---
title: "Valuation Lens — August 17, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-08-17"
data_cutoff: "2026-08-17T17:09:00-04:00"
status: "intraday"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "2026-08-17_valuation-lens_170900-et"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-08-17/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — August 17, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Aug 17, 2026, 5:09 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 3.98% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**China leads value while U.S. equities remain expensive**

The preferred one-year Treasury hurdle is 3.98%, while the 10-year nominal yield is 4.68% and the 10-year real yield is 2.41%.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +1.4 | Cheap | 112.0 | 99.0–118.0 | +12.0% | +10.0% | +6.0% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +0.9 | Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | 96.0–106.0 | +3.0% | +7.0% | +3.0% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +0.9 | Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | 96.0–109.0 | +4.0% | +7.0% | +3.0% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +0.9 | Somewhat cheap | 106.0 | 94.0–112.0 | +6.0% | +8.0% | +4.0% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.4 | Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | 97.0–103.0 | +1.0% | +5.0% | +1.0% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.4 | Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | 72.0–125.0 | +5.0% | +12.0% | +8.0% |
| Metals | GLD | -0.1 | Fair | 100.0 | 90.0–106.0 | 0.0% | +5.0% | +1.0% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -0.7 | Somewhat expensive | 99.0 | 93.0–102.0 | -1.0% | +5.5% | +1.5% |
| Energy | USO | -0.7 | Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | 82.0–103.0 | -4.0% | +4.0% | 0.0% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.7 | Somewhat expensive | 99.0 | 92.0–103.0 | -1.0% | +6.0% | +2.0% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.6 | Expensive | 96.0 | 89.0–99.0 | -4.0% | +5.5% | +1.5% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +1.4 (Cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 91.0, P25 99.0, median 112.0, P75 118.0, P90 134.0. The market price sits at the 27.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 59% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 56%.

### Japan Equities — +0.9 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 91.0, P25 96.0, median 103.0, P75 106.0, P90 116.0. The market price sits at the 35.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 56% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 57%.

### Europe Equities — +0.9 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 91.0, P25 96.0, median 104.0, P75 109.0, P90 122.0. The market price sits at the 35.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 57% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +0.9 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.0, P25 94.0, median 106.0, P75 112.0, P90 131.0. The market price sits at the 35.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 56% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 64%.

### Fixed Income — +0.4 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 94.0, P25 97.0, median 101.0, P75 103.0, P90 109.0. The market price sits at the 43.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -4.0% to P90 +11.0%. Scenario distribution combining economic-output/carry assumptions with partial valuation convergence; not a price target.

**Probability note:** the 59% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 65%.

### Crypto — +0.4 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 58.0, P25 72.0, median 105.0, P75 125.0, P90 180.0. The market price sits at the 43.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +12.0%, P10 -55.0% to P90 +95.0%. Scenario distribution combining economic-output/carry assumptions with partial valuation convergence; not a price target.

### Metals — -0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.0, P25 90.0, median 100.0, P75 106.0, P90 122.0. The market price sits at the 52.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -18.0% to P90 +28.0%. Scenario distribution combining economic-output/carry assumptions with partial valuation convergence; not a price target.

**Probability note:** the 52% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 66%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -0.7 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.0, P25 93.0, median 99.0, P75 102.0, P90 111.0. The market price sits at the 61.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 53% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 63%.

### Energy — -0.7 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 75.0, P25 82.0, median 96.0, P75 103.0, P90 121.0. The market price sits at the 61.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.0%, P10 -28.0% to P90 +38.0%. Scenario distribution combining economic-output/carry assumptions with partial valuation convergence; not a price target.

**Probability note:** the 50% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Real Estate — -0.7 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.0, P25 92.0, median 99.0, P75 103.0, P90 115.0. The market price sits at the 61.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 54% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 68%.

### US Equities — -1.6 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.0, P25 89.0, median 96.0, P75 99.0, P90 108.0. The market price sits at the 77.0th percentile of that distribution.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: July 31, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-july-31-2026
2. iShares MSCI China ETF | MCHI — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239619/ishares-msci-china-etf
3. iShares MSCI Japan ETF | EWJ — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239665/ishares-msci-japan-etf
4. iShares MSCI Australia ETF | EWA — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239607/ishares-msci-australia-etf
5. iShares MSCI Singapore ETF | EWS — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239678/ishares-msci-singapore-capped-etf
6. Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF | VWO — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vwo/vanguard-ftse-emerging-markets-etf
7. Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF | VGK — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vgk/vanguard-ftse-europe-etf
8. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | BND — Vanguard — https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/bnd
9. Vanguard Real Estate ETF | VNQ — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vnq/vanguard-real-estate-etf
10. Quarterly REIT Performance Data — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/quarterly-reit-performance-data
11. Short-Term Energy Outlook — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
12. Today in Energy Daily Prices — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php
13. Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026
14. Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 — Outlook — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026/outlook
15. Is the Macro Case for Bitcoin Unraveling? — Fidelity Digital Assets — https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/research-and-insights/macro-case-bitcoin-unraveling
16. Advanced Research and Analytical Metrics — Coin Metrics — https://coinmetrics.io/company-news/advanced-research-and-analytical-metrics/
17. Market perspectives — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/insights/article/series/market-perspectives

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.