than one single economic driver.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation scenario92
Lower justified-value case reflecting adverse growth, discount-rate, or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 25%
Base valuation scenario99
Central current-economic-value case using balanced current fundamentals and discount-rate assumptions.
Model weight 50%
Bull valuation scenario103
Higher justified-value case reflecting stronger fundamentals, lower required returns, or favorable asset-specific economics.
Model weight 25%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQUS Real Estate | direct | 97.98 | 99 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +6.0% |
| XLREUS Real Estate Sector | proxy | 44.83 | 99 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +6.0% |
| REETGlobal Real Estate | proxy | 27.97 | 99 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +6.0% |
| REMMortgage Real Estate | proxy | 22.05 | 99 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +6.0% |
| SRVRData Center and Digital REITs | proxy | 32.31 | 99 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +6.0% |
| REZResidential and Specialized REITs | proxy | 94.59 | 99 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +6.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor current-fundamental, relative-valuation, discount-rate, and asset-specific scenarios normalized to current market price 100.
Limitations: Current broad P/FFO and NAV-discount data were not consistently available for the full supplied REIT universe; the model therefore relies more heavily on income, growth, and rate-spread anchors.
11 US Equities SPY · Median fair value 96 Valuation -1.6 Expensive Fair-value gap -4.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 81% high
VALUATION LENS
US Equities is expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 96
P25–P75 89–99
SPY US Large-Cap Index
Last 772.67 · 2026-08-17
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · SPY
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0578.0
P1084.0
P2589.0
Median96.0
Mean95.4
P7599.0
P90108.0
P95108.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+5.5%
P10 -17.0% · P25 -7.0% · P75 +15.0% · P90 +25.0%
3Y annualized+5.5%
P10 -4.0% · P25 +1.0% · P75 +9.0% · P90 +13.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate80%
Raw observations391
Effective sample31.0
History1993-01-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Forward 12M P/E
19.6 x
5Y avg 19.9x; 10Y avg 19.0x
CY 2026 earnings growth
29.1 %
FactSet analyst estimate
Shiller CAPE
41.2 x
30Y percentile 95%; full-history percentile 99%
10Y real Treasury yield
2.41 %
Current real discount-rate anchor
Fair-value drivers
- Exceptional near-term earnings growth supports current economic output.
- Forward P/E is close to its recent 5- and 10-year averages despite higher earnings expectations.
Fair-value risks
- CAPE remains near the extreme high end of long-run history.
- Positive real yields and a near-4% one-year Treasury hurdle constrain justified long-duration multiples.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Bear valuation scenario89
Lower justified-value case reflecting adverse growth, discount-rate, or asset-specific assumptions.
Model weight 25%
Base valuation scenario96
Central current-economic-value case using balanced current fundamentals and discount-rate assumptions.
Model weight 50%
Bull valuation scenario99
Higher justified-value case reflecting stronger fundamentals, lower required returns, or favorable asset-specific economics.
Model weight 25%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPYUS Large-Cap Index | direct | 772.67 | 96 | -1.6 · Expensive | +5.5% |
| QQQUS Technology Index | proxy | 729.87 | 96 | -1.6 · Expensive | +5.5% |
| DIAUS Blue-Chip Index | proxy | 534.19 | 96 | -1.6 · Expensive | +5.5% |
| IWMUS Small-Cap Index | proxy | 304.06 | 96 | -1.6 · Expensive | +5.5% |
| RSPUS Equal-Weight Index | proxy | 220.79 | 96 | -1.6 · Expensive | +5.5% |
| XLFUS Financial Sector | proxy | 57.58 | 96 | -1.6 · Expensive | +5.5% |
| XLIUS Industrial Sector | proxy | 186.32 | 96 | -1.6 · Expensive | +5.5% |
| XLVUS Healthcare Sector | proxy | 167.05 | 96 | -1.6 · Expensive | +5.5% |
| XLYUS Consumer Discretionary Sector | proxy | 116.75 | 96 | -1.6 · Expensive | +5.5% |
| SMHUS Semiconductor Sector | proxy | 594.07 | 96 | -1.6 · Expensive | +5.5% |
Method & data quality
Weighted multi-anchor current-fundamental, relative-valuation, discount-rate, and asset-specific scenarios normalized to current market price 100.
