---
title: "Valuation Lens — August 11, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-08-11"
data_cutoff: "2026-08-11T18:07:04-04:00"
status: "intraday"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "vl_20260811_180704-et"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-08-11/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — August 11, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Aug 11, 2026, 6:07 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.04% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**China leads relative value; energy and U.S. equities carry the clearest valuation premiums, while crypto’s discount has lower model confidence.**

The preferred one-year hurdle is 4.04% on DGS1, with positive real yields keeping discount-rate discipline important across risk assets.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +1.0 | Somewhat cheap | 110.0 | 97.0–127.0 | +10.0% | +9.5% | +5.5% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +0.7 | Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | 96.0–121.0 | +5.0% | +8.5% | +4.5% |
| Crypto | BTC-USD | +0.7 | Somewhat cheap | 112.0 | 88.0–152.0 | +12.0% | +14.0% | +10.0% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | +0.4 | Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | 96.0–117.0 | +3.0% | +7.5% | +3.5% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +0.1 | Fair | 101.0 | 95.0–115.0 | +1.0% | +7.0% | +3.0% |
| Metals | GLD | +0.1 | Fair | 101.0 | 91.0–126.0 | +1.0% | +6.0% | +2.0% |
| Fixed Income | BND | -0.1 | Fair | 100.0 | 98.0–103.0 | 0.0% | +4.7% | +0.7% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -0.4 | Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | 92.0–112.0 | -3.0% | +6.5% | +2.5% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -1.0 | Somewhat expensive | 94.0 | 87.0–105.0 | -6.0% | +5.5% | +1.5% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.3 | Expensive | 95.0 | 90.0–102.0 | -5.0% | +6.0% | +2.0% |
| Energy | USO | -1.6 | Expensive | 89.0 | 78.0–100.0 | -11.0% | +2.5% | -1.5% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +1.0 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 85.0, P25 97.0, median 110.0, P75 127.0, P90 145.0. The market price sits at the 33.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +9.5%, P10 -10.0% to P90 +30.0%. Modeled total-return scenario ensemble combining sustainable growth or carry with partial valuation convergence; no recent-price momentum is used.

**Probability note:** the 67% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 56%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +0.7 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 84.0, P25 96.0, median 105.0, P75 121.0, P90 139.0. The market price sits at the 38.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +8.5%, P10 -8.0% to P90 +26.0%. Modeled total-return scenario ensemble combining sustainable growth or carry with partial valuation convergence; no recent-price momentum is used.

**Probability note:** the 67% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 64%.

### Crypto — +0.7 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: BTC-USD (Bitcoin)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 66.0, P25 88.0, median 112.0, P75 152.0, P90 190.0. The market price sits at the 38.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +14.0%, P10 -30.0% to P90 +105.0%. Modeled total-return scenario ensemble combining sustainable growth or carry with partial valuation convergence; no recent-price momentum is used.

### Europe Equities — +0.4 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.0, P25 96.0, median 103.0, P75 117.0, P90 132.0. The market price sits at the 42.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.5%, P10 -6.0% to P90 +21.0%. Modeled total-return scenario ensemble combining sustainable growth or carry with partial valuation convergence; no recent-price momentum is used.

**Probability note:** the 67% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### Japan Equities — +0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 87.0, P25 95.0, median 101.0, P75 115.0, P90 130.0. The market price sits at the 47.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -5.0% to P90 +18.0%. Modeled total-return scenario ensemble combining sustainable growth or carry with partial valuation convergence; no recent-price momentum is used.

**Probability note:** the 67% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 57%.

### Metals — +0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 76.0, P25 91.0, median 101.0, P75 126.0, P90 156.0. The market price sits at the 47.6th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -10.0% to P90 +28.0%. Modeled total-return scenario ensemble combining sustainable growth or carry with partial valuation convergence; no recent-price momentum is used.

**Probability note:** the 62% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 66%.

### Fixed Income — -0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 95.0, P25 98.0, median 100.0, P75 103.0, P90 106.0. The market price sits at the 52.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.7%, P10 -1.0% to P90 +8.5%. Modeled total-return scenario ensemble combining sustainable growth or carry with partial valuation convergence; no recent-price momentum is used.

**Probability note:** the 62% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 65%.

### Real Estate — -0.4 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.0, P25 92.0, median 97.0, P75 112.0, P90 130.0. The market price sits at the 57.1th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.5%, P10 -7.0% to P90 +21.0%. Modeled total-return scenario ensemble combining sustainable growth or carry with partial valuation convergence; no recent-price momentum is used.

**Probability note:** the 67% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 68%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -1.0 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 77.0, P25 87.0, median 94.0, P75 105.0, P90 117.0. The market price sits at the 66.7th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.5%, P10 -7.0% to P90 +15.0%. Modeled total-return scenario ensemble combining sustainable growth or carry with partial valuation convergence; no recent-price momentum is used.

**Probability note:** the 57% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 63%.

### US Equities — -1.3 (Expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.0, P25 90.0, median 95.0, P75 102.0, P90 110.0. The market price sits at the 71.4th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +6.0%, P10 -8.0% to P90 +16.0%. Modeled total-return scenario ensemble combining sustainable growth or carry with partial valuation convergence; no recent-price momentum is used.

### Energy — -1.6 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 66.0, P25 78.0, median 89.0, P75 100.0, P90 115.0. The market price sits at the 76.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +2.5%, P10 -18.0% to P90 +25.0%. Modeled total-return scenario ensemble combining sustainable growth or carry with partial valuation convergence; no recent-price momentum is used.

**Probability note:** the 43% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

## Sources

1. S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026 — FactSet — https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-august-7-2026
2. U.S. Stock Markets 1871-Present — Robert J. Shiller / ShillerData — https://shillerdata.com/
3. iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239619/ishares-msci-china-etf
4. iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239665/ishares-msci-japan-etf
5. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) — BlackRock iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239607/ishares-msci-australia-etf
6. Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) — Vanguard — https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vwo
7. Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) — Vanguard — https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vgk
8. Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) — Vanguard — https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/bnd
9. Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) — Vanguard — https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vnq
10. EIA expects highest natural gas inventories in a decade heading into winter — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press591.php
11. Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026
12. A Market in Repair — Glassnode — https://research.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-24-2026/
13. 1-Year Treasury Rate (DGS1) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / FRED — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS1
14. 10-Year Treasury Rate (DGS10) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / FRED — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10
15. 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security, Constant Maturity (DFII10) — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / FRED — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10

---

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.