---
title: "Valuation Lens — August 15, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-08-15"
data_cutoff: "2026-08-15T22:36:38-04:00"
status: "intraday"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "2026-08-15_valuation-lens_223638-et"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-08-15/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — August 15, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Aug 15, 2026, 10:36 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 3.97% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**China and REITs show discounts while Australia and U.S. equities look rich**

The 1-year Treasury investment-basis yield is 3.97%, with the 10-year at 4.63% and the 10-year real yield at 2.39%.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +1.7 | Cheap | 112.5 | 101.6–122.8 | +12.5% | +11.2% | +7.2% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | +1.2 | Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | 98.0–117.7 | +8.0% | +9.4% | +5.4% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +0.5 | Somewhat cheap | 102.8 | 93.3–112.5 | +2.8% | +7.8% | +3.8% |
| Fixed Income | IEF | +0.3 | Fair | 100.5 | 98.2–102.9 | +0.5% | +4.9% | +0.9% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | 0.0 | Fair | 100.0 | 93.2–106.8 | 0.0% | +7.0% | +3.0% |
| Metals | GLD | 0.0 | Fair | 100.0 | 89.9–112.4 | 0.0% | +2.1% | -1.9% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | -0.1 | Fair | 99.6 | 81.5–122.8 | -0.4% | +5.0% | +1.0% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -0.3 | Fair | 98.1 | 91.4–104.9 | -1.9% | +6.0% | +2.0% |
| Energy | USO | -1.0 | Somewhat expensive | 89.2 | 73.8–104.7 | -10.8% | -1.7% | -5.7% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.6 | Expensive | 93.2 | 86.9–99.7 | -6.8% | +5.3% | +1.3% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.8 | Expensive | 90.6 | 83.7–97.8 | -9.4% | +3.7% | -0.3% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +1.7 (Cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 92.6, P25 101.6, median 112.5, P75 122.8, P90 131.8. The market price sits at the 21.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +11.2%, P10 -4.8% to P90 +27.2%. Scenario model combining sustainable economic carry/growth with partial valuation convergence and explicit adverse/base/favorable fundamental states; not a calibrated probability model.

**Probability note:** the 77% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 56%.

### Real Estate — +1.2 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 88.8, P25 98.0, median 108.0, P75 117.7, P90 126.3. The market price sits at the 29.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.4%, P10 -4.6% to P90 +23.4%. Scenario model combining sustainable economic carry/growth with partial valuation convergence and explicit adverse/base/favorable fundamental states; not a calibrated probability model.

**Probability note:** the 73% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 68%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +0.5 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.9, P25 93.3, median 102.8, P75 112.5, P90 121.8. The market price sits at the 41.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.8%, P10 -8.2% to P90 +23.8%. Scenario model combining sustainable economic carry/growth with partial valuation convergence and explicit adverse/base/favorable fundamental states; not a calibrated probability model.

**Probability note:** the 70% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 64%.

### Fixed Income — +0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: IEF (Intermediate US Treasuries)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 96.1, P25 98.2, median 100.5, P75 102.9, P90 104.9. The market price sits at the 44.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.9%, P10 -0.1% to P90 +9.9%. Scenario model combining sustainable economic carry/growth with partial valuation convergence and explicit adverse/base/favorable fundamental states; not a calibrated probability model.

**Probability note:** the 67% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 65%.

### Japan Equities — 0.0 (Fair)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 86.7, P25 93.2, median 100.0, P75 106.8, P90 113.0. The market price sits at the 50.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -5.0% to P90 +19.0%. Scenario model combining sustainable economic carry/growth with partial valuation convergence and explicit adverse/base/favorable fundamental states; not a calibrated probability model.

**Probability note:** the 73% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 57%.

### Metals — 0.0 (Fair)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 80.1, P25 89.9, median 100.0, P75 112.4, P90 123.5. The market price sits at the 50.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.1%, P10 -16.0% to P90 +20.5%. Scenario model combining sustainable economic carry/growth with partial valuation convergence and explicit adverse/base/favorable fundamental states; not a calibrated probability model.

**Probability note:** the 43% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 66%.

### Crypto — -0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 65.8, P25 81.5, median 99.6, P75 122.8, P90 147.1. The market price sits at the 51.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -35.1% to P90 +46.3%. Scenario model combining sustainable economic carry/growth with partial valuation convergence and explicit adverse/base/favorable fundamental states; not a calibrated probability model.

### Europe Equities — -0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.0, P25 91.4, median 98.1, P75 104.9, P90 111.9. The market price sits at the 55.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -7.0% to P90 +19.0%. Scenario model combining sustainable economic carry/growth with partial valuation convergence and explicit adverse/base/favorable fundamental states; not a calibrated probability model.

**Probability note:** the 68% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### Energy — -1.0 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 63.1, P25 73.8, median 89.2, P75 104.7, P90 122.8. The market price sits at the 66.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -1.7%, P10 -23.9% to P90 +22.3%. Scenario model combining sustainable economic carry/growth with partial valuation convergence and explicit adverse/base/favorable fundamental states; not a calibrated probability model.

**Probability note:** the 38% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### US Equities — -1.6 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.2, P25 86.9, median 93.2, P75 99.7, P90 105.0. The market price sits at the 76.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.3%, P10 -6.7% to P90 +17.3%. Scenario model combining sustainable economic carry/growth with partial valuation convergence and explicit adverse/base/favorable fundamental states; not a calibrated probability model.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.8 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 77.2, P25 83.7, median 90.6, P75 97.8, P90 104.3. The market price sits at the 80.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.7%, P10 -9.3% to P90 +16.7%. Scenario model combining sustainable economic carry/growth with partial valuation convergence and explicit adverse/base/favorable fundamental states; not a calibrated probability model.

**Probability note:** the 48% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 63%.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-august-7-2026
2. iShares MSCI China ETF | MCHI — iShares / BlackRock — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239619/ishares-msci-china-etf
3. iShares MSCI Japan ETF | EWJ — iShares / BlackRock — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239665/ishares-msci-japan-etf
4. iShares MSCI Australia ETF | EWA — iShares / BlackRock — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239607/ishares-msci-australia-etf
5. Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF | VWO — Vanguard — https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vwo
6. Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF | VGK — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vgk/vanguard-ftse-europe-etf
7. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | BND — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/bnd/vanguard-total-bond-market-etf
8. REITs Outperform as Divergence with Broad Equity Market Narrows — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/news/blog/market-commentary/reits-outperform-divergence-broad-equity-market-narrows
9. Valuing Real Estate Like It’s 2021: Private Appraisal Cap Rates Stuck at 2021 REIT Levels — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/news/blog/market-commentary/valuing-real-estate-its-2021-private-appraisal-cap-rates-stuck-2021
10. Short-Term Energy Outlook — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
11. Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 — Outlook — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026/outlook
12. Trigger Happy — Glassnode Research — https://research.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-32-2026/
13. Robert J. Shiller U.S. Stock Markets 1871-Present — Robert J. Shiller — https://shillerdata.com/
14. Today in Energy Daily Prices — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.