---
title: "Valuation Lens — August 13, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-08-13"
data_cutoff: "2026-08-13T20:11:00-04:00"
status: "intraday"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "2026-08-13_valuation-lens_201100-et"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-08-13/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — August 13, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Aug 13, 2026, 8:11 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.00% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**China and emerging markets lead value while U.S. equities remain expensive**

The preferred one-year Treasury hurdle is 4.0%, with a 2.42% real 10-year yield keeping discount-rate discipline important across long-duration assets.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +1.6 | Cheap | 113.0 | 101.2–125.8 | +13.0% | +15.0% | +11.0% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +1.4 | Cheap | 111.0 | 99.2–124.8 | +11.0% | +13.0% | +9.0% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +1.3 | Cheap | 107.0 | 99.1–115.9 | +7.0% | +10.0% | +6.0% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.8 | Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | 99.0–103.0 | +1.0% | +4.8% | +0.8% |
| Metals | GLD | +0.4 | Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | 94.1–111.9 | +2.0% | +5.0% | +1.0% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | +0.2 | Fair | 101.0 | 94.1–109.9 | +1.0% | +8.0% | +4.0% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | 0.0 | Fair | 100.0 | 95.1–106.9 | 0.0% | +9.0% | +5.0% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | 0.0 | Fair | 101.0 | 78.3–132.6 | +1.0% | +10.0% | +6.0% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -0.4 | Somewhat expensive | 98.0 | 93.1–104.9 | -2.0% | +7.0% | +3.0% |
| Energy | USO | -1.0 | Somewhat expensive | 94.0 | 88.1–102.9 | -6.0% | +1.0% | -3.0% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.6 | Expensive | 92.0 | 86.1–98.9 | -8.0% | +4.5% | +0.5% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +1.6 (Cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 90.4, P25 101.2, median 113.0, P75 125.8, P90 140.5. The market price sits at the 23.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +15.0%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +48.0%. Scenario return distribution anchored to current economic value, income/carry where applicable, and partial valuation convergence; not a long-run-average forecast.

**Probability note:** the 63% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 56%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +1.4 (Cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.4, P25 99.2, median 111.0, P75 124.8, P90 138.5. The market price sits at the 27.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +13.0%, P10 -22.0% to P90 +48.0%. Scenario return distribution anchored to current economic value, income/carry where applicable, and partial valuation convergence; not a long-run-average forecast.

**Probability note:** the 61% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 64%.

### Europe Equities — +1.3 (Cheap)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 90.3, P25 99.1, median 107.0, P75 115.9, P90 125.7. The market price sits at the 28.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +10.0%, P10 -17.0% to P90 +36.0%. Scenario return distribution anchored to current economic value, income/carry where applicable, and partial valuation convergence; not a long-run-average forecast.

**Probability note:** the 60% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### Fixed Income — +0.8 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 97.1, P25 99.0, median 101.0, P75 103.0, P90 104.9. The market price sits at the 37.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.8%, P10 -4.0% to P90 +12.0%. Scenario return distribution anchored to current economic value, income/carry where applicable, and partial valuation convergence; not a long-run-average forecast.

**Probability note:** the 55% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 65%.

### Metals — +0.4 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.2, P25 94.1, median 102.0, P75 111.9, P90 123.6. The market price sits at the 43.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +35.0%. Scenario return distribution anchored to current economic value, income/carry where applicable, and partial valuation convergence; not a long-run-average forecast.

**Probability note:** the 52% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 66%.

### Real Estate — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.2, P25 94.1, median 101.0, P75 109.9, P90 120.6. The market price sits at the 46.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.0%, P10 -18.0% to P90 +34.0%. Scenario return distribution anchored to current economic value, income/carry where applicable, and partial valuation convergence; not a long-run-average forecast.

**Probability note:** the 57% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 68%.

### Japan Equities — 0.0 (Fair)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 89.2, P25 95.1, median 100.0, P75 106.9, P90 114.7. The market price sits at the 50.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.0%, P10 -16.0% to P90 +35.0%. Scenario return distribution anchored to current economic value, income/carry where applicable, and partial valuation convergence; not a long-run-average forecast.

**Probability note:** the 59% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 57%.

### Crypto — 0.0 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 61.6, P25 78.3, median 101.0, P75 132.6, P90 169.8. The market price sits at the 49.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +10.0%, P10 -48.0% to P90 +85.0%. Scenario return distribution anchored to current economic value, income/carry where applicable, and partial valuation convergence; not a long-run-average forecast.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -0.4 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.2, P25 93.1, median 98.0, P75 104.9, P90 111.8. The market price sits at the 56.8th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -16.0% to P90 +30.0%. Scenario return distribution anchored to current economic value, income/carry where applicable, and partial valuation convergence; not a long-run-average forecast.

**Probability note:** the 56% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 63%.

### Energy — -1.0 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.2, P25 88.1, median 94.0, P75 102.9, P90 114.6. The market price sits at the 66.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +1.0%, P10 -28.0% to P90 +35.0%. Scenario return distribution anchored to current economic value, income/carry where applicable, and partial valuation convergence; not a long-run-average forecast.

**Probability note:** the 46% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### US Equities — -1.6 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 80.2, P25 86.1, median 92.0, P75 98.9, P90 105.8. The market price sits at the 76.5th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.5%, P10 -18.0% to P90 +26.0%. Scenario return distribution anchored to current economic value, income/carry where applicable, and partial valuation convergence; not a long-run-average forecast.

**Probability note:** the 51% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 80%.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-august-7-2026
2. MSCI China Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/302400/msci-china-index
3. MSCI Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/939200/msci-japan-index
4. MSCI Australia Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/903600/msci-australia-index
5. MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/991400/msci-pacific-ex-japan-index
6. MSCI Europe Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/990500/msci-europe-index
7. MSCI Emerging Markets Index — MSCI — https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/891800/msci-em-emerging-markets-index-2
8. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/bnd/vanguard-total-bond-market-etf
9. Green Street Commercial Property Price Index — Green Street — https://www.greenstreet.com/resources/pricing-index/
10. REIT Industry Financial Snapshot — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/reit-industry-financial-snapshot
11. Short-Term Energy Outlook — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
12. United States on track for record natural gas production in 2026 — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67944
13. Gold Market Commentary: Making waves — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-market-commentary-july-2026
14. Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026: Outlook — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026/outlook
15. BTC MVRV Z-Score — Glassnode — https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/market.MvrvZScore?a=BTC
16. BTC Realized Price — Glassnode — https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/market.PriceRealizedUsd?a=BTC
17. BTC Median Realized Price — Glassnode — https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/market.PriceRealizedMedianUsd?a=BTC
18. BTC Short-Term Holder Realized Price — Glassnode — https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/market.PriceRealizedLess155Usd?a=BTC

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.