Valuation instruments 72
Only instruments with usable valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
2800.HK
proxy
Hang Seng Index Tracker
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 25.60
Fair 112
Val. +1.4
1Y +10.0%
Hang Seng Index Tracker uses the China & Hong Kong Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
3033.HK
proxy
Hang Seng Technology Index
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 4.616
Fair 112
Val. +1.4
1Y +10.0%
Hang Seng Technology Index uses the China & Hong Kong Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
3110.HK
proxy
Hong Kong High-Dividend Equity
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 30.90
Fair 112
Val. +1.4
1Y +10.0%
Hong Kong High-Dividend Equity uses the China & Hong Kong Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
ADA-USD
proxy
Cardano
Crypto
Last 0.17444
Fair 105
Val. +0.4
1Y +12.0%
Cardano uses the Crypto asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
ASHR
proxy
China A-Shares
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 35.20
Fair 112
Val. +1.4
1Y +10.0%
China A-Shares uses the China & Hong Kong Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
BNB-USD
proxy
BNB
Crypto
Last 605.05
Fair 105
Val. +0.4
1Y +12.0%
BNB uses the Crypto asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
BND
direct
US Broad Bond Market
Fixed Income
Last 72.16
Fair 101
Val. +0.4
1Y +5.0%
US Broad Bond Market is the representative benchmark for the asset-class valuation model.
BNO
proxy
Brent Crude Oil
Energy
Last 51.97
Fair 96
Val. -0.7
1Y +4.0%
Brent Crude Oil uses the Energy asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
BTC-USD
direct
Bitcoin
Crypto
Last 64,325.01
Fair 105
Val. +0.4
1Y +12.0%
Bitcoin is the representative benchmark for the asset-class valuation model.
CHIQ
proxy
China Consumer Sector
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 17.70
Fair 112
Val. +1.4
1Y +10.0%
China Consumer Sector uses the China & Hong Kong Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
CPER
proxy
Copper
Metals
Last 40.13
Fair 100
Val. -0.1
1Y +5.0%
Copper uses the Metals asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
CQQQ
proxy
China Technology Sector
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 51.79
Fair 112
Val. +1.4
1Y +10.0%
China Technology Sector uses the China & Hong Kong Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
DBB
proxy
Base Metals
Metals
Last 25.44
Fair 100
Val. -0.1
1Y +5.0%
Base Metals uses the Metals asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
DIA
proxy
US Blue-Chip Index
US Equities
Last 534.19
Fair 96
Val. -1.6
1Y +5.5%
US Blue-Chip Index uses the US Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
DXJ
proxy
Japan Hedged Equity
Japan Equities
Last 181.55
Fair 103
Val. +0.9
1Y +7.0%
Japan Hedged Equity uses the Japan Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
EMXC
proxy
Emerging Markets Ex-China
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 98.30
Fair 106
Val. +0.9
1Y +8.0%
Emerging Markets Ex-China uses the Emerging Markets Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
ENZL
proxy
New Zealand Broad Market
Developed Pacific Equities
Last 47.12
Fair 99
Val. -0.7
1Y +5.5%
New Zealand Broad Market uses the Developed Pacific Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
ETH-USD
proxy
Ethereum
Crypto
Last 1,907.4
Fair 105
Val. +0.4
1Y +12.0%
Ethereum uses the Crypto asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
EWA
direct
Australia Broad Market
Developed Pacific Equities
Last 29.55
Fair 99
Val. -0.7
1Y +5.5%
Australia Broad Market is the representative benchmark for the asset-class valuation model.
