---
title: "Valuation Lens — August 10, 2026"
type: "valuation_lens"
date: "2026-08-10"
data_cutoff: "2026-08-10T21:37:00Z"
status: "final"
schema_version: "3.4.0"
methodology_version: "cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4"
run_id: "cxpw_valuation_20260810T213700Z"
canonical_url: "https://cxprowealth.com/valuation-lens-2026-08-10/"
publisher: "CXProWealth"
---

# Valuation Lens — August 10, 2026

> Valuation Lens answers "what is this worth?". Every fair-value figure is an INDEX where today's market price = 100. A median of 112.5 means the model's median fair value is 12.5% above the current price. Valuation scores run -3 to +3 where POSITIVE means cheap — the opposite convention to Market Lens scores. Modeled returns are scenario distributions under stated assumptions, not forecasts.

**Data cutoff:** Aug 10, 2026, 5:37 PM EDT  
**One-year Treasury hurdle:** 4.01% (TREASURY_1Y)  
**Methodology:** cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4

## Overall

**China and emerging-market equities lead on value; developed Pacific and energy are most expensive, while fixed income sits near fair value.**

The preferred one-year hurdle is the 4.01% DGS1 investment-basis Treasury yield, while high 5Y/10Y real yields raise discount-rate pressure on long-duration assets.

## Asset classes, cheap to expensive

| Asset class | Benchmark | Score | Label | Median FV | P25–P75 | Upside to median | 1y modeled | vs Treasury |
| --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| China & Hong Kong Equities | MCHI | +1.7 | Cheap | 119.0 | 103.4–138.5 | +19.0% | +12.0% | +8.0% |
| Emerging Markets Equities | VWO | +1.1 | Somewhat cheap | 109.0 | 97.3–123.6 | +9.0% | +9.5% | +5.5% |
| Japan Equities | EWJ | +0.5 | Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | 93.2–113.7 | +3.0% | +7.5% | +3.5% |
| Metals | GLD | +0.4 | Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | 89.3–118.6 | +3.0% | +5.0% | +1.0% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | +0.2 | Fair | 102.0 | 91.3–114.7 | +2.0% | +7.0% | +3.0% |
| Fixed Income | BND | -0.1 | Fair | 100.0 | 97.1–102.9 | 0.0% | +4.7% | +0.7% |
| Crypto | ETH-USD | -0.1 | Fair | 100.0 | 70.7–143.9 | 0.0% | +7.0% | +3.0% |
| Europe Equities | VGK | -0.2 | Fair | 99.0 | 91.2–107.8 | -1.0% | +7.0% | +3.0% |
| US Equities | SPY | -1.2 | Somewhat expensive | 90.0 | 79.3–101.7 | -10.0% | +5.5% | +1.5% |
| Energy | USO | -1.5 | Expensive | 85.0 | 72.3–97.7 | -15.0% | -3.0% | -7.0% |
| Developed Pacific Equities | EWA | -2.0 | Expensive | 83.0 | 76.2–93.7 | -17.0% | +4.5% | +0.5% |

### China & Hong Kong Equities — +1.7 (Cheap)

Benchmark: MCHI (China Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 89.0, P25 103.4, median 119.0, P75 138.5, P90 158.6. The market price sits at the 22.0th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 61% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 56%.

### Emerging Markets Equities — +1.1 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: VWO (Emerging Markets Broad Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.0, P25 97.3, median 109.0, P75 123.6, P90 139.0. The market price sits at the 31.7th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 60% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 64%.

### Japan Equities — +0.5 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: EWJ (Japan Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.7, P25 93.2, median 103.0, P75 113.7, P90 125.2. The market price sits at the 41.5th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 59% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 57%.

### Metals — +0.4 (Somewhat cheap)

Benchmark: GLD (Gold)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 77.8, P25 89.3, median 103.0, P75 118.6, P90 135.8. The market price sits at the 43.9th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +5.0%, P10 -20.0% to P90 +29.0%. Valuation-aware total-return scenario distribution using sustainable economic growth/carry and partial valuation convergence; long-run returns used only as priors.

