---
title: "Valuation Lens — August 12, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-08-12"
data_cutoff: "2026-08-12T23:59:59-04:00"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "2026-08-12_valuation-lens_055907-utc"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-08-12/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — August 12, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Aug 12, 2026, 11:59 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.03% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**China screens cheaper while U.S. and emerging-market equities remain expensive**

The preferred one-year hurdle is the 4.03% investment-basis Treasury yield, with positive real yields keeping discount-rate discipline important.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +1.9 | Cheap | 112.0 | 103.4–118.6 | +12.0% | +8.0% | +4.0% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | +1.1 | Somewhat cheap | 107.1 | 99.0–112.8 | +7.1% | +6.5% | +2.5% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +0.9 | Somewhat cheap | 104.5 | 98.0–109.4 | +4.5% | +7.0% | +3.0% |
| Fixed Income | BND | +0.3 | Fair | 100.9 | 98.9–102.4 | +0.9% | +4.9% | +0.9% |
| Metals | GLD | +0.2 | Fair | 101.8 | 92.3–111.1 | +1.8% | +5.0% | +1.0% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.2 | Fair | 106.4 | 86.0–126.4 | +6.4% | +11.0% | +7.0% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -0.1 | Fair | 100.0 | 94.0–105.1 | +0.0% | +5.5% | +1.5% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.2 | Somewhat expensive | 97.2 | 89.3–103.7 | -2.8% | +4.5% | +0.5% |
| Energy | USO | -1.4 | Expensive | 93.6 | 84.2–102.5 | -6.4% | +2.5% | -1.5% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | EMXC | -2.2 | Expensive | 86.9 | 81.0–94.9 | -13.1% | +4.0% | -0.0% |
| US Equities | SPY | -2.3 | Exceptionally expensive | 89.3 | 83.4–97.8 | -10.7% | +5.0% | +1.0% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +1.9 (Cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 94.9, P25 103.4, median 112.0, P75 118.6, P90 128.7. The market price sits at the 18.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 57% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 56%.

### Real Estate — +1.1 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 91.3, P25 99.0, median 107.1, P75 112.8, P90 122.4. The market price sits at the 31.4th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 55% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 68%.

### Japan Equities — +0.9 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 91.6, P25 98.0, median 104.5, P75 109.4, P90 116.6. The market price sits at the 35.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 57% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 57%.

### Fixed Income — +0.3 (Fair)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 97.1, P25 98.9, median 100.9, P75 102.4, P90 104.8. The market price sits at the 44.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.9%, P10 -4.0% to P90 +11.0%. Starting yield/carry anchored to BND YTM, with duration and yield/spread-change scenarios; current Treasury curve and credit spreads constrain the distribution.

**Probability note:** the 56% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 65%.

### Metals — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.5, P25 92.3, median 101.8, P75 111.1, P90 122.9. The market price sits at the 46.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -24.0% to P90 +39.0%. Real-yield, official-sector demand, investment-demand and supply-response scenarios with wide commodity uncertainty.

**Probability note:** the 52% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 66%.

### Crypto — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 63.1, P25 86.0, median 106.4, P75 126.4, P90 157.5. The market price sits at the 46.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +11.0%, P10 -48.0% to P90 +82.0%. Wide on-chain cost-basis and network-economics scenarios; realized-price anchors inform value while liquidity and adoption uncertainty keep dispersion high.

### Europe Equities — -0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.3, P25 94.0, median 100.0, P75 105.1, P90 111.5. The market price sits at the 52.4th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 54% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.2 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 81.1, P25 89.3, median 97.2, P75 103.7, P90 113.1. The market price sits at the 70.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 51% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 63%.

### Energy — -1.4 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 73.0, P25 84.2, median 93.6, P75 102.5, P90 113.9. The market price sits at the 73.0th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.5%, P10 -30.0% to P90 +38.0%. Supply-demand and commodity-price scenarios anchored to EIA's near-term scarcity and normalization path; producer-equity economics are treated as secondary.

**Probability note:** the 48% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — -2.2 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EMXC (Emerging Markets Ex-China)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 73.3, P25 81.0, median 86.9, P75 94.9, P90 102.9. The market price sits at the 86.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 50% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 64%.

### US Equities — -2.3 (Exceptionally expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 78.4, P25 83.4, median 89.3, P75 97.8, P90 103.2. The market price sits at the 88.6th percentile of that distribution.

## Sources

1. Equity market outlook — BlackRock — https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/equity-market-outlook
2. Short-Term Energy Outlook: Global oil markets — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php
3. Trigger Happy — Glassnode — https://research.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-32-2026/
4. Values Increase 5% over the Past 12 Months — Green Street — https://www.greenstreet.com/values-increase-5-over-the-past-12-months/
5. iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF (EMXC) — iShares / BlackRock — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/288504/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-ex-china-etf
6. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) — iShares / BlackRock — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239607/ishares-msci-australia-etf
7. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) — iShares / BlackRock — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239665/ishares-msci-japan-etf
8. iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) — iShares / BlackRock — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239619/ishares-msci-china-etf
9. Nareit REIT Industry Tracker — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/nareit-reit-industry-tracker
10. Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision — Reserve Bank of Australia — https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-19.html
11. State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) — State Street Global Advisors — https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/state-street-spdr-sp-500-etf-trust-spy
12. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/bnd/vanguard-total-bond-market-etf
13. Our economic outlook for China — Vanguard — https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-china.html
14. Vanguard Capital Markets Model forecasts — Vanguard — https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-return-forecasts.html
15. Where to find value in the U.S. markets — Vanguard — https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/how-stock-bond-valuations-changed.html
16. Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vgk/vanguard-ftse-europe-etf
17. Central Banks - Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026/central-banks
18. Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.