EWG
proxy
Germany Index
Europe Equities
Last 43.96
Fair 104
Val. +0.9
1Y +7.0%
Germany Index uses the Europe Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
EWH
proxy
Hong Kong Broad Market
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 22.49
Fair 112
Val. +1.4
1Y +10.0%
Hong Kong Broad Market uses the China & Hong Kong Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
EWJ
direct
Japan Broad Market
Japan Equities
Last 98.17
Fair 103
Val. +0.9
1Y +7.0%
Japan Broad Market is the representative benchmark for the asset-class valuation model.
EWJV
proxy
Japan Value Equity
Japan Equities
Last 47.88
Fair 103
Val. +0.9
1Y +7.0%
Japan Value Equity uses the Japan Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
EWL
proxy
Switzerland Index
Europe Equities
Last 62.92
Fair 104
Val. +0.9
1Y +7.0%
Switzerland Index uses the Europe Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
EWQ
proxy
France Index
Europe Equities
Last 47.14
Fair 104
Val. +0.9
1Y +7.0%
France Index uses the Europe Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
EWS
proxy
Singapore Broad Market
Developed Pacific Equities
Last 33.92
Fair 99
Val. -0.7
1Y +5.5%
Singapore Broad Market uses the Developed Pacific Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
EWT
proxy
Taiwan Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 107.80
Fair 106
Val. +0.9
1Y +8.0%
Taiwan Index uses the Emerging Markets Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
EWU
proxy
United Kingdom Index
Europe Equities
Last 48.16
Fair 104
Val. +0.9
1Y +7.0%
United Kingdom Index uses the Europe Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
EWY
proxy
South Korea Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 185.10
Fair 106
Val. +0.9
1Y +8.0%
South Korea Index uses the Emerging Markets Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
EWZ
proxy
Brazil Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 33.97
Fair 106
Val. +0.9
1Y +8.0%
Brazil Index uses the Emerging Markets Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
EZA
proxy
South Africa Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 68.19
Fair 106
Val. +0.9
1Y +8.0%
South Africa Index uses the Emerging Markets Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
EZU
proxy
Eurozone Equity Index
Europe Equities
Last 71.88
Fair 104
Val. +0.9
1Y +7.0%
Eurozone Equity Index uses the Europe Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
FXI
proxy
China Large-Cap
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 35.10
Fair 112
Val. +1.4
1Y +10.0%
China Large-Cap uses the China & Hong Kong Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
GDX
proxy
Gold Miners
Metals
Last 91.89
Fair 100
Val. -0.1
1Y +5.0%
Gold Miners uses the Metals asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
GLD
direct
Gold
Metals
Last 405.49
Fair 100
Val. -0.1
1Y +5.0%
Gold is the representative benchmark for the asset-class valuation model.
HYG
proxy
High-Yield Corporate Bonds
Fixed Income
Last 79.61
Fair 101
Val. +0.4
1Y +5.0%
High-Yield Corporate Bonds uses the Fixed Income asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
IEF
proxy
Intermediate US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 92.84
Fair 101
Val. +0.4
1Y +5.0%
Intermediate US Treasuries uses the Fixed Income asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
INDA
proxy
India Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 49.58
Fair 106
Val. +0.9
1Y +8.0%
India Index uses the Emerging Markets Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
IWM
proxy
US Small-Cap Index
US Equities
Last 304.06
Fair 96
Val. -1.6
1Y +5.5%
US Small-Cap Index uses the US Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
JPXN
proxy
Japan JPX-Nikkei 400
Japan Equities
Last 104.75
Fair 103
Val. +0.9
1Y +7.0%
Japan JPX-Nikkei 400 uses the Japan Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
KWEB
proxy
China Internet Sector
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 26.95
Fair 112
Val. +1.4
1Y +10.0%
China Internet Sector uses the China & Hong Kong Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
LQD
proxy
Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds
Fixed Income
Last 105.70
Fair 101
Val. +0.4
1Y +5.0%
Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds uses the Fixed Income asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
MCHI
direct
China Broad Market
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 55.06
Fair 112
Val. +1.4
1Y +10.0%
China Broad Market is the representative benchmark for the asset-class valuation model.