**Probability note:** the 52% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 66%.

### Real Estate — +0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: VNQ (US Real Estate)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 82.6, P25 91.3, median 102.0, P75 114.7, P90 128.1. The market price sits at the 46.3th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -16.0% to P90 +31.0%. Valuation-aware total-return scenario distribution using sustainable economic growth/carry and partial valuation convergence; long-run returns used only as priors.

**Probability note:** the 57% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 68%.

### Fixed Income — -0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: BND (US Broad Bond Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 94.2, P25 97.1, median 100.0, P75 102.9, P90 106.7. The market price sits at the 51.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +4.7%, P10 -3.0% to P90 +11.0%. Valuation-aware total-return scenario distribution using sustainable economic growth/carry and partial valuation convergence; long-run returns used only as priors.

**Probability note:** the 55% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 65%.

### Crypto — -0.1 (Fair)

Benchmark: ETH-USD (Ethereum)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 50.4, P25 70.7, median 100.0, P75 143.9, P90 187.1. The market price sits at the 51.2th percentile of that distribution.

**One-year modeled return:** median +7.0%, P10 -58.0% to P90 +88.0%. Valuation-aware total-return scenario distribution using sustainable economic growth/carry and partial valuation convergence; long-run returns used only as priors.

### Europe Equities — -0.2 (Fair)

Benchmark: VGK (Europe Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 83.5, P25 91.2, median 99.0, P75 107.8, P90 117.4. The market price sits at the 53.7th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 58% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 62%.

### US Equities — -1.2 (Somewhat expensive)

Benchmark: SPY (US Large-Cap Index)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 71.5, P25 79.3, median 90.0, P75 101.7, P90 113.2. The market price sits at the 70.7th percentile of that distribution.

### Energy — -1.5 (Expensive)

Benchmark: USO (US Crude Oil)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 62.7, P25 72.3, median 85.0, P75 97.7, P90 114.8. The market price sits at the 75.6th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 39% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 44%.

### Developed Pacific Equities — -2.0 (Expensive)

Benchmark: EWA (Australia Broad Market)

**Fair-value distribution** (market = 100): P10 68.5, P25 76.2, median 83.0, P75 93.7, P90 106.2. The market price sits at the 82.9th percentile of that distribution.

**Probability note:** the 51% chance of beating the Treasury hurdle is scenario-implied, NOT a calibrated probability. The unconditional historical base rate is 63%.

## Sources

1. SPY: State Street® SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust — State Street Global Advisors — https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/state-street-spdr-sp-500-etf-trust-spy
2. iShares MSCI China ETF | MCHI — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239619/ishares-msci-china-etf
3. China in the Year of the Horse: A stable trot or a brisk gallop — J.P. Morgan Private Bank — https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/apac/en/insights/markets-and-investing/asf/china-in-the-year-of-the-horse
4. iShares MSCI Japan ETF | EWJ — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239665/ishares-msci-japan-etf
5. Japanese Equities Offer Potential Opportunities — Goldman Sachs Asset Management — https://am.gs.com/en-us/advisors/insights/article/2026/japanese-equities-offer-potential-opportunities
6. iShares MSCI Australia ETF | EWA — BlackRock / iShares — https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239607/ishares-msci-australia-etf
7. What’s going on beneath the surface of Australian equities? — BetaShares — https://www.betashares.com.au/insights/whats-going-on-beneath-the-surface-of-australian-equities/
8. VWO — Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF — Vanguard — https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/etfs/profile/vwo
9. VGK — Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vgk/vanguard-ftse-europe-etf
10. Nareit REIT Industry Tracker — Nareit — https://www.reit.com/data-research/reit-market-data/report/nareit-reit-industry-tracker
11. BND — Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF — Vanguard — https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/bnd/vanguard-total-bond-market-etf
12. Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 — World Gold Council — https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-q2-2026
13. Short-Term Energy Outlook — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
14. USO | United States Oil Fund | The Original Oil ETF — USCF — https://www.uscfinvestments.com/uso
15. Ethereum staking: How does it work? — ethereum.org — https://ethereum.org/staking/
16. ETH.STORE Statistics — beaconcha.in — https://beaconcha.in/ethstore
17. Robert J. Shiller U.S. Stock Markets 1871-Present — Robert J. Shiller / Shiller Data — https://shillerdata.com/
18. Today in Energy Daily Prices — U.S. Energy Information Administration — https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.php

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This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.