---
title: "Valuation Lens — August 14, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-08-14"
data_cutoff: "2026-08-14T19:36:00-04:00"
status: "intraday"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "2026-08-14_valuation-lens_193600-et"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-08-14/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — August 14, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Aug 14, 2026, 7:36 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 3.97% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**China and emerging markets lead value; U.S. premiums persist**

The 1-year Treasury yield is the preferred current annual hurdle, with real yields remaining a material discount-rate input across valuation models.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +1.7 | Cheap | 114.8 | 101.4–123.3 | +14.8% | +13.0% | +9.0% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | EMXC | +1.7 | Cheap | 117.8 | 104.5–125.8 | +17.8% | +13.4% | +9.4% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +0.9 | Somewhat cheap | 103.2 | 97.3–108.8 | +3.2% | +8.6% | +4.6% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.7 | Somewhat cheap | 103.5 | 84.6–122.5 | +3.5% | +3.9% | -0.1% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +0.5 | Somewhat cheap | 101.9 | 96.5–108.1 | +1.8% | +8.3% | +4.3% |
| Metals | GLD | +0.5 | Somewhat cheap | 101.6 | 90.1–109.3 | +1.6% | +1.5% | -2.5% |
| Fixed Income | BND | 0.0 | Fair | 99.6 | 96.7–102.4 | -0.4% | +4.4% | +0.4% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -0.6 | Somewhat expensive | 97.2 | 91.3–102.8 | -2.8% | +7.5% | +3.5% |
| Energy | USO | -0.8 | Somewhat expensive | 93.8 | 84.5–101.6 | -6.2% | -3.2% | -7.2% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -1.0 | Somewhat expensive | 94.5 | 87.6–101.9 | -5.5% | +6.0% | +2.0% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.7 | Expensive | 92.6 | 85.6–98.5 | -7.4% | +7.2% | +3.2% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +1.7 (Cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 86.7, P25 101.4, median 114.8, P75 123.3, P90 130.9. The market price sits at the 21.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +13.0%, P10 -10.5% to P90 +33.5%. Scenario blend of economic-output growth or carry, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty.

**Probability note:** the 75% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 56%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +1.7 (Cheap)

Benchmark: EMXC (Emerging Markets Ex-China)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 90.1, P25 104.5, median 117.8, P75 125.8, P90 132.9. The market price sits at the 21.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +13.4%, P10 -9.9% to P90 +33.8%. Scenario blend of economic-output growth or carry, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty.

**Probability note:** the 75% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 64%.

### Japan Equities — +0.9 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 92.4, P25 97.3, median 103.2, P75 108.8, P90 112.8. The market price sits at the 35.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.6%, P10 -6.6% to P90 +23.4%. Scenario blend of economic-output growth or carry, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty.

**Probability note:** the 74% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 57%.

### Crypto — +0.7 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 67.6, P25 84.6, median 103.5, P75 122.5, P90 139.9. The market price sits at the 38.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +3.9%, P10 -36.2% to P90 +44.4%. Scenario blend of economic-output growth or carry, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty.

### Europe Equities — +0.5 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 90.7, P25 96.5, median 101.9, P75 108.1, P90 112.4. The market price sits at the 41.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.3%, P10 -6.2% to P90 +22.5%. Scenario blend of economic-output growth or carry, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty.

**Probability note:** the 73% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### Metals — +0.5 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.6, P25 90.1, median 101.6, P75 109.3, P90 118.2. The market price sits at the 41.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +1.5%, P10 -18.6% to P90 +20.9%. Scenario blend of economic-output growth or carry, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty.

**Probability note:** the 39% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 66%.

### Fixed Income — 0.0 (Fair)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 96.0, P25 96.7, median 99.6, P75 102.4, P90 104.8. The market price sits at the 50.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.4%, P10 -1.0% to P90 +10.2%. Scenario blend of economic-output growth or carry, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty.

**Probability note:** the 61% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 65%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -0.6 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 86.4, P25 91.3, median 97.2, P75 102.8, P90 106.8. The market price sits at the 59.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -7.7% to P90 +22.3%. Scenario blend of economic-output growth or carry, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty.

**Probability note:** the 72% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 63%.

### Energy — -0.8 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 77.6, P25 84.5, median 93.8, P75 101.6, P90 110.3. The market price sits at the 63.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median -3.2%, P10 -28.1% to P90 +21.7%. Scenario blend of economic-output growth or carry, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty.

**Probability note:** the 29% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Real Estate — -1.0 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.0, P25 87.6, median 94.5, P75 101.9, P90 107.0. The market price sits at the 66.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -8.3% to P90 +20.9%. Scenario blend of economic-output growth or carry, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty.

**Probability note:** the 63% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 68%.

### US Equities — -1.7 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 77.4, P25 85.6, median 92.6, P75 98.5, P90 103.9. The market price sits at the 77.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.2%, P10 -6.9% to P90 +20.5%. Scenario blend of economic-output growth or carry, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific uncertainty.

## Sources

1. State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) — State Street Global Advisors — https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/state-street-spdr-sp-500-etf-trust-spy
2. MSCI China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/302400/msci-china-index
3. MSCI Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/939200/msci-japan-index
4. MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/991400/msci-pacific-ex-japan-index
5. MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/713021/msci-em-emerging-markets-ex-china-index
6. MSCI Europe Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990500/msci-europe-index
7. Vanguard Real Estate ETF — Portfolio Characteristics — Vanguard — https://fund-docs.vanguard.com/F0986.pdf
8. Vanguard Real Estate ETF — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vnq/vanguard-real-estate-etf?compositionTabBox=1
9. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/bnd/vanguard-total-bond-market-etf
10. Short-Term Energy Outlook — August 2026 — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
11. Energy Prices — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php
12. Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026
13. Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/central-bank-gold-reserves-survey-2026
14. The Week Onchain — Week 27, 2026 — Glassnode — https://research.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-27-2026/
15. The Week Onchain — Week 25, 2026 — Glassnode — https://research.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-25-2026/
16. Robert J. Shiller U.S. Stock Markets 1871-Present — Shiller Data — https://shillerdata.com/

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.