PICK
proxy
Global Metals and Mining
Metals
Last 63.05
Fair 100
Val. -0.1
1Y +5.0%
Global Metals and Mining uses the Metals asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
PPLT
proxy
Platinum
Metals
Last 16.07
Fair 100
Val. -0.1
1Y +5.0%
Platinum uses the Metals asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
QQQ
proxy
US Technology Index
US Equities
Last 729.87
Fair 96
Val. -1.6
1Y +5.5%
US Technology Index uses the US Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
REET
proxy
Global Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 27.97
Fair 99
Val. -0.7
1Y +6.0%
Global Real Estate uses the Real Estate asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
REM
proxy
Mortgage Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 22.05
Fair 99
Val. -0.7
1Y +6.0%
Mortgage Real Estate uses the Real Estate asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
REZ
proxy
Residential and Specialized REITs
Real Estate
Last 94.59
Fair 99
Val. -0.7
1Y +6.0%
Residential and Specialized REITs uses the Real Estate asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
RSP
proxy
US Equal-Weight Index
US Equities
Last 220.79
Fair 96
Val. -1.6
1Y +5.5%
US Equal-Weight Index uses the US Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
SCJ
proxy
Japan Small-Cap Equity
Japan Equities
Last 110.10
Fair 103
Val. +0.9
1Y +7.0%
Japan Small-Cap Equity uses the Japan Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
SHY
proxy
Short-Term US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 82.00
Fair 101
Val. +0.4
1Y +5.0%
Short-Term US Treasuries uses the Fixed Income asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
SLV
proxy
Silver
Metals
Last 59.57
Fair 100
Val. -0.1
1Y +5.0%
Silver uses the Metals asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
SMH
proxy
US Semiconductor Sector
US Equities
Last 594.07
Fair 96
Val. -1.6
1Y +5.5%
US Semiconductor Sector uses the US Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
SOL-USD
proxy
Solana
Crypto
Last 75.97
Fair 105
Val. +0.4
1Y +12.0%
Solana uses the Crypto asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
SPY
direct
US Large-Cap Index
US Equities
Last 772.67
Fair 96
Val. -1.6
1Y +5.5%
US Large-Cap Index is the representative benchmark for the asset-class valuation model.
SRVR
proxy
Data Center and Digital REITs
Real Estate
Last 32.31
Fair 99
Val. -0.7
1Y +6.0%
Data Center and Digital REITs uses the Real Estate asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
TIP
proxy
Inflation-Protected Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 106.77
Fair 101
Val. +0.4
1Y +5.0%
Inflation-Protected Treasuries uses the Fixed Income asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
TLT
proxy
Long-Term US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 81.35
Fair 101
Val. +0.4
1Y +5.0%
Long-Term US Treasuries uses the Fixed Income asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
UNG
proxy
Natural Gas
Energy
Last 9.830
Fair 96
Val. -0.7
1Y +4.0%
Natural Gas uses the Energy asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
USO
direct
US Crude Oil
Energy
Last 130.29
Fair 96
Val. -0.7
1Y +4.0%
US Crude Oil is the representative benchmark for the asset-class valuation model.
VGK
direct
Europe Broad Market
Europe Equities
Last 92.10
Fair 104
Val. +0.9
1Y +7.0%
Europe Broad Market is the representative benchmark for the asset-class valuation model.
VNQ
direct
US Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 97.98
Fair 99
Val. -0.7
1Y +6.0%
US Real Estate is the representative benchmark for the asset-class valuation model.
VWO
direct
Emerging Markets Broad Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 60.39
Fair 106
Val. +0.9
1Y +8.0%
Emerging Markets Broad Index is the representative benchmark for the asset-class valuation model.
XLE
proxy
US Energy Sector
Energy
Last 62.58
Fair 96
Val. -0.7
1Y +4.0%
US Energy Sector uses the Energy asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
XLF
proxy
US Financial Sector
US Equities
Last 57.58
Fair 96
Val. -1.6
1Y +5.5%
US Financial Sector uses the US Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
XLI
proxy
US Industrial Sector
US Equities
Last 186.32
Fair 96
Val. -1.6
1Y +5.5%
US Industrial Sector uses the US Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
XLRE
proxy
US Real Estate Sector
Real Estate
Last 44.83
Fair 99
Val. -0.7
1Y +6.0%
US Real Estate Sector uses the Real Estate asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
XLV
proxy
US Healthcare Sector
US Equities
Last 167.05
Fair 96
Val. -1.6
1Y +5.5%
US Healthcare Sector uses the US Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
XLY
proxy
US Consumer Discretionary Sector
US Equities
Last 116.75
Fair 96
Val. -1.6
1Y +5.5%
US Consumer Discretionary Sector uses the US Equities asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
XOP
proxy
Oil and Gas Producers
Energy
Last 183.35
Fair 96
Val. -0.7
1Y +4.0%
Oil and Gas Producers uses the Energy asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
XRP-USD
proxy
XRP
Crypto
Last 1.003
Fair 105
Val. +0.4
1Y +12.0%
XRP uses the Crypto asset-class valuation as a proxy; no independent symbol-level fair-value model is asserted.
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
China & Hong Kong Equities
MCHI · China Broad Market
VALUATION
+1.4
Cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 112
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 112
P25–P75 99–118
PRICE WHAT-IF · MCHI
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$61.67
Central P25–P75: $54.51–$64.97
Current: $55.06
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · MCHI
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+12.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+10.0%
P10–P90 -20% to +40%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+6.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
56%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
78%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Low broad-market earnings and book multiples provide a meaningful valuation cushion.
- Positive medium-term economic growth can support earnings normalization if weak domestic demand stabilizes.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Low multiples may reflect structurally weaker credit demand and investor risk premia rather than simple mispricing.
- The valuation range remains wide because policy, property, and geopolitical outcomes can alter justified multiples quickly.
MCHI P/E
13.7 x
As of Aug. 14, 2026
MCHI P/B
1.67 x
As of Aug. 14, 2026
MCHI trailing yield
1.97 %
As of Jul. 31, 2026
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Japan Equities
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
VALUATION
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 103
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 103
P25–P75 96–106
PRICE WHAT-IF · EWJ
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$101.12
Central P25–P75: $94.24–$104.06
Current: $98.17
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWJ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+3.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+7.0%
P10–P90 -15% to +28%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+3.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
57%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
81%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Dividend yield and broad profitability support the current valuation anchor.
- A diversified corporate base and improving capital discipline support moderate justified multiples.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- The broad-market multiple is no longer obviously cheap after strong repricing.
- Slower domestic growth and higher Japanese policy rates can cap further multiple expansion.
EWJ P/E
19.7 x
As of Aug. 14, 2026
EWJ P/B
2.10 x
As of Aug. 14, 2026
EWJ trailing yield
3.80 %
As of Jul. 31, 2026
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Europe Equities
VGK · Europe Broad Market
VALUATION
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 104
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 104
P25–P75 96–109
PRICE WHAT-IF · VGK
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$95.78
Central P25–P75: $88.42–$100.39
Current: $92.10
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VGK
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+4.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+7.0%
P10–P90 -15% to +27%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+3.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
62%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
80%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- A mid-to-high teens valuation multiple is moderate relative to U.S. equities.
- Double-digit portfolio earnings growth supports a modestly positive fair-value gap.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Subdued euro-area growth limits the case for aggressive multiple expansion.
- The U.S.-dollar investor must still absorb currency and geopolitical risk.
VGK P/E
18.0 x
Vanguard portfolio characteristic
VGK earnings growth
10.2 %
Vanguard portfolio characteristic
Euro area 2026 GDP growth forecast
0.80 %
Vanguard July 2026 outlook
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Emerging Markets Equities
VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
VALUATION
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 106
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 106
P25–P75 94–112
PRICE WHAT-IF · VWO
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$64.01
Central P25–P75: $56.77–$67.64
Current: $60.39
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VWO
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+6.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+8.0%
P10–P90 -22% to +35%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+4.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
64%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
75%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Mid-teens portfolio earnings growth supports a modest fair-value premium to the current market.
- Valuation remains below U.S. large-cap levels, leaving more room for growth to translate into value.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Country dispersion is unusually high, with parts of Asia trading at much richer valuations after large earnings and price gains.
- Currency and sovereign-risk premia remain material and are not captured by a single broad P/E ratio.
VWO P/E
16.4 x
Vanguard portfolio characteristic
VWO earnings growth
14.6 %
Vanguard portfolio characteristic
VWO P/B
2.50 x
Vanguard portfolio characteristic
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Fixed Income
BND · US Broad Bond Market
VALUATION
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 101
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 101
P25–P75 97–103
PRICE WHAT-IF · BND
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$72.88
Central P25–P75: $70.00–$74.32
Current: $72.16
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BND
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+1.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+5.0%
P10–P90 -4% to +11%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+1.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
65%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
90%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Starting yield is close to the 10-year Treasury yield and above the one-year Treasury hurdle.
- Intermediate duration provides upside if justified yields fall without requiring large spread compression.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Credit spreads are tight, leaving limited room for further valuation benefit from spread compression.
- Duration creates mark-to-market downside if long yields rise materially from current levels.
BND 30-day SEC yield
4.67 %
As of Aug. 13, 2026
BND average duration
5.70 years
Vanguard portfolio characteristic
10Y Treasury yield
4.68 %
Current nominal-rate anchor
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Crypto
BTC-USD · Bitcoin
VALUATION
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 105
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 105
P25–P75 72–125
PRICE WHAT-IF · BTC-USD
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$67,541.26
Central P25–P75: $46,314.01–$80,406.26
Current: $64,325.01
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BTC-USD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+5.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+12.0%
P10–P90 -55% to +95%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+8.0%
Treasury 4.0%
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION
—
Insufficient decision-grade history
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
56%
moderate
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Scarce supply, ongoing institutional infrastructure, and on-chain adoption remain defensible long-term value anchors.
- Current price is well below the prior year's high, but that price path itself is not used as valuation evidence.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Bitcoin has no contractual cash-flow anchor, so fair-value dispersion is much wider than for bonds or equities.
- Fidelity notes that bitcoin's historical relationship with broad liquidity has recently weakened, reducing confidence in macro-only valuation anchors.
Bitcoin current price
64325.0 USD
Structured current market anchor
Broad M2 growth
5.53 % YoY
Structured liquidity context
1Y U.S. Treasury hurdle
3.98 %
Current external hurdle
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Metals
GLD · Gold
VALUATION
-0.1
Fair
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 100
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 100
P25–P75 90–106
PRICE WHAT-IF · GLD
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$405.49
Central P25–P75: $364.94–$429.82
Current: $405.49
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · GLD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
0.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+5.0%
P10–P90 -18% to +28%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+1.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
66%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
65%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Investment demand is expected to lead gold demand growth through the rest of 2026.
- Central banks remain significant buyers, supporting a structural non-yield valuation anchor.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- High positive real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals.
- High prices can suppress jewellery demand and induce some recycling or supply response.
Q2 total gold demand
1269.0 tonnes
Including OTC; unchanged y/y
H1 total gold demand
2522.0 tonnes
+2% y/y
10Y real Treasury yield
2.41 %
Current real-rate anchor
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Developed Pacific Equities
EWA · Australia Broad Market
VALUATION
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 99
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 99
P25–P75 93–102
PRICE WHAT-IF · EWA
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$29.25
Central P25–P75: $27.48–$30.14
Current: $29.55
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWA
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-1.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+5.5%
P10–P90 -16% to +25%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+1.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
63%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
78%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Singapore's income profile and diversified regional exposure support the central value estimate.
- Healthy developed-market balance sheets provide a steadier valuation anchor than more leveraged emerging exposures.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Australia, the representative benchmark, trades at a relatively full earnings multiple.
- Commodity sensitivity and differing local rate regimes create material dispersion across the regional basket.
EWA P/E
22.1 x
As of Aug. 14, 2026
EWA trailing yield
2.89 %
As of Jul. 31, 2026
EWS P/E
19.3 x
As of Aug. 14, 2026
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Energy
USO · US Crude Oil
VALUATION
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 96
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 96
P25–P75 82–103
PRICE WHAT-IF · USO
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$125.08
Central P25–P75: $106.84–$134.20
Current: $130.29
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · USO
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-4.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+4.0%
P10–P90 -28% to +38%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
0.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
44%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
72%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Hormuz disruptions keep near-term crude balances tighter than previously expected.
- Producer cash flows remain supported while spot prices stay near current elevated levels.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- EIA's central path has Brent below the current spot price later in 2026 as traffic and production recover.
- Commodity fair value is highly sensitive to geopolitical supply assumptions, so the modeled range is intentionally wide.
WTI spot price
84.0 USD/bbl
Aug. 14, 2026 close
Brent spot price
92.0 USD/bbl
Aug. 14, 2026 close
EIA 3Q26 Brent forecast
85.0 USD/bbl
August 2026 STEO
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Real Estate
VNQ · US Real Estate
VALUATION
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 99
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 99
P25–P75 92–103
PRICE WHAT-IF · VNQ
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$97.00
Central P25–P75: $90.14–$100.92
Current: $97.98
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VNQ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-1.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+6.0%
P10–P90 -18% to +30%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+2.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
68%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
68%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- REIT operating earnings continue to grow and public-market dividend income remains meaningful.
- Property-sector diversification provides multiple cash-flow anchors rather than one single economic driver.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Current REIT dividend yields remain below the 10-year Treasury yield, limiting the yield-spread cushion.
- A complete current P/FFO and NAV-discount dataset was not available across the whole supplied universe, reducing model confidence.
VNQ dividend yield
3.37 %
As of Jun. 30, 2026
VNQ earnings growth
6.77 %
Vanguard portfolio characteristic
Equity REIT YTD dividend yield
3.70 %
Nareit mid-2026 data
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
US Equities
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
VALUATION
-1.6
Expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 96
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 96
P25–P75 89–99
PRICE WHAT-IF · SPY
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$741.76
Central P25–P75: $687.68–$764.94
Current: $772.67
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · SPY
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-4.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+5.5%
P10–P90 -17% to +25%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+1.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
80%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
81%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Exceptional near-term earnings growth supports current economic output.
- Forward P/E is close to its recent 5- and 10-year averages despite higher earnings expectations.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- CAPE remains near the extreme high end of long-run history.
- Positive real yields and a near-4% one-year Treasury hurdle constrain justified long-duration multiples.
Forward 12M P/E
19.6 x
5Y avg 19.9x; 10Y avg 19.0x
CY 2026 earnings growth
29.1 %
FactSet analyst estimate
Shiller CAPE
41.2 x
30Y percentile 95%; full-history percentile 99%
Valuation score
Where current market price (100) sits within the modeled fair-value distribution. Positive = cheaper; negative = more expensive.
Fair-value gap
Median modeled fair value relative to today’s price. It is not an expected return or a timing forecast.
1Y expected return
A separate forward return scenario distribution that can differ materially from the fair-value gap.
Expected edge vs Treasury
Modeled 1Y expected return minus the current 1Y Treasury benchmark. Positive values indicate modeled return above the benchmark.
Historical probability
When available, this is the calibrated share of comparable historical starting regimes that beat the contemporaneous 1Y Treasury benchmark. Long-run base rates are not substituted for it.
Valuation confidence
Evidence-strength score displayed as a percentage for readability. It is not a probability that the valuation is correct.
Sources & methodology references 16
Tier 1 · 99%
U.S. Energy Information Administration · 2026-08-12T00:00:00-04:00
Tier 2 · 90%
Fidelity Digital Assets · 2026-08-13T00:00:00-